MANDA

I'm forecasting 1" with locally higher amounts along I-78 on northward at the moment. We'll watch for subtle shifts. At a minimum I think 1/2" - 1" looks pretty solid between the I-78 - I-90 corridor. With locally higher amounts. I'll be disappointed with anything under 1". Sunny parts of the lawn not reached by sprinklers are taking it on the chin. Looking terrible. If this keeps up much longer I'm worried NJ will issue mandatory restrictions and start banning all but essential irrigation as we head through July.

Received .07" here last 24 hours (8am - 8am) with most of that from a very localized fast moving heavy downpour yesterday afternoon. Just some very light scattered showers so far this morning and it looks like that will be it for the day. We pin our hopes to Monday for something decent. Signal has been consistent for 1"+ so we wait and see.

Nice weather! Not much more you could want in mid June. Enjoy! A sampling of the coolest NJ mins from this morning.

Received .44" rainfall overnight. Nothing remotely severe but a much needed rainfall. Received .68" last 3 days. At least I won't have to do any watering today or tomorrow. Stellar morning with low dews, pleasant temperatures, gusty breeze and deep blue skies. Click map to enlarge.

Yeah. Hope it is not just some gusty fast moving showers. I have a feeling it will be more along those lines with not much in the way of significant rainfall totals.

Hard to get the heat and humidity to hit and hold so far this warm season. It gets hot and humid for a short stretch and then it is broken but a nice air mass. No complaints from me. I had been forecasting the heat to return and hold by the end of the coming week but once again it is delayed. We'll see what the closing 7 days of June bring and then into July. Just need some rain. The long term dryness still shows no sign of breaking. We'll see who gets what later today. Was initially thinking the 7 day period ending this coming Wednesday would have been wetter with 1-2" totals fairly widespread but it is under performing. The heaviest rains have stayed west from the Mississippi River to just west of the Appalachians.

Amazing photos as always Don. Really beautiful!

Scored .24" last evening in a T-Shower. Better than nothing I suppose. Air has better "feel" to it this morning. The humidity yesterday was foul. Cleaner air mass in place with deep blue skies. Still no Canadian smoke this season, that's a plus.

Missed out on any decent rainfall last night. Just .07". Additional rain chances over the next few days. Will be localized and some locations will do better than others but some heavy downpours possible in spots for sure. Another steamy day today.

Crashing thunder and vivid lightning display off to my north now. Just very light rain here now. The downpour lasted 90 seconds. Small storm fizzled as it past just south of me.

Newton / Sparta area look to be getting a good whack.

Same here. Getting CLIPPED by small fast moving storm just to my south. Brief heavy rain but moving through fast. Lots of lightning to my north and south with rolling thunder.

Much will depend on wind direction 6/21 and beyond I think. Ongoing dryness could help the heat over perform. On the other hand the lingering rather strong "cool pool" off the North Atlantic coast could temper the heat, especially along the coast if wind has any onshore component. That cooler than normal water has been persistent. We'll see if it gets beaten back in a meaningful way over the next several weeks. I would have to think it will also lessen the chances of locally intense deluges / significant flash flooding events we have seen scattered across the area over the last several warm seasons. Less moisture added to the atmosphere for our area. That area had been quite warm for the last several summer seasons.

After the coming trof does its thing this weekend and next week over the GL/OV it will lift out and we go full bore into summer pattern once to about 6/20. Still remains to be seen how much rain we get between now and then. Pattern could potentially produce but uncertain how far east toward our area it will get. Going to get steamy though with some higher dews than we have seen so far this warm season.

Starting to see signs of the "wetter" pattern around mid month. Ways to go so we'll see how it evolves but looking interesting based on some of mid to LR guidance. Could get quite steamy and soupy once to late week into next week. I like the fcst trof positioning over the GL/OV down the road. Perhaps a slow moving front draped over the east with some decent gulf moisture to work with? Details TBD.