MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Dry week upcoming. Pleasant but dry and boring. Just glad this dry period did not hit in July.
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Traffic is building up this way as you go into Sussex County as well. Had a horrible experience at Alstede Farms many years back with horrendous traffic and place was crowded beyond words. Not enjoyable at all and have not been back since. Just can't take all that, ruins the Fall experience. Great place most of the time but from mid September to late October we tend to stay away, especially on the weekends.
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Just a horrible situation.
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Great animation of Helene life cycle. https://x.com/i/status/1840879894680780985
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https://x.com/i/status/1841151548589552072
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1,43" rainfall here for September. Y.T.D. total at 50.66".
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This is just so sad. Fear it will get worse as they get into the more rural areas of western NC. I don't think anyone thought it would be this bad. Flooding was expected for sure but I don't think anyone envisioned locally 30" of rainfall over 3 days. Anomalous blocking patterns and land falling tropical systems usually are not good outcomes but this is really bad.
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Yay for the 540!
- 1,154 replies
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- 3
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- tropics
- heavy rainfall
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Can't even begin to comprehend the anxiety associated with this. Please keep us posted. Prayers you make contact soon.
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Picked up .41" last 24 hours ending at 8am. Four day total .71". All of it light rain and drizzle. Nice slow soaking for the garden.
- 1,154 replies
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- 3
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- tropics
- heavy rainfall
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Looks like Cat. 4 damage along the coast for sure. Amazing though how most homes were wiped out to the slab (even with remains of the pilings still intact) and a few were left standing.
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I agree. I'd like to check it out for the day.
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Little light snow in Barrow, AK this morning. Currently -7F in Alert, NU Canada. We're heading into the cold season!
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Speaking strictly about wind and power outages. Track (and size) matters. Max winds and max areal coverage of power outages are along and east of the track. As it usually is landfall location and inland track are important. The people in eastern third of GA and upstate SC can confirm that. I'm thinking many in those areas were taken by surprise by the amount of wind damage and such huge areal power outages. For most a short distance west of the track this was not a big deal. Along and east huge deal. PRE was also super important to flooding. Helene moved quickly. Had there not been such a notable PRE flooding from Helene would have been far less. Just my 2 cents.
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Two day rainfall total here as of 8:00 this morning: .28". All of it went to good use as it was a off and on periods of light rain and drizzle. The rainfall along with cloudy skies and cooler temperatures making things look a little greener. Leaves are changing with some good color getting underway. Some of the maples are a a really nice reddish orange.
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https://x.com/i/status/1839548321347551518
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Don't see things like this on a regular basis. https://x.com/i/status/1839503993711525929 https://x.com/i/status/1839496312527401048
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Very safe assumption.
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Same here. Received .18" last 24 hours! I'll take it!
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Trying hard! Next 12 hours are going to tell the tale. I am questioning the Cat 4 at this point but Cat 3 seems like a solid call. It has got to tighten up overnight if it is going to take a run at 4. Sure is amazing to watch but glad I am not in the path. A week + w/o power and potential historic flooding is definitely something I can live without. Going to impact a lot of people once it plows inland. Thankfully highest surge for the most part will impact sparely populated areas. Still going to be surge issues Fl west coast though that will cause problems. Not minimizing that.
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Had periods of very light rain and mist/drizzle at times today. Did not check gauge but will do so in the morning. There were small puddles so I'm going to guess maybe .10 - .15", but just a guess. Was out and about and needed the wipers on! Whats more temperatures never got out of the low 60's all day. Was chilly and damp. Felt like fall! Not enough rain to make any kind of difference but I'll take it.
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Everything looks on track. Fully expect Hurricane status by 11:00 a.m. advisory. Center will not landfall over the Yucatan. Give it a little time to pull into the southern GOM and clear the influence of the Yucatan and we'll really be on the upswing. Surge going to be a big issue for a large area near and east of track. FL west coast Tampa vicinity on north going to take a hit. No joke...if ordered to evacuate you should go. Inland wind and flooding going to be a big problem mainly for Georgia. Expect massive power outages over a large area.
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100% correct we'll be getting no help from the tropics anytime soon that's for sure.
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Hope so. We'll see if most of that "evaporates" as we get closer to go time. I am not overly optimistic.
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Getting “the look”. Expect hurricane status by 11:00 am advisory tomorrow. Center should graze Yucatán but I wouldn’t expect landfall so it should have minimal effect on circulation / intensity. Surge on west Coast of FL could be bad especially Tampa vicinity on northward. Water will pile toward the coast and motion of Helene and associated wind trajectory will prevent it from flowing back out until center is well inland. I’d also watch for potential nudges east in TPC track over next several advisories. Maybe by as much as 50+ miles.
