HKY_WX

The lee side screw zone is normally confined to that area of NW Burke/Caldwell counties. Just east Blowing Rock as you descend. Normally it doesn't impact Lenoir towards Hickory from my experiences back home.

Looks like more traditional battle lines (Snow/sleet/rain), given where the HP is projected to be.

Parents have an inch NE of Hickory

This worked out. Pattern recognition for the win.

Saturday STJ wave is the most interesting looking one I've seen this year so far (that's not saying much). The 12z NAM at 84 hours has this system much more cutoff over the southwest. The thicknesses are supportive of snow/rain. Only issue could be the boundary layer conditions being too warm.If we could trend this a bit strong aloft/more cutoff, it would manufacture some cold air. Something to watch.

Which is depressing as I've always wanted to find a correlation b/n the lower Sunspot activity/Solar Min and -AO!

Story of the winter so far is the +AO. You can just look at a Northern Hemispheric 500mb map and it's obvious looking. The polar vortex is very strong/singular and it's very cold over the northern latitudes this winter. Until that changes, it will be hard to get any appreciable cold air into the south.

18z nam shifted the precip east. Will be interesting to follow tonight/tomorrow as the wedge builds in

ANyone noticing the CAD/ice showing up on the NAM for tomorrow?

Looks like LES off of Kerr lake 0b48bc22-e4d8-4c1b-92e1-af30e0770249.mp4

Def think some supercell tornadoes are possible along I40 this evening. Sunshine breaking out today has made things volatile in the Piedmont of NC.

Trend appears to be a bit east at 12z on the GFS/NAM/GEM. Not reading to much into these oscillations until it regains motion tonight.

The models are not digging the second shortwave over the norther plains/great lakes quite as much. In fact, the trend has been that direction for several runs now. It would allow dorian to curve NNE as opposed to NE or ENE. This is obviously significant for the Carolinas.

Definitely a WOOF signal on the EURO at day 10. Too early to get excited until we get some consistency, but that's a great look for a big dog. Large upper low/PV lob over New England and great PNA Ridge w/ undercutting STJ. We need a strong STJ wave to kick out.

Just made a post on my page regarding the Euro Weeklies/Extended forecast for anyone interested. Exciting times coming for cold enthusiasts...

I posted an update for anyone interested... https://m.facebook.com/TheHuffmanbarometer

I just posted my outlook for Jan into Feb on my FB page if you're interested. It incorporates the latest Euro Weeklies and MJO projections... http://www.facebook.com/theHuffmanbarometer

Thx bud, howd it work out for you folks up there? Come at me broski!

Notice the low pressure is up into central AL and GA. I spoke about this a few days ago. This often happens in STJ dominate system where CAD has setup. This always changes everyone to ice except for the NW mountains. That's why these 10:1 snow ratio maps posted all week were worthless.

Geeze that's insanity... currently camped out here in banner elk. Still a few inches of snow on the ground from earlier in the wk.

The models changes have been mostly noise at this point, from what I've seen. I'm going with the below: Charlotte: 3 to 5inches of snow/sleet followed by .25 in freezing rain Raleigh: 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet followed by .5 in freezing rain Boone: 1 to 2 feet of snow Asheville: 8-12 inches snow/sleet Greensboro: 6-10 inches snow/sleet with a light glaze of Freezing rain The worst freezing rain will be on the transition line as always, which will run from south of Charlotte up to southern Wake County. Anyone on the 31-32 degree side of this line could see as much as an inch of freezing rain. I could see this happening in the zone from northern SC towards the Pinehurst area. My main analog continues to be Dec 4&5th 2002. The only difference is the s/w appears to be a bit further south this go around, resulting in a bit more snow/sleet vs freezing rain. Still favoring a Miller A/B hybrid, which will result in a sleet changeover for many areas.

Very reactionary from GSP. I don't know why they even issue those this far out.

I favor the Control run over the EPS. As it shows No snow for Ji and NW DC Metro.

I wouldn't cliff dive just yet, as the NAM isn't in its better range quite yet 48hrs in. Bad News: That said, it definitely displays what I've been saying for a few days. We're in early December, this is a STJ driven system (85% of it), and this is not a Miller A system. This will have some significant icing involved for some folks (IP/ZR). Those 24 inch totals were never viable outside of the NW mountains. Good News: I think concerns about precip totals are totally unfounded, as this a large amplitude wave with strong STJ connections down to the equatorial regions. There will be no shortage of QPF (2 to 3 inch totals) are likely over a large swath of the state. How much of that is Snow/Ice/Rain is the question.

A few tidbits to keep in mind on this one. The global models are notoriously bad at picking up on mid-level warming (aka changeovers to sleet/freezing rain). I wouldn't get too giddy with any of these precip-type maps until we get into the NAM range. It's generally the best when it comes to the full top-down thermal profile of the atmosphere.