HKY_WX

Don't disagree.

I'm texting with Allan and he referenced the ukmet. Holy snow batman.

Yeah didn't see too much on this run.

This is comparable to those dallas fans I saw praying in the stands.

The main diff b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch.

It's definitely notable the EURO is the most amplified model currently. That usually means it's noticing something the other models aren't due to its superior resolution. Since we now have a prior storm to compare this one to (Trend wise), I would say the GFS will likely trend towards the EURO (at least a bit). That said, the fact that most of the other models are farther east would lead me to believe we won't go to a Miller B solution. IMO this storm evolution is likely to start Thursday night as the arctic front drags through. This will setup a stationary thermal boundary somewhere near the coastline. Which the following impulses will ride. The main question is what happens on Saturday as the main PJ impulse dives down? If it amps like the euro eastern NC get's ice and western get's snow. And visa versa if it's more suppressed. The euro is also throwing in the chance of a last minute phase solution which could be good for eastern NC from a deformation band/back end snow scenario. The I think by tonight/tomorrow the models will start to converge.

GFS is kinda like Dak prescott. Sucks when it matters.

I'll take my chances with this if I were in the triangle. That's a pretty classical SLP track for central/eastern NC. The upper air pattern with the late phase also sets the stage for a bombogenesis scenario over eastern NC where you can get caught up in the deformation axis and get some stupid totals.

Theyre on the wrong side of the wedge brah.

Happy for my west nc brethren. The pattern looks good for more. Still 28* here with zr/ip north of wake forest

Gorgeous storm

Tornado outbreak in Fl blowing up on Twitter

Lil less than in inch here in wake forest. Hvy sleet right now

Forecast

Stop toying with us bean

The UL being a few hours slower will prob result in more phasing with the PJ s/w coming in behind it. This would just mean a more juiced up system down the road similar to the EURO.

Really just depends on sleet. Could see anywhere from 4 to 10 inches.

Any of you guys have a davis weather station or some similar? I've been thinking of getting one for months but might bite the bullet and do it. Any recommendations?

That's like 1 flake bro.

Smart. Mooresville might be far enough north for sleet to save the day and save you from zr.

Roanoke looks safe from zr. Prob most snow to sleet to snow.

I think it's time people from Greenville, SC - Charlotte - Concord - Burlington start prepping for a high impact system (tree damage/extended power outages/etc). I know the snow is what people want, but there will massive power outages in that corridor. Still not sure how far east that will extend. The NAM seems to peak RDU's ZR around .4 to .5 which is enough for damage but not like .75-1.00 ... I hope I'm wrong and sleet saves the day.

IMO the main prob is the 50/50 low is swinging out of the NE/New Foundland Area a bit too fast (That's why I was harping on this a few days ago). In a true SE snowstorm, it tends to hold longer in that area forcing/suppressing the systems over the east coast.

Here's the prob' for the snow crowd. The 500mb Low is far enough south initially, however it starts to lift NE too soon instead of swinging through the piedmont/coastal plain. With a stacked UL low, you just get too much warming aloft in this scenario for a pure snow event. The best hope is we get enough overrunning/lift ahead of the system before the mid levels start to warm up as the low approaches. In most of the state, the mid levels start to torch after 12pm Sunday.