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MANDA

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  1. MANDA
    No doubt about it. COC is low located under the deep convection. Classic satellite presentation (time sensitive before sun sets) and outflow is getting better over the eastern semicircle, especially the NE quadrant. Pressures are falling and I believe this is the start of Helene pulling it together. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop180.html
  2. MANDA
    Interesting Satellite loop (time sensitive) as center continues to drift sw away from deepest convection. No doubt there are TS winds associated with all the convection to the NE of the LLC so I get the upgrade. Will be interesting to see if convection develops over current LLC or new enter forms under the deep convection. ULL over the Yucatan is backing NW but there is clearly still SW shear affecting Helene. Interesting to watch this develop. I would not be surprised to see nudges east in the track over the next 24 hours or so. Either way depending on how fast Helene can intensify the current track (depending on intensity) could push A LOT of water onto the west coast of FL, especially from just south of Tampa northward. Link to visible loop: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop60.html
  3. MANDA
    Same here. Anything!
  4. MANDA
    That ULL also helped to classically ventilate "John" allowing it to strengthen. Likely a major at landfall over the next 6 hours or so. The same ULL is currently generating shear over at least the western semicircle of TC9. It is going to have to get out of the way before PTC9 can start to crank.
  5. MANDA
    Just a trace of rainfall here today with a few sprinkles. At least with a heavy overcast and temperatures in the 60's it felt like Fall. I thought it was a nice day in its own right. Still leaves us wanting some decent rain but nothing really in the cards for the rest of the week.
  6. MANDA
    Intensity of this is going to depend on trough interaction. Depending on how the cut off / trough develops/digs into the Mississippi Valley it will either increase the shear and make for a more lopsided system or it could help to ventilate it if enough separation takes place. Either way I'm still thinking on the order of Francine type intensity as I suggested yesterday. The cut off / trough will also impact track after landfall. Once inland system could get pulled N to NW towards the Mississippi Valley or be allowed to slide NNE or NE towards SC/NC. Lots to work out over the next couple of days.
  7. MANDA
    Agreed.
  8. MANDA
    Very reasonable solution IMO. Can't see it land falling much further west but some room for eastward adjustments. EURO intensity looks reasonable as well. Only game in town. MDR is about as quiet as it gets for this time of year. Classic CV tracker threats are done.
  9. MANDA
    From my point of view I'm not seeing a modeled large anticyclone aloft and as @NorthHillsWx noted possible less than favorable trough interaction.
  10. MANDA
    At this point it does not look like a significant ACE producer. We will get another named system and like 6 of the 7 named storms so far this season it will find land which is pretty impressive. Land interactions and Beryl are the highlights of this season so far, IMO. Worth watching for sure in the days ahead but not seeing blockbuster potential with this. Perhaps a situation similar to Francine as far as intensity. SST's are way warm but not seeing super favorable conditions aloft, at least at this point. We'll see where we are at the end of September but something along the lines of average number of named storms and ACE would be my call right now as we move through the second half of the season.
  11. MANDA
    Like the Ohio Valley trough positioning. Hopefully the trend holds or at least any shifts are minimal. That pattern could produce.
  12. MANDA
    Agreed. However a well positioned trough moving eastward under the block could have a lot to say about how this eventually evolves.
  13. MANDA
    So dry! Not much hope of anything worthwhile over the next 7 days. Water the fall vegetables or have them shrivel away....I water. Thankful for the decreasing sun angle. This much of a dry streak 30-60 days ago would have been brutal.
  14. MANDA
    I'd keep a close eye on potential flooding issues over the hills of upstate SC and mountains of western NC. Lot's of tropical moisture gonna get lifted and wrung out over those areas.
  15. MANDA
    For informational purposes only. Every basin in the Northern Hemisphere is now below normal by all metrics. We've just started the "3rd. Quarter" so still time for anything in the Atlantic basin. MJO forecast much more favorable later next week into first half of October so we're poised to make up some ground. Will it be enough ground to make it a hyperactive season? Likely not. Another 1 or 2 quality hits could make it very memorable though. That is on the table. Anyone still thinking we get 20+ names?
  16. MANDA
    Kind of glad in a way. Has been way to warm for me recently and sunny day after sunny day is getting boring as well. I could some cooler and cloudy days. away!
  17. MANDA
    Some good early color around my area and northward.
  18. MANDA
    You have to like the upper level low (albeit it weak) in the Ohio Valley to help pull the moisture further northward. Still a ways out there so we'll see if something close to that holds / persists.
  19. MANDA
    Another video from Brett Adair. https://x.com/i/status/1834049290219532476
  20. MANDA
    Exactly the same here.
  21. MANDA
    Reed Timmer video. https://x.com/i/status/1834032549254873472 Impressive. Solid high end Cat 1. Impressive Surge.
  22. MANDA
    689 WTNT61 KNHC 112157 TCUAT1 Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 500 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Francine has made landfall in southern Louisiana in the Parish of Terrebonne, about 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 100 mph (155 km/h). A NOS station located on Eugene Island recently reported a peak gust of 105 mph (169 km/h). The minimum pressure measured at that location was 976 mb (28.82 inches). Heavy rains and hurricane-force winds are spreading inland across southern Louisiana. Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates. Another position update will be provided at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 91.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
  23. MANDA
    Looks like we should have landfall into LA marshlands south of Morgan City by 6:00 EDT update. Heading towards Houma and then New Orleans with right front quadrant.
  24. MANDA
    Looks like landfall near or a little east of Atchafalaya Wildlife Management Area then passing in between Morgan City and Houma (closer to Houma) as it moves inland later this evening.
  25. MANDA
    Maybe, but will those potentially high winds will be reflected in ground truth. Weakening systems at landfall have a more difficult time of getting max winds to mix down to the ground. Let's see what the obs. show at landfall. Still believe surge will be most impactful parameter. There will of course still be wind damage and power outages. Fortunately the large areas of marsh land along the LA coast will absorb most of the surge.
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