psuhoffman

Yea but that's just normal. We were on a heater from 2014-16 where we hit an unusual percentage of threats. Since we have been below typical maybe. It evens out. Even in great years they don't all hit. Did you see the euro seasonal. We will have lots of threats this year. And hopefully some will come without a NS death pinwheel off New England to suppress them. I'm banking this won't be the only time the stj throws something like this at us and some will hit.

You could see that NS vort coming though and how it was gonna be in the way.

I think there is a trend now. It's just not the trend we wanted. I still think this will do the typical adjustment north the last 48 hours. But it might not matter now.

The nam is actually south of the gfs even. Wasn't a good run imo.

Compare the nam at 84 with the ggem run from this morning. Not even close. In any way.

I dunno that looks like a brick wall still in its way. Look at the h5 from previous stj storms. We need that confluence at least 100 miles north of where it is. And that is trending south not north.

One trend is bothering me. I assumed the stj system would end up stronger and pump heights in front more. But the northern stream is trending even more suppressive to our northeast offsetting that.

Not so happy hour tonight

The last 48 hours has been frustrating. If you wanted any improvements there were none on the whole. But if we just wanted to get it the 4th quarter close that happened. It's within striking distance from here. But I'll admit it's been frustrating even for me. Even tonight if it stays where it is I think we have a reasonable chance. But I think tomorrow is when I want to see subtle improvements or else I'll start to lose some faith.

I laugh at the people that say "I'm out". As if their not going to look at the runs then next few days praying for a miracle.

Well he knows!!! Give that man a cookie.

We need some SREF up in here stat

I saw a verification chart a few years ago. Better than the ggem op and at this range the gfs op. But slightly worse than the gefs.

Just looking at the h5 it looks pretty ugly to me. Maybe the worse run at h5 in a while relative to what we need. In every way. In the end the NS was slightly more suppressive (that's been a trend across guidance and it's offsetting improvements in the stj wave) and less phasing.

Like I've been saying I just want a hold. Tomorrow is when I want to start seeing better trends.

I doubt a 1036 high over my house is a good thing.

Where has access to off hour EPS? Just wondering.

No one ever posted the 6z euro. I know the op only goes to 90 but the 6z EPS goes out past there. But very few have acces to it.

Yea the moves in the gfs and Fv3 the last 24 hours are noise imo

So far I think the last 24 hours have been a complete wash with narrowing of the outliers as we get closer the only real trend. But we're right where we where with the target just south of us and needing some combination of better phasing and relaxing of the NS flow to our north.

Is it time for the SREF yet???

You pokin the bear huh? Let me know how that ends

After last nights weeklies I'm surprised they didn't just close until April.

@BTRWx's Thanks Giving sorry this took so long but I've been busy. During happy hour yesterday there was talk about "what we were looking at" to see the fv3 was likely coming north early on in the run. This is definitely a simplified version but I highlighted on the runs below for the same time from 12z and 18z how it was evident that it was likely a better run. Look at the red and purple lines. The red line is somewhat indicative of the depth of the stj wave and the ridging it is pumping in front of it into the mississippi valley. The purple line is a rough estimate of where the northern stream is diving down and will act like a wall to block the northward progress of the ridging and the storm. If you pull up both maps and toggle them back and forth you can see how there is more ridging ahead of the stj system in the miss valley AND that the northern stream is more relaxed to its north...look near Michigan. It's nothing major but those are the kinds of minimal changes run to run that are making the difference here.