MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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I'll say this.....the visible satellite pictures off the Northeast coast Monday are going to be a sight to behold.
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Said this a few times yesterday. This is going to do better than 10:1 at times during the storm.
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Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA. Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ.
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Solidly driving very heavy amounts well into the Catskills FWIW.
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With the 12Z data so far this morning I am comfortable with my 10-15” forecast for my area. Don’t plan on any changes until after I see the mesos this evening. I think it is a good blend between the insane NAM totals and tamer RGEM.
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My forecast as of now for my location is 10-15”. Trying to stay reasonable. Banding and extent of NW push will tell the tale.
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Last night I thought I would be happy with 12”. Now I want 18” or bust.
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Watch these meso models now to see how this starts to evolve. These closer in tracks with a track to inside the BM will up the ante.
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Like the look of this. Will get the nuclear totals solidly into NWNJ. Almost go time. 12Z Mesos will start really zoning in on this one way or the other.
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If these trends hold absolutely. Going to be some insane banding as this matures.
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So sorry. Truly.
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I think the winds will break up the dendrites and slightly temper accumulations but I don't think this is going to be a wet paste type of snow that clings to everything such that it will bring down trees and power lines. Not going to be champagne powder either.
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Yes. Especially in heavier bands.
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By Saturday morning after 12Z cycle everyone was going ape shit. Remember it well.
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Have to agree. Start there and see how things look after 6Z and 12Z tomorrow. Can always go up....lose credibility if you have to drop too much.
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I'd have to say not far off the mark with 2/78. Same general evolution.
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Can you imagine if we hadn't missed 2/1 and then this was coming. Would have been a trifecta!
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Jeez! Just drool worthy.
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Normally a great track for where I am living now but back then (I was not living here at the time) this area got the royal shaft with 5-8". Deformation bands were SO intense there was massive subsidence to the west of them.
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Same here but then again everything today has surpassed my expectations.
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For my area of NW NJ I like an eventual track to near Block Island to across the Cape Cod Canal.
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There has been officially 30"+ in NJ. Boxing Day storm was one and so was January 1996. I think probably the most recent was January 2016. Had 31" in southeast Morris County.
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Great Met. Conservative and level headed - no hype. Good guy all around. Know him from his days at WOR radio.
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Normally I'd like to see the 850 low a little further west to nail interior NJ. The fact this is bombing as it goes by will help offset that somewhat eastward displacement. 850 low as shown is text book material for NJ coast, up across NE NJ, NYC and LI.
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Said this earlier. Going to be better than 10:1 ratios at times during this storm. Assuming things progress as currently indicated. You can get some high ratio snows in these deformation bands. Has much more to do with temps in the column and not just surface temperatures which at the peak of the storm should be in the mid to upper 20's. Again, assuming everything stays on track as indicated.
