packbacker

Interesting... PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS NEAR N FL/GA SAT MOVING TOWARD SE NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OVERALL THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS MUCH STRONGER AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO CONSENSUS. THE SPREAD REMAINS, GENERALLY, IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE ITSELF. THE 00Z ECMWF AND LESSER SO THE ECENS MEAN KEEP WITH CONTINUITY OF THE LAST DAY OR SO OF SLOWER SOLUTIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE REST OF THE SUITE WHICH GENERALLY IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS. WHILE THE SPREAD IN THE TIMING REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE MODELS WITHIN THE SPREAD SEEMS TRADITIONAL OF A PATTERN THAT IS BECOMING BETTER HANDLED OVERALL. AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR SECTION...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A GREATER PHASING WITH THE DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE TILT TROF AND THEREFORE IS DRAWN NORTH/EAST MORE AND MAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. THIS IS A KNOWN NEGATIVE BIAS OF THE NAM AND THEREFORE IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. AT THIS POINT A NON-NAM BLEND IS PREFERRED TRYING TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CAMPS...THOUGH WILL FAVOR MORE TOWARD THE FLATTER FASTER SOLUTIONS IN WEIGHTING. CONFIDENCE IS STEADILY INCREASING BUT REMAINS NEAR AVERAGE.

FYI...this was the meteo from the Euro last night for Raleigh...not even close to rain. I could expect at 12z to see some "MIX" instead of "SNOW" in an hour or so.

Well the NAM's were worrisome, the UK/GFS ticked NW. We will know in about 45 mins what our fate is with the Euro. But, I don't usually use the UK for temps...nor would I use the GFS. It's Euro's storm now.

You suck! Every winter event it's either you or me that gets the snow....I have been getting my butt kicked overtime. Like the Cleveland Browns of snow.

GEFS 12z (left) v/s 0z (right) snowfall mean....sucks this will trend to a rainstorm for us.

Well RDU looks to be all frozen on UK but probably mixing with sleet. QPF still about 0.75"

We didn't want snow anyways...the ground temps would have ruined everything...

Will know roughly in 10 mins.

Well I was right about jacking max QPF but wrong about all the rain we are getting...LOL

UK shifted much stronger and just off the coast...can't be good for thermals.

Yes...but give me a few until I get better maps. The GFS is almost a perfect track for us, QPF max, but barely all snow, from what I can see. To bad it's SE of where it will end up. I am putting all my apples in the Euro basket and the UK.

Canadians must not have gotten the new upper air data, if anything the 12z GEM looks a little weaker, like the RGEM did.

Well I think whatever the Euro shows today will probably be a good bet inside 36. It will have all the upper data so hopefully we can squeeze some sleet and 1-2" of backside snow.

The new upper air data must have really thrown a monkey wrench into things. Darn upper air...helped us at Boxing Day, kills us here.

Amazing...what a disaster 36 hours out things usually fall apart for us. The Euro is going to be a mess for us...I guess we shouldn't be surprised, we never learn. Good news is our weekend won't be a complete lockdown for us.

I don't know, a 30 mile NW shift now and we are mostly rain. Still 36 hours out...that's an eternity. Last time we see GFS run with this type snow for us.

It's over...GFS shifted NW and we are tainting, by this time tomorrow we are 35F and rain. GSO to RIC to DC will jack...same ole same ole.

Said yesterday...hug the least snowy model. Cold rain incoming....

Que the Lucy gif...thank goodness I am in meetings all day and can't watch the train wreck 12z models come in.

LOL...why I wanted to wait until 12z runs today, the shift was going to happen. I thought after the Euro/EPS ticked SE we wouldn't have to worry about this. Oh well, it's just snow :-)

Just like Jan 2010. At this point I hope it runs up 95 and we just rain.

LOL...we should have known this would happen. ColdRain was right...cold rain on the NAM's.

Well this NAM run has that low a hair stronger again. Uh oh...

3-5 would be awesome!

Don't think we rain, I hope, but if we mix with sleet then that means we are in qpf max.