packbacker

Whoever punted January...hard to argue with that. Ready to punt this whole winter if we have this for bulk of Jan. -AO/-NAO and we torch.

GEFS = train wreck...punt till Feb 201x

From your locale to mine we are in the "have nots" since 09...actually pathetic looking at everyone around us killing it. #snowhole Why I am not overly excited about this upcoming potential...

Feeling a EPS letdown in about 30 mins.

If Dec is our coldest winter month...

EPS wasn't as good as 12z but we can still make lemonade with this. Though we may have to sacrifice something for luck...like a chicken.

First time enso 3.4 is positive since spring I would guess, granted this is what SV thinks per daily reading so it may bounce back a little negative.

LOL...you called it. EPS backs off on the extended NAO and SER is stronger. 0z vs 12z yesterday.

Be nice if another global ensemble was somewhat close to this....GEFS is closer then GEMens.

Cueing up my Lucy/football gif...we all know how this works.

That was one of the coldest/wintery EPS runs I have seen. No Atlantic ridge, 50/50/NAO. Active.

Holy crap.

That's a pretty good spot for the PV lobe to be...let's see if the EPS agrees. Though a little further east/south would be ideal. To bad we don't have just a little ridging out west...

Wheres the day 11 op euro when you need it.

GEFS still showing snowy/icy potential in the day 10+. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut...right?

12z GEFS had some interesting changes after the day 10-12 cold shot. Finally starts to build a ridge out west but just off the coast so still a -PNA. When looking at the +QBO/wNina v/s the +QBO/sNina the 12z GEFS and CMC-ens is kind of in between. The wNina has a better Aleutian ridge that builds poleward and almost connects to the scand. ridge building toward Greenland and the sNina don't. Both composite sets have a atlantic ridge but the sNina combines it with a SER so the SE is much warmer, which is what the GEFS shows. Obviously we want the wNina pattern as that gives us a chance, the sNina patter doesn't. I don't see why come mid Jan we aren't in the wNina/+QBO pattern....but then again, we do suck. The sNINA/wQBO v/s the w/Nina/wQBO really diverge in Feb, the sNina is a furnace and the wNina's are very wintery.

GFS strat is always fun too. Seems just a tad overdone...

CMC looks good.

What did he say?

This is what GFS thinks Dec will finish up as. I guess those warm seasonals were correct after all. Dec was supposed to be our coldest month....

This is a safe place...punter is cued up.

Yep...transient cold shot or two in Jan. Typical blah Nina. Good news is Jan looks to be another AN month for RDU, would make it 8 in a row.

EPS says we go back to conus warmth fairly quickly after the day 11-13 cold shot. Cue the cliff jumping gifs...

He has the SE AN for evey month. He has as a bloodbath for Jan-Mar the plains eastward. He is very smart. Been lot of momentum by a lot of winter forecasts for a warm winter. http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/

May 2017 I believe. Need to work out the kinks though it seems to be block happy