MANDA

That looks reasonable for up in my area. I'm thinking along the lines of .10 - .20" at most up this way.

That 72 degree water temp at Duck is none too impressive.

Seems like some decent southerly shear going on. Naked swirl with bursts of convection off to the north. I don't think TPC is going to do anything with this.

I think the cool pool has been in place / developing since Spring? Somebody I'm sure can confirm that.

Also have to believe that is keeping the humidity in check when the wind is off the water as opposed to having a warm pool there as we've had over the last several years. Also have to believe that maybe the cool pool is keeping heavy rainfall events in check when conditions favor such events.

Data at my location. Y.T.D. = 33.56" 12 month 9/14/24 - 9/14/25 = 43.01" Wetter than all of the above climo stations.

Thanks Don. That's kind of what I was expecting it to look like. My perception was that it has been a drier than normal year to date and drier than 2024 and a much drier 12 month period compared to normal and 2024. It has just been dry. Barring any tropical activity for the second half of this month September I think will finish drier than normal. Not going to be much rainfall over this sub forum for the coming week.

Hi Don- Can you do the same chart for Y.T.D. and 12 month rolling? If not too much trouble. I'd love to see what that looks like. Thanks- Mike

My hunch on low off NC is no but it is going to be interesting to watch it's track and see what it delivers to the Mid-Atlantic area in terms of rainfall and wind gusts. As for the MDR region feature I'd say if it happens it will be after 9/17. Things still look less than ideal for development in the MDR. Slower development is the better hedge IMO.

No changes to the Drought Monitor this sub forum. With the rain last week, cool temperatures and lowering sun angle not as critical as it would have been back in July and August. Drought intensified / expanded over New England.

Not my favorite but manageable. This cool run has been great though.

Just entered my CoCoRaHs obs. My 9/5 to 9/8 total was 2.5". Much needed. Beautiful chilly morning with a low of 46. Lowest I've seen is Sandyston, NJ at 40.

Picked up .35" yesterday afternoon into this morning. Had .22" in early afternoon T-Shower and an additional .13" overnight with periods of light rain and drizzle. All done now. Total for month up to 2.50". Dry week ahead but these two rain events were a big help. Things looking greener. Pleasant temperatures this coming week with some chilly nights.

With 91L kaput we will likely reach the historical peak of hurricane season (9/10-9/11) with no named storm in the Atlantic Basin. ACE season to date is now below normal. We're at 39 and normal is 47. Erin is responsible for 32 of those 39 ACE points. We're wasting peak season at this point so we're going to have some catching up to do if we want to get to normal which is 122. It still can be done though so we'll have to see what mid September into October can pull off. MJO forecast to go into more favorable phases by then but we've been playing a bit of kick the can on that so remains to be seen. Gut tells me watch out for something to lift out of the Caribbean toward the Gulf coast before all is said and done. I think if there is going to be a Major hit on the U.S. coastline this season it will be the gulf coast. Chances of an east coast major hit this season are low and decreasing for several reasons. Not expecting anything to get named over the next 5-7 days.

That is a NASTY looking line of storms from southern NH solidly right down into NYC/western LI down to around Trenton. Some other nasty looking storms across southern and central parts of NJ. So far I've missed anything notable in my area but have picked up .22" from some fast moving heavier showers. Best activity and totals going forward look to be right along and east of I95. I could be mostly done around here?