HKY_WX

To reiterate this. The NAM didnt leave any energy behind in the southwest resulting in a full lattitude negatively titled trough aka phase. We need that energy to be captured by the northern stream for this to work out.

Yeah the NAM is pretty ideal for eastern NC. I could throw out some analogs to those 500mb maps, but theres no point in jizzing yourself unless we see some additional model support.

Def would like to see the other mods start following suite, however if you think back to the coastal bomb a few weeks ago... The NAM had the amped solution first.

If you could play the NAM forward the SLP would probably track towards or just off Hatteras which is a great track for central/eastern NC. Eastern VA/NE NC would likely get smashed. Still, need to see some additional model support or continued trends towards this. The euro actually trended more favorably aloft at 12z, however it didn't really manifest itself at the surface.

Yea the clock is ticking. We need this euro run to be favorable.

The trough is a bit too positively tilted to throw enough moisture back (at least in the southern Mid-Atlantic). The best bet on this one is for the northern stream to continue to trend a bit stronger/further west. That enables it to capture the southern energy (there a few different ways this could happen though). This would draw in a little more gulf moisture and also result in a quicker phase which would tilt the trough more negative and allow the SLP to track closer to the coast. The chance is there, but again the odds aren't great unless we see some solid trends soon.

I would still rather have the euro in my corner as well. In general it's still the best in the medium range.

I'm not forecasting anything as of now, but the models never look good until they do. If all you do is look at the ensemble statistical output you're just a modelologist. Nothing more.

Boom

Certainly possible but the ridge axis out west is in a good spot for a Miller A coastal system.

This is a favorable trend on the GFS ensemble mean for additional/earlier phasing. Who knows if it will continue.

This setup is not overly different from this past weekend with the large +PNA ridge out west and incoming PJ s/w from Canada diving into the plains. The euro shears this shortwave out enough to delay the phase which ultimately results in some backlash snow showers over eastern NC as it wraps up and pounds the Northeast. I will say this, there isn't much margin on the Euro/GFS between flurries and 12+ inches. This shortwave has some serious potential if it were to cutoff/phase earlier (of course theoretically they all do I guess). Still a solid 4 days out and time to trend (in either direction). Lastly I will say this appears to be the end of the pattern that has provided us a pretty solid January of storms. These great patterns have the tendency to end in a bang (Although that doesn't necessarily mean your backyard will get hammered).

Light ip/sn mix in wake forest.

Def favorable trends in most models over the last cycle or 2.

Ill go with the following HKY: T-1" CLT: T-2" GSO: 1-3" RDU: 3-5" ORF: 6-10"

The key is to get this s/w to trend/dig back southwest. Notice tonight's 0z stopped the trend eastward. We're just running out of time.

NAM finally bucked the trend this run aloft. I think the east shifts may be over. We shall see.

No worries guys... its getting late... But there always the ICON. AKA the ugly girl at the bar.

That looks like the same trend as the Panthers win total year by year.

This is trending towards a cold front lol. Hoping it reverses tonight. Tough pattern to get amplification without a 50/50 low or any blocking.

Euro looks weaker/east. That's been the trend in todays 12z suite. Just a more suppressed look since yesterday. Need some favorable trends tonight in order to avoid a nuisance event.

The 18z RGEM took a big step towards the Euro. I think we're about 2 or 3 more runs from a general consensus.

NAM was going to be similar to the 00z euro. To me that idea is still on the table. I think we're about 12 to 24 hours away from a censensus.

This does kinda feel like a Rocky Mount to Hampton Roads jackpot type scenario.

Euro is leaving a little more energy back this go around in the southwest. Will prob be a bit further east this run. We may be seeing a bit model convergence this afternoon.