MANDA

Certainly going with quantity and not quality this season.

Three day event totals: Some 7-8" totals scattered around in there. Click maps to enlarge

Mist and drizzle ended here about an hour ago. Three day event total: 1.55". Happy to have missed out on the bigger totals as well! M.T.D.: 5.46". Y.T.D.: 46.63". Making a run at 50"+ year.

Lots of discussion over the last few days about how this storm should be classified. No shortage of opinions from several respected Mets. These two X posts make the most sense to me. It was shallow warm core and it did separate from fronts for a short time. No matter what it was not your typical cold season Nor-Easter and was not purely tropical. Hybrid or Sub-Tropical designation seems best way to go IMO.

Pretty cool radar evolution of this event from about 8pm last evening through current hour. Not your classic Nor-Easter look. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Event total rainfall here so far .99". Very windy overnight. Estimating gusts to 40 mph. Winds blew hard all night. Lots of leaves, twigs and small branches down in the yard. Numerous power outages in my immediate area. JCPL reporting close to 46,000 customers out across their service areas in NJ. Southeast New England and coastal Jersey have received the heaviest total rainfall. Forecasts for a high impact coastal storm worked out well.

Great cause. Good luck!

Chewed up pretty good!

Based on latest radar mosaic you can see where best rains are setting up. Best lift / forcing is over southeast New England. As the low starts to bend back west the heavier rains should start to cover L.I. and at least southern CT. Surface low has made it pretty far north. It is already abeam of Atlantic City and still gaining latitude. Have to think this is going to take the center more towards the NY Bight rather than the CNJ coast. If true that would mean the next round of high tides tonight and early tomorrow would be worse on L.I. rather than NJ. Winds are going to pickup overnight area wide through so I'd plan for increasing power outages especially nearer the coast. Heaviest rains going forward look to be from the city eastward and north into southern and southeast New England. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_PA2/loop60v.html

Yes, the twin forks of L.I. would be the exception. A more north wind won't do anything to help out on the east end.

If there is a saving grace here so far today it is that winds have been more northerly across the area than anything else. That has kept for the most part water from piling in along the coast (especially NJ) any further than it has already. That may change some overnight as the storm turns left overnight and winds become more onshore.

Agree but they might slip it under the radar with a Sub-Tropical system designation post season.

Not that I disagree with anything from his X post but I highly doubt they give this a name at this point. They may classify it in post season analysis. They might have given it a name at this point in time IF they had had made mention of it in the TWO over the last few days. My opinion: At least in post season analysis should be labeled as a Sub-Tropical cyclone. Just my 2 cents. If I lived along the coast, especially the NJ coast I'd fasten my seatbelts. Could be a bumpy night. Long Island will be no picnic either but water could get a big push toward the Jersey coast overnight.

Highest wind gust I've seen so far along the Jersey coast is Harvey Cedars at 69 mph per NJWXNET. So far at least in my opinion things going as expected. Rainfall totals have always been the biggest wildcard with this event and at least so far they have been on the lower end of expectations I would say. Winds and coastal flooding about as expected so far but more to come. So far gusts to about 35 mph here, maybe a tad higher overnight. Rainfall so far .33". Twigs and small branches scattered across the yard. If you took away the map underlay what would you think? https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_OV/loop60v.html

Latest 2026 Atlantic basin stats: Still not at 10 ACE points. Currently sitting at 8.9 and not going to reach 10 by end of the month. Still no hurricanes. While certainly not a given one has to start wondering if we can get though the season without a hurricane. It should at least be on the bingo card. I'd give it 50/50 odds.