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packbacker

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Everything posted by packbacker

  1. packbacker
    It's awesome when JI trolls us....especially when he tells us how great the GFS is.
  2. packbacker
    We got this to look forward to....looks slightly cool after this miss this weekend.
  3. packbacker
    LOL....I noticed that more and more about social media "mets" it's taboo to discuss model runs or upcoming cold or warmth or really anything that would seem contrarian.
  4. packbacker
    Yep...15 years ago last time we had a good snow event that missed the MA. Point was if we get snow typically they will too. I just hope someone gets snow out of this whether it's us or not.
  5. packbacker
    Like I said...we aren't getting a snow storm before the MA gets there's. Just like Lions can't beat the Packers. We will always have the Navgem which was crushing snows for the SE in its 12z and 18z runs.
  6. packbacker
    That won't happen...that I can guarantee. Raleigh hasn't had 10" the past 5 seasons added up.
  7. packbacker
    Can't wait for the NW trend so the MA to BOS gets there 10-15". That's always enjoyable.
  8. packbacker
    So all 3 globals show light snow by day 6. Wonder what's JB is going to say after seeing that Euro run...
  9. packbacker
    So the CMC and GFS both show snow within the next 6 days, with ensemble support...lets see if the Euro can join them. What could possibly go wrong....
  10. packbacker
    LOL...your winning so far this winter. This sure is a lot of work for what at most will be a 1-2" snow event.
  11. packbacker
    That was as wintery a day 6-8 ensemble run on the GEFS as we can hope for. But, still days 6-8...we can screw some winter patterns/storms up fairly fast. Until it's inside day 5 on both the GEFS/EPS then I won't get to sucked in.
  12. packbacker
    Heartbreak starts tomorrow's 12z runs. Euro is going from supression to jackpot then we know what happens after that.
  13. packbacker
    DGEX has been consistent
  14. packbacker
    LOL...well the 12z Euro/EPS was a big rainer for us and then 0z Euro/EPS was a cold/dry suppression. So yeah, hard to get to excited with that model agreement. Odds are high this 12z suite is different too. Until we get some run to run consistency it's hard to get excited about anything.
  15. packbacker
    LOL...That is crazy....but true. DGEX snowfall maps never get old.
  16. packbacker
    Dec will end up being fairly stout SER, I think Jan could have just a strong SER with some ridging up into the Atlantic. But, yeah, fairly close.
  17. packbacker
    Well...another Dec AN for the SE. That's the 7th consecutive AN month for us and the 6th December in a row. Come 2020 we will get a new climatological normal and these AN months will soon just be normal. Come on Mac, get us out of this mess. If I had money I would put it on Jan being AN.
  18. packbacker
    GFS/GEFS 2 wave scenario I guess could be on the table. First wave comes out, rain for us, but lowers heights and drags front down and then 2nd wave comes in. Wow was talking about this I think. Not good when your putting your eggs in GFS baker but you could argue fast flow lends itself to this. The two wave scenario would be fun for whoever it hit as it could hit the same area back to back.
  19. packbacker
    SST's are neutral now but still Nina forcing. CFS weeklies say that continues until end of Jan and then potentially changes. Who knows...but based on Euro Weeklies it probably agrees based on its week 3+ changes.
  20. packbacker
    Yep...would be my guess. I definitely don't see Jan being BN, I see it being warmer then Dec for the SE. I think Feb could be ugly, if Nina is still driving. If Nina forcing backs off maybe +PDO with blocking can help, ala 1960. If you look at 1960 Feb-March temps you see what I mean.
  21. packbacker
    Personally think this will end up being an Apps runner, maybe transfer over NoVA. The stronger energy holding back with deep west coast trough....doesn't equal winter storm for us. Weaker wave with stronger Atlantic blocking gave us a chance...it's trending away from that.... Nina climo...last Jan was Nino climo with SE and east coast event.
  22. packbacker
    JB is convinced that just because the EPO is so strongly negative that with AO/NAO looking to go solidly negative is enough to kick the trough east after next week. 60/62 has had a lot of similarities to what we are seeing, but trough for the most part stayed in the west that Jan and we battled a SER. Both of these winters were weak Nina and wQBO.
  23. packbacker
    Actually the day 6 and 7 h5 was fairly nice looking and was thinking it would at least be as good as the 0z but then the Atlantic block retreats quicker day 7-8 and that was that. Still looks like it's burying more energy in the sw though. Just thinking that climo favors TN up to NE with such a strong - PNA.
  24. packbacker
    Good news and bad news on the EPS.... Bad news says we are a cool rain next Fri-Sat...good news we won't have to worry about tracking a storm for a while. Still hope we get a 1-2" sometime...but with winter supposedly getting progressively warmer into Feb I am ready to pull my money off the table.
  25. packbacker
    CFS weeklies look great after the MidAtl 12-18" next week....
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