MANDA

First chilly morning of the coming Fall season over the Great Lakes region.

Finished with 1.63" rainfall here. Month: 3.26". Y.T.D.: 44.43", making a run at a 50"+ year. Heaviest rainfall totals from NENJ across Connecticut coast and into R.I. Isolated spots on L.I. got drenched with 3" totals. Nice this morning with a gusty breeze, low dp's and temperatures in the 50's for overnight lows across interior NNJ. Low of 58 here.

Rainfall totals OKX PNS: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off That Montclair total is amazing. The excessive totals were quite localized but excessive nonetheless. No matter what Fall delivers in terms of cool / cold it is nice to see the first Frost Advisories of the season over the upper Mid-West.

Glad we missed out on those totals around here.

Some breaks in the clouds. Rain over. As of 8:00 a.m. had received 1.01". Looks like maybe .30" in the gauge since then, will measure later. Glad the heavy totals stayed east. Doing fine on rain here. Don't need anything excessive.

The modeling that targeted CT/LI nailed the max totals.

You've had your share of "jackpot totals" this Summer.

Seems most areas seeing reasonable totals in the .5-1" range thus far. The excessive totals are more isolated. Hope your grass seed made it. Frustrating to have it wash away. Been there done that. These are amounts as of about 9:00 a.m. with the event still ongoing.

This ongoing and still strengthening El-Nino has allowed the 2026 tropical season (Pacific and Atlantic) to follow the Nino playbook to the letter and then some. If the coming Fall and Winter follow the Nino playbook as well as the tropical season has it is going to be a rough season for many in this sub forum. I'm taking an expect the worst and hope for the best approach. I think above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures (DJF) are pretty much a lock. We need to hope for a wet system to time itself with whatever cold air we can muster. Maybe we get a "big one" that way? Might be a big ask though. Maybe a more Modoki El-Nino can better save the day but think that is also a big ask. We'll see how we progress through Fall and go from there but keep expectations low. I suspect most sensible winter weather lovers are bracing for the reality that this Winter might suck.

Yeah, not so sure one is needed for this upcoming event. Seems a bit over zealous. Then again we've had a lot of local over performers this season.

Horrible. So sorry.

Especially for those who lived through it. Future generations will probably remember it like Pearl Harbor or Kennedy assassination I suppose. For those that lived through it and actually witnessed it in real time it will always be there. For me it is as vivid today as it was 25 years ago. Absolute horror. I have not been able to watch any of the video from that day since the evening of 9/12/01. That was the last time I viewed it. Just can't do it. To think what the people on those planes went through not to mention the people in the buildings.

So much changed from that day forward.

Looking at this satellite pic would you ever think we were at the peak of hurricane season? Still think we need to be somewhat wary of the Gulf and southwest Atlantic before the season ends. If anything noteworthy is going to happen it will come from the CAG with a move north into the Gulf or southwest Atlantic. Could also have some home grown system in either of those places. MDR is done for this year. We'll have to see how many more days we can go without a hurricane because as of today we broke the record for latest in the season without one. Should easily be able to tack on another 7 days I think which is pretty amazing.

My mistake. You are correct I didn't remember the front. I thought it was mostly the subsidence around Erin that gave us the clear skies. I had forgotten how dry and crisp the airmass was that day. If it was just subsidence it would have been more humid and warmer. Cold front clearly the reason for the sunny, deep blue skies. I do remember in the weeks following 9/11 it was so very dry with minimal rain to cleanse the dust and toxins out of the air and quell the smoke from ground zero.