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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    @wxmeddler I think bc you let us know about the Dr U convo you were gonna be low. I sorta expected that too, unfairly.
  2. psuhoffman
    Looks like the gfs only the CAM version
  3. psuhoffman
    Not saying it’s right but the range thing isn’t why because it does things that lead to this result in just 24 hours. Now the it sucks issue might be why.
  4. psuhoffman
    I actually like the 18z rgem slightly better than 12z. WTF I’m out. I need to find something less stressful and more reliable. Oh I know I’ll start rooting for the local sports teams!
  5. psuhoffman
    Ok rgem calms my soul some
  6. psuhoffman
    I had hoped 12z meant we finally stopped the bleeding. But what’s come out so far 18z resumed what had been the trend prior to 12z and in most cases lost all progress from 12z and ended worse than their 6z runs! hopefully rgem/gfs/euro come in bucking this trend but so far a major amp trend with the primary across 18z
  7. psuhoffman
  8. psuhoffman
    These 18z runs continued that trend...that wasn't the issue...the problem was around hour 36 they go berserk with the primary to our west and amp the system like crazy. A little better high and damming won't offset that. That's like throwing a couple poker chips on one side of the scale and then dropping a piano on the other.
  9. psuhoffman
    wow what did it show 12z for this area then because it cut our snow in half on the publicly available maps lol
  10. psuhoffman
    problem is that's it...the warm layer has blasted all the way into PA by then...so pretty much we all end up with 6-7" which is fine for DC but for places NW of 95 it took away 6" of snow from the last run that had 10-12" in places
  11. psuhoffman
    NAMs don't bother me, the jump around run to run like crazy...but what do you know about the RRFS because it looked great at 12z and just want WAY WAY north... I don't know enough about it to know whether that should bother us or not
  12. psuhoffman
    Hopefully the RRFS sucks
  13. psuhoffman
    Both NAM's were colder and better out to 36 hours then went off the rails...once they got into less reliable ranges.
  14. psuhoffman
    High was a little further south with better damming signal into the mid atlantic this run. Minor but we only need minor improvements here
  15. psuhoffman
    includes sleet
  16. psuhoffman
    Finishes looking at the HRRR
  17. psuhoffman
    This is what I am thinking
  18. psuhoffman
    I definitely understand taking a step back. And I hope the health thing has been resolved! The kids are doing good, getting too big too fast. Hope all is well... maybe I'll do another BBQ this summer...it's been too long!
  19. psuhoffman
    You came to the right place... you will find everyone in here is very sympathetic to the plight of Boston
  20. psuhoffman
    I think the euro improvement, when taken along with all the rest of the 12z guidance...was more than just noise. Keep in mind we are not going to see some massive jump every 6 hours from here on it, not on the euro anyways...not this close in. But the changes I see on the euro are consistent with the changes I saw across the rest of the 12z guidance, so I think even though its an incremental change...its safe to say it's not just noise.
  21. psuhoffman
    They get higher ratios, they will be fine.
  22. psuhoffman
    Where you been friend?
  23. psuhoffman
    Euro was kind of the model the most "in the middle" so it makes sense it would change the least as we get convergence among the others...
  24. psuhoffman
    With the euro to go (and obviously that could change things quite a bit) this run has been the first time I saw legit improvement across the guidance and not just grasping at noise level changes. Until now I felt each run was a very slow bleed in the wrong direction but 12z was an actual improvement across everything so far imo.
  25. psuhoffman
    It has trended warmer...and some of the warmer guidance like the GGEM has trended colder...they are meeting in the middle...for us right on the line where exactly that middle is means a lot
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