MANDA

With the 500MB pattern the way it is forecast to be and has been forecast to be for days this is not a surprise. Closing off upper low along the GA coast moving ENE, tilt of the trof which was not at all favorable, kicker feature and a sloppy surface evolution this was going to be a reach for anything decent up here, except for maybe a NJ coastal grazer and maybe central and eastern LI and even that is failing. Maybe someone, Don? can confirm when was the last time we had something major up here with a 500MB low digging to the GA coast? Certainly nothing I can remember from the recent big ones. Something that far south is going to peak and occlude way to soon and would be quite a feat to get a surface feature from off the GA coast to vicinity of the BM. It can happen but upper trof would have to be going negative rapidly, very rapidly. My friend in RDU is excited, been waiting a long time for something decent like this.

Low was 3 here this morning.

Whew, I remember the 1977, 78, 86 and 87 entries very well. Within a week to 10 days of the 1977 event the bitter cold season of Nov. and Dec. 1976 and January 77 came to a screeching halt and Winter abruptly ended. I remember waking home from school in February 77 and sweating on some days mid to late month. The great Ohio Valley cyclone in 1978 was of course followed 10 days later by the Blizzard of 78 along the east coast. The Ohio Valley cyclone had record low pressure readings that I believe still stand today. What a monster triple stream phaser event that was.

I’ll take the over on 45 by Saturday morning the way some keep trying to pull this event from the ashes.

Pretty expansive snow cover. Lake Erie is essentially almost all frozen over. Lake Huron is building some ice cover. Been a while since we've seen such expansive snow cover east of the Rockies. North and even South Carolina will pickup some solid snow depth over the weekend to fill in the map even more.

Low of 4 here. I was going to post about the -17 in Walpack and I agree they could sink lower than that before the worst of the cold peaks.

18z CMC and Euro got 9/50 dropscondes in their data set... 0z suite should have them all Lifted from NE forum.

In this cold I'm happy to stay home with the fireplace going and the tunes cranking. No desire to be out in this for any length of time. Took the garbage to the curb this morning and nearly broke my neck on a thin layer of frozen slush, probably should not have been wearing flip flops though. Roads around around here are still only one fully clear lane in spots. The snow / sleet combo and the absolutely frigid temps is highly unusual around here. Salt just has not been super effective. The snow mounds in the Shop Rite lot are huge and will likely be around well into March I'd say. Cars are in the garage here and even that is about as cold as it gets in there at 40 degrees.

11.5 degrees currently with steady light to sometimes moderate snow. Windy as well. Looks like Old Forge, NY out there. Low gray overcast, deep snow cover and the air filled will falling and blowing snow. Gotta feel sorry for anyone who has had to work outside this month. Except for a several day pause in the cold earlier this month it has been brutal. December was no bargain for outdoor workers either.

I've not looked yet but that is surprising and not a good signal. I would have bet there would have been some at least some ensemble members with a decent hit.

Look at the first map in that loop, that was the model cycle that gave us the massive hit. Upper low closing off over eastern KY/TN and the trof was already starting to tilt negative. Much more the look of a big MA/NE snowstorm.

Not to mention that a closed upper low on the SC coast at 06Z Sunday is heading essentially due east. Just not a good look in my opinion. Just not closing off in the right place and trof axis which at that point is neutral is too far east. Wind max has already rounded the base of the trof. and add the kicker to that and you have an OTS solution as depicted. If we are going to get anymore than a coastal fringe up here there needs to be rather significant changes in how the 500MB flow evolves over the next several days. Not saying that is impossible just commenting on the way the EURO has things progged now.

Heads up... this map is MM, not inches of QPF. 25 mm = 1".

This look verbatim is not going to do it for us. Even a neutral tilt would be better than this.

Some peaceful pictures on a cold morning. CP and cardinals puffing up to keep warm in Kentucky.

Looks great. Can you snap the same picture on Sunday morning for us!?

My opinion on this map and on this map only....Ridge out west not sharp enough and trof too far east and positively tilted and best 500 MB HT departures too far south and east. Not much downstream to force the trof to start to swing negative in time to make surface feature come up the coast and close enough. Hence probably why the OP is OTS. If the above ends up being close to reality not a good look for us. Having said all that....still lots of time for changes....for better or worse.

Well that stat says keep your enthusiasm in check.

Surprised no Kuchera maps posted yet.

The jokes just write themselves with that one !

I still think there are others on that map that are questionable, maybe not. I'd have to believe the CoCoRaHS folks know what they are doing.

I had 30 minutes of sleet here. Storm was a minimum of 95% snow. It warmed aloft and the ratios fell.

Melted total for storm just completed 1.55". Snowfall 13.5". Storm averaged ratio 8.71/1. Started out at 20:1 then fell as the event progressed. Temperature never got above 10 degrees through the entire event. Hopefully this puts an end to the "it is so cold ratios will be beyond words" stuff. Cold surface temperatures are not the driving factor in ratios. Look aloft.

Melted total for storm just completed 1.55". Snowfall 13.5". Storm averaged ratio 8.71/1. Started out at 20:1 then fell as the event progressed. Temperature never got above 10 degrees through the entire event. Hopefully this puts an end to the "it is so cold ratios will be beyond words" stuff. Cold surface temperatures are not the driving factor in ratios. Look aloft.

What are we thinking for ratios on this next storm?