8 out of the past 11 winter enso’s have been negative. Since 1996 15 out of 22...need some +enso’s to get rolling. Tired of all this northern stream junk.
18z GEFS qpf mean. I would take this verbatim...mood flakes. 0.5” is at HAT, that’s only about 200 mile west shift at 5-6 days. We have seen then inside 48 hours from start time, just a few weeks ago and last January.
That’s it...that’s all I could muster. Well I guess the good news is the GEFS and EPS agree on a wide right miss next week. Model consensus is always good.
Wish the Euro would run before the other models, that way we would know whether to bother looking at the GFS/CMC/Navgem/Pokemon.
Only 10 more days until we get back to our normal warmth and hopefully we don't see another BN winter day until 2020.
This one was never going to work out for us, glad it’s going beast mode so some folks can see snow. Not everyone can be happy...it’s going to suck for someone.
For Raleigh this sure is a cruel way to start this winter after last January bust....NAM/GFS both shows 30 hours of mid/low 30's of really cold rain.
http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Krdu.txt