MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Just torrential rainfall continuing St. Petersburg, Tampa and Bradenton area and spreading northeast across central Florida. Wish we had some surge data for Charlotte Harbor (Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda). Have to believe water is piling in. Latest radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=TBW-N0Q-1-48-100-usa-rad
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Landfall.
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Eastern eyewall has crossed the coast. Should have official landfall within an hour a short distance south of Sarasota. Water should be rising quickly now along the coast south of landfall especially from Venice to Sanibel. Charlotte Harbor should see a fast rise over the next 1-2 hours.
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Eastern eyewall should be crossing the coast by about 8:00 / 8:15.
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NWS Tampa has issued an Extreme Wind Warning. Center will be coming onshore next 60-90 min. between Sarasota and Osprey. Tampa area will be affected by northern eyewall which is very robust. All 3 counties are north of the expected landfall point and will be affected by northern eyewall. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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September Summary for NJ. https://www.njweather.org/content/atmospheric-180°-september-2024-recap
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Looks like landfall next 2-3 hours between Sarasota and Osprey Florida. Tampa will be spared the worst of the surge. Bad enough for sure but not the catastrophic 10-15' that was feared. Those numbers could be realized further down the coast to the south of landfall point down to about Boca Grande and Sanibel. Someone in that swath of coastline could see a 10-15" surge. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Nasty looking. This will be lifting north and rotating onshore. Expect lots of Tornado Warnings over the next several hours.
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Updated 11 PM track is about 5-6 miles south of 5 PM. Not much but it is another nudge south and about 25-30 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. We'll see what 00Z guidance does. Last 6-8 hours the movement has been on the southern side of the GFES/EPS ensemble cluster so even though only a slight adjustment the trend today has been for slight southward adjustments. Heed all evacuation orders!
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22Z NDFD wind gust swath across Florida. Impressive swath from around Bradenton to Cocoa Beach. Would spare Orlando the worst of it but will cover a lot of real estate just south of the I4 corridor. Would produce lots of wind damage and horrendous power outages. To say nothing of the powerful gusts along the coast in and around Tampa down to Sarasota.
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Latest track as TPC indicated in 5PM update has been nudged south. Mainly due to the notable S.E. wobble earlier. Current track is about 22 miles south of the entrance to Tampa Bay. Way to soon to call an exact landfall location and any future wobbles especially as we get closer to landfall tomorrow night would have an impact on exact landfall. Track as it stands now would spare Tampa Bay the worse of the surge. If current forecast track is close to reality the worst of the surge would be from Siesta Key down toward Fort Myers. Not minimizing in any way the impacts for Tampa area just that current track would keep the max surge out of Tampa Bay. Watch for wobbles over the next 24 hours. Serious situation so if told to leave please leave. Max surge could reach historic levels. When all is said and done this could be the costliest hurricane to strike the U.S., certainly would be in the top 3 I would think. It will be affecting larger population centers as it landfalls and then crosses the state of FL. Power outages will be very widespread and long lasting. Friends in Boca Grande took a hard hit with Ian. Surge with this could be just as bad for that area although winds would be less. Final track will determine all of this and who gets the worst of it but prepare for something historic if you are in the cone and even south of the cone in case there is another southward adjustment.
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Latest visible loop: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO2/loop90.html Looks every bit as good as yesterday and it is gaining latitude last 2 hours. Turn toward the NE is getting started.
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Memorable cold winter followed. If I remember correctly after Hurricane Belle made a run up the east coast the pattern turned cool and steadily transitioned to cold as we moved through Fall.
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Chilly morning.
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Same here. Felt great.
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Best to you. Stay safe. Good luck.
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Interesting tidbit that Milton replaced Michael on the 6 year rotating list of names. Michael was retired after slamming into the FL panhandle 6 years ago.
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Link to GOES-19 animation and two images. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-19&sec=mesoscale_01&x=785.6999969482422&y=1155.7999877929688&z=2&angle=0&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps[borders]=off&p[0]=band_03&opacity[0]=1&pause=20241007165154&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
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Some nice leaf color here. Especially the maples. Not super widespread color yet but not bad and nothing like some of the years in the recent past where just yellow & brown and down. Maples on my street and in my yard are brilliant red and orange.
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Absolutely agree. At some point pattern should adjust, has been SO persistent. Hopefully to something more favorable for more precipitation and MAYBE to something resembling a colder than normal November and/or December.
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I would think it would have some effect landfall or not. There will be a period of time where southerly inflow will be coming off land and Milton is not moving fast so I believe there will be some degradation to the structure as Milton passes close to but off the Yucatan coast for a period of many hours. We'll see. No denying the events of this morning though with spectacular intensification and textbook satellite appearance.
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Hopefully we are getting this dry pattern out of the way now and pattern can shift to something more active for the cold months. Pattern will flip at some point but to what and for whom is the question. In the meantime that is a dry looking map, especially for this time of year.
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Just a trace here from a few sprinkles. Dry pattern persists.
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Based on the data this evening I would not expect much if any changes with the 11:00 TPC package as far as max intensity or track. Maybe they nudge the landfall location a smidge north. Certainly the initial intensity will be UP.
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