HKY_WX

Cheers fellas. To NW trends! 20250121_201636.mp4

1/4" 19* light snow here west of Franklinton NC

Heavy dandruff here in Franklinton

Models have come a long way, but we still got room for improvement.

My first obs from the deep south snowstorm is we got no hot water. Frozen pipes here. The joy of bitter cold.

Following up with a totals map. I think we'll continue to see a slow trend NW with the precip shield up until gametime on the models for the reasons I suggested above. Timing will be important tomorrow in NC as temperatures will be below freezing and anything that falls will start to impact the evening commute immediately.

I'll post one later tonight

GFS Wed lows in the deep south. Snowcover. Prob overdone but crazy

If I fart, it snows in boone

Lol u guys sound like spurned lovers.

The euro/gfs both are showing some signals of a large split flow stj low 10 days from now. This is a big dog ice/snow look . First one I've seen in the extended that gets me interested (1st real big dog look this year). Worth mentioning since both the gfs and ec show it.

This what i'm thinking currently. Will update with some totals tomorrow night. I don't expect any dramatic jumps with this system at this point as the pattern doesn't dictate such, but a trend NW as we get near gametime wouldn't be unexpected (if not expected given the last 2 systems of note). I've noticed the GFS has had a bias of overshearing STJ waves recently until it self correct within 72 hours. This is one reason for the last minute corrections we've seen with some of the models. From an NC IMBY perspective, my location of Choice would be somewhere around Greenville NC to Kinston NC. Not sure I would expect historic snowfall but moderate to major for that area in NC. The totals in LA/Southern MS/AL could be historic however.

The primary trend that led this in a positive direction is the Polar Vortex over Canada. Notice how the heights are trending west a bit. That allows the polar jet wave over Minnestoa/Dakotas to drop in behind the STJ wave. This promotes a more negative trough access(aka the warm moist firehouse is now pointed NNE instead of ENE). It doesn't take much to change the QPF shield in this scenario given it is mostly dependent on overrunning and an isentropic lift scenario. This also lends credit to the idea when Arctic Airmasses drop-down out of Canada they tend to move like a bowling ball and error a bit west on the models.

00z Euro Ens has been the best performing initialization run/model in Jan verification data. So this is definitely a positive step.

Gfs trend for the current new england system. Each run is valid for 7pm Sun.