winter_warlock

Love to see a snow map for that. Looks juiced up!!!

LWX talks about upcoming storm... They are kinda taking it seriously By the end of the week and especially heading into the weekend, the upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Model guidance is still very much all over the place in regards to exactly what comes of this, but there is growing consensus for an area of low pressure developing across the south-central/southeastern CONUS. Depending on when and where that area of low pressure develops, as well as where it goes after it does develop, there could be significant wintry precipitation across our area sometime next weekend. Uncertainty remains with this system, as there is some potential that strong Arctic high pressure could suppress the system south. However, that high (~1040 mb Arctic high) is also a source of very cold air; this likely remains in place due to a favorable -AO/-NAO blocking pattern. Meanwhile, there are an increasing amount of ensemble members that bring significant wintry precipitation to the region due to an amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The low may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend. The latest ensemble guidance is certainly on the upward trend in that regard, but that doesn`t mean it can`t swing back in the other direction. It will be key to monitor this threat closely in the coming days as the different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and upper air obs. Current model spread indicates an axis of significant snow/ice could be as far north as Upstate New York, or as far south as the Carolinas

As always Randy ty for the PBP brother!!!

Agreed!!!

Definitely a improvement

Baby steps!!

Some people say ice some say suppressed lol

Why? Still got 150+ hours to go. Too early to move on

I'm picking up ur sarcasm

Well everyone is saying the AI models performed the best so that's the side I'm leaning ... For now ...but subject to change

This sub would crash !!

Bring it on Brother!!!

A 4ft BECS?? I can live with that!!

My total today was .3125 inches about 5/16th of an inch . Brings my season total to 3.2875 inches so far

FWIW. From a respected met Mike Masco..about the upcoming storm ANOTHER STORM SIGNAL NEXT WEEKEND? As one storm exits, another is already on the radar. And once again, the AI European model deserves some credit — it sniffed out our most recent storm well before any of the traditional, physics-based guidance. Now the AI-EURO is back, flashing a storm signal for a southern low tracking east across the country NEXT WEEKEND. What the model is showing: Phasing of the northern & southern jet streams over the TN Valley as a northern shortwave diving in and infusing southern energy. This creates a surface low tracking along the arctic boundary in place later this week. We consider this track a classic “Southern Slider” setup with plenty of cold air in place to the north with moisture binding against the gradient. What could go wrong? 1. Too much cold air → storm suppressed south (big snow for the Deep South) 2. No phasing → weak, disorganized system 3. The model is… full of it (and we crowned it too early) Why this could be legit: 1.MJO heading into Phase 8 — historically favorable for eastern U.S. storms 2.Guidance is very bullish on cold air, usually tied to strong thermal gradients 3. Blocking signals showing up on both the West Coast and western Atlantic

Yeahh I agree..i don't think with the cold dome that ur gonna see a lot in the way of mixing

I'm cautiously optimistic.. very cautious...only cause we've been burned before !

Mine too. Gotta love Clint!!!

Yeah the second Feb 2010 storm was a biggie too!! And It came right after the bliz of Feb 5th 2010... Man that week was the best winter week I ever had!!

Would be 26 years to the date of the Jan 25th 2000 storm

When bob chill comes around shit just got real!

We're overdue !

Yes it was i got 17.5 Inches at my house in Baltimore county MD

This is me when l look at the GFS model

I'm hoping the good Dr.King can use some of his divine influence tomorrow on the day we celebrate his birthday! and help the Gfs see the same thing the AI models are seeing!!