MANDA

Abnormally Dry conditions continue to expand across the area. This excessive warmth is quite the novelty but we need some rainfall. Soils are quite dry in my area. Ground caking in areas that are not mulched.

Some big brush and wildfires across NJ yesterday and ongoing today. No beneficial rainfall over the coming week or so. Amounts generally look to be around or a bit above .25" for the next week. All this sunny warm weather is nice but we could use a soaking rain.

As I mentioned yesterday no significant rain in sight.

The interior of southern half of NJ doing well today.

Latest Drought Monitor shows slight expansion in Moderate Drought into southwest Delaware and an Abnormally Dry patch has popped up over NW NJ. Little significant rainfall expected over the next week. Only local showers expected with rather warm temperatures for April Hope this pattern changes or we're going to see a dry Spring.

Agree but the odds of getting that upper air setup in August are much less likely I would think.

Add to all of this it needs to be moving rapidly. Warm seclusion can be a slower mover (they can do plenty of damage) but to get a Cat 3 pure hurricane up here it has to be moving fast. Very much agree with a NNW movement as well, anything west of north in terms of track would be more favorable to get pure tropical system up here from an east of Hatteras location. Having said all this those western Atlantic waters are quite warm so I would think that ups the ante of a possible strong tropical hit if the right steering is in place.

Outside of this sub forum but there was an EF3 in Delaware with 140 mph winds. Not just tornadoes but strong ones! Winds to 120-140 mph are impressive for these parts. Used to be maybe we would get an EF0 or maybe a EF1 here and there but this outbreak was very significant.

Here are a few pictures of the Walpack location.

Slowly working our way to "longest day" - about 79 days to go before we start slowly going the other way. Not that I'm trying to rush anything. Have to enjoy each season for what it offers.

Line definitely off its peak now but made it right to the barrier beaches in northern Ocean County.

Neptune vicinity looks to be getting hammered.

I'm really impressed with how well this has maintained itself almost to the SNJ beaches. Can be unusual in midsummer never mind on the first of April.

Pulsing back up again. Holding together very well as it races east over southern half NJ. NNJ this was nothing noteworthy. Will be interesting to see if it holds up as it reaches the coast. Nasty looking area with some rotation moving east across northern Ocean County.

Pulsing back up again. Holding together very well as it races east over southern half NJ. NNJ this was nothing noteworthy. Will be interesting to see if it holds up as it reaches the coast.

Based on last few frames of radar the line has reached peak intensity. Last two frames showing a reduction in intensity. Still impressive but I think slightly off peak.

Another Tornado Warning issued for the area south of TTN.

Tornado Warned storm heading towards Trenton metro. Tornado Warning issued.

Line intensifying as it comes east. Light T-shower here but line intensifying just to my east as it moves east. See how long this trend continues. Radar looking especially robust for SW NJ over the next 60-90 min.

No changes to the weekly Drought Monitor for this sub forum but expansion over the Northeast sector as a whole. Even moderate drought showing up over parts of Southeast Maryland. Pattern has remained very consistent since Fall. Additional parts of this sub forum (parts of L.I. have been there for months) could easily pop into the abnormally dry category if we don't see some meaningful rainfall over the next 1-3 weeks.

Snow showers and even a brief gusty snow squall around mid-night. Coated the grass / deck but just briefly. Entered into the record as a Trace. Last flakes of the season. Onward toward heat and humidity but hopefully no drought conditions for the Summer. El-Nino looks to kick into high gear per some of the guidance by late Summer and into the Fall.

Anyone taking bets on when we next get a below normal month temperature wise around here? We're 3 for 3 above normal for the year so far. Below normal months are getting so rare. Even if they are below normal it is barely below.

Chris- I just saw this topic this morning while looking to see if the April thread has been started. I am so sorry for your loss. Such a terrible disease and she passed too young. You were there for her and she knew it and you have to feel good about that. You kept her safe during Covid which she would not have been if she were in a care facility. Time marches on but memories are forever. Always enjoy them and may they help you through this time of loss. Very sad, so sorry. Enjoy your posts, charts and stats. Great stuff always.

Added an additional .01" precip last 24 hours. Radar not looking impressive for NNJ at the moment. We'll see it line can intensify some going into late morning or early afternoon as it heads east. Event totals looking shabby from what once looked like a good soaking.

That is when I usually do it.