MANDA

Add to that bitter cold currently over Canada which is not going anywhere fast, a deep snow pack and the coldest time of the year vs. climo and notable cold for a week or two is increasing for the central and eastern U.S. starting early next week.

I actually tend to agree with this assessment. For the balance of this season in my mind we have to kind of root for some renegade type system to break through the pattern and deliver something over 8"+ area wide with a decent coastal type track. Otherwise it is going to be lighter events similar to what we had in December. I had 13.1" here in December. The largest snowfall here was 5.5". The balance of 7.6" was spread over 7 events. Not dissing it, we had a nice snowy run up to the holiday season and a solidly cold December. We'll see what happens the rest of the way. EURO not being shy about first cold shot by early next week.

Totally get that but if the cold comes gangbusters the risk of suppression can be high. I'd add that in any type of pattern models are not going to seriously pick up on storm threats in any believable way until inside of 7 days and with the ways things have been going lately inside of 3-4 days.

I have little doubt a return to colder is coming (I've been on that train for a while) but that ups the ante of storm suppression last third of the month. Could well be we switch to cold and dry. I'm not seeing anything that leads me to believe the STJ is going to get involved in any kind of significant way. A ways to go for sure but if it turns out just cold and dry last third of January I would not be surprised. For rest of this week dry and closer to seasonable than last week. Overall the dry pattern looks to persist for at least another week to 10 days.

Agreed. The favorable "look" though always had some missing pieces in my book. No doubt it looked reasonably good aloft for a time and it was worth watching but some key pieces always seemed to be missing.

I absolutely love your spirit, enthusiasm, optimism and love of weather. Don't give up. One day the big one will come. Half the fun is in the tracking so we watch and wait. It is only half time for meteorological winter so we'll see what the second half delivers.

Is it really unbelievable? It never was much of one. It had next to no ensemble support from any model. If there was no GFS head fake the "event" would have had very little attention to begin with.

Flakes and graupel here.

Looks like the best echos are going to pass north of me, more over Sussex County. Still I think I get clipped by the southern end. Will keep you posted.

Rainfall was sparse up this way from event just ended. I did better than I thought by a couple of tenths but just NW of here it was a struggle to reach 1/4". Overall the dry pattern continues. We're going to need a significant pattern shift to get some coastal systems or inland runners to boost the long term rainfall totals. And before anyone says "what dryness" see the attached link. It has been dry across NJ for the last 12+ months. https://www.njweather.org/content/quickly-out-gatedrought-persists-december2025-annual-report

Lot's of energy expended last few days on this upcoming non event. It never had any kind of remote support from ANY ensemble guidance and the best modeling we have (ECMWF) never had much of anything. GFS is a follower not a leader. Without some kind of steady multi cycle support from at least the CMC or better yet the EURO best to ignore it. In my opinion the GFS will never be the first to sniff anything out 3-5+ days in advance. MAYBE if it has some ensemble support from its own members it might deserve some attention otherwise I ignore it. For now I'm more interested in the return to colder starting later next week and beyond.

To each his own I guess.

Thanks very much.

Yeah….torch. Not.

Hi Don. Is it possible when you get a chance to let us know the temperature anomalies starting last Tuesday through today? Say at ISP, LGA, JFK, CP, EWR and MMU? As you said the warming has peaked. Temperatures for the coming week look to me to average within 1 degree of normal. It was milder this past week for sure but not a torch in my book. Any stats appreciated. Thanks. Also if you could include monthly departures month to date?