psuhoffman

Get rid of that lobe diving down from Hudson Bay and we would have been good.

We needed the 50/50 and that lobe rotating around to trend weaker/north and it trended stronger/south. That simple. Ironically given the improvements in other areas had that situation simply stayed the same as it looked 72 hours ago we might be in the game now... the storm has pretty much stayed where it was despite the issues up there because of a stronger stj wave and the typical correction towards a healthier precip shield on the north side. But those changes cant save us because the confluence keeps trending south every run.

Yea the h5 looks a hot mess! There have been marginal improvements in the precip shield today but the H5 look has actually continued to degrade away from what we want for more then conversational fringe snow IMO. The issues over new england have only trended worse and the upper level situation in the midwest looks a mess.

Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse. Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours...

You sound like you need a therapeutic snow chase. I have way too much going on in life now to do it or to even get that worked up about it anymore but back in the day when I would get to where you seem to be and was about to go full tilt I would just do a snow chase. Take a couple days off and pick the next big storm and go get myself my snow fix. Maybe that wouldn't be a bad idea.

If your point is that this is subjective....well duh. Some think something is funny and others thing its stupid. I am probably guilty at times of posting "banter" in non banter threads. But I try to not have it distract from the flow of the thread and side track the conversation. And if I am told to stop or knock it off I respect the wishes of the moderators. Maybe I still go too far for some but there are others who would and have completely derailed a thread if they weren't reigned in. Someone has to moderate. We know what kind of mess it would become if there was no moderation at all. And moderating is subjective, but they are doing the best they can to manage the desire of all the members and best create good discussion in all the threads. This seems like no big deal... you can still have the banter stuff just during storm mode do it in banter thread. "But some people get away with it" seems like a weak sauce argument...what next "life isn't fair".

You seem to doubt the role chaos plays in all this. March 2017 a departing 50/50 leaves 12 hours too soon and we have a big sleet fest instead of a blizzard. January 2018 the ridge axis out west is about 100 miles east of perfect and the NS phases 6 hours too late and we get flurries instead of an HECS. Early March last year the northern stream vort dives in about 50 miles northeast of perfect and NJ gets a blizzard instead of us. March 13th a northern stream vort dives down at the wrong time, 12 hours faster or slower and we get a MECS but it crushes it instead. Everyone gives up and then a week later we get a snowstorm! We could play this game with everything. Some of our HECS storms could have been ruined had one little thing not gone right. It's like a golf swing... so many things have to be right to get a good hit...one little thing wrong and it can screw it all up. As for 1980... this looks like a good pattern...January to March when the action was... great blocking...but I would say the -PNA could have been problamatic, and the trough in the Atlantic is a little south of idea...could have indicated suppression...but honestly you can't say that for individual storms looking at the h5 pattern mean. It was just as much bad luck at the time of each storm as anything else. We are really only talking a couple of HECS storms that hit the southern mid atlantic. If just one of them crushes DC and it was a historic winter.

At least it seems the south trend from yesterday has stopped and perhaps we are seeing a slight nudge north now...but all we are doing is getting back to where we were the last few days.

Assuming there isn't a south trend and its still looking about as it is now...I wouldn't even totally check out after 0z. God knows we have seen weirder things happen...but after tonight we would be heading into needing a January 2000 and March 2001 type bust territory. It's still close...but I really am not liking the trend in the flow over New England. We need that to relax and it seems like its coming in stronger each run.

There seemed like some minor but noticeable shifts north in the confluence through about 78 hours and it did cause a minor slight bump northwest. BUT... after that things ended up the same spot anyways because that lobe of the pinwheel up in the NS dove down even stronger and south (again). That feature has been trending worse and worse over the last couple days and its offsetting the (minor) improvements in other areas that may show up run to run. A lot of those improvements are what I was kind of banking on to give us a chance but that required not having a degradation of the flow in the NS. If we look at where the confluence is up there its not even close really...we need it to back off quite a bit to match up with where it was in storms that got significant snows up into our area. Possible I guess but its going the wrong way right now. The only thing I could see that could change this equation that much would be if the models are all just totally messing up the phasing and that upper low in the Midwest phases in cleanly instead of holding back and acting like a kicker. That could pump heights in front enough to change the equation...and that is the kind of complicated thing that perhaps all the guidance is struggling with. But that is a pretty low probability. However, the issues to our northeast seem even less likely to resolve themselves. I know its the NS and those vorts are hard to pin down but its that whole lobe rotating through quebec that is the problem not any one individual vort...and no matter how the guidance handles those vorts that whole mess drops down and squashes everything every run. To me that indicates that unless we get a phased bomb this just isnt' going to work.

It's not THAT FAR off synoptically...phase the piece in the midwest... and get rid of that lobe up over quebec and its an HECS for us. BUT....close doesn't count in snowfall

I think we know our fate... There is time but things are bleeding the wrong way right now right when we would expect to see the positive changes if this were likely to go well.

DC still had 20.1" in 1980, it wasn't a total disaster, but suppression in several big storms prevented it from being epic. DC was on the northern fringe of several storms that were HECS level in the southern mid atlantic that year. It was even worse up here, my area also only had about 20" which for up here is a pretty awful disaster of a winter... It was kind of like 2010 only with NC/southern VA as the target and DC on the northern fringe...

NAM looked pathetic for the NAM. That's as much analysis as I am willing to do.

see my post about expectations! agree I would love to have some kind of get together this winter, its always hard to organize but even if it's a small gathering I am down.

I am getting worried about you, seriously. You seem traumatized by the last 2 winters. The problem is what just happened isn't that unusual for our climo. I just want to make sure your expectations aren't out of line with reality. We just had 2 straight years with less than 10". Yea that sucks but that has happened 6 times in the last 30 years. Its not that unusual. We had one stretch with 3 straight years below 10" in the last 30 years. (2006/7 to 2008/9). It wasn't even close to the worse 2 year stretch, in the last 2 years DC had a total of 11.2". In the winters of 2012 and 2013 combined DC had 5.1" and in 1997 and 1998 DC had 6.8" total. Over the last 30 years DC's mean is only 13.9 but worse the median (a much more accurate way to judge normal) is only 10.1". In the last 30 years DC has only had more than 15" eight times. More than 20" 5 times. DC has had less than 10" in a season 14/30 times. So the odds of having a single digit snowfall year in DC is almost 50% any given year. Yet every time it happens some here act like its some epic snow drought or they are Job and God is putting them through the trials or something. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but snow is not normal here...its not supposed to snow around here, its an anomaly. It happens frequently enough that there is always hope and its worth tracking it to me...(even when I lived in the DC area) but the truth is most years are not going to be all that snowy and for some people that need to "win" frequently to enjoy this hobby maybe it's not for them. I am not telling anyone what to be happy with or what they should like or not like, or to track or not track...but you do have to know climo. Its not healthy to have expectations that arent realistic. Expecting 20" of snow every year when the facts say that just isn't going to happen is just setting up to be frustrated all the time. Now in reference to this year specifically...we are already on the board. Our snow climo is awful until after xmas. It is WAY too early to be making judgement about this years potential based on results. Plus nino climo is better later. We can hit climo with just a couple storms. And those storms typically come mid January on in a nino. Any snow before then is just a bonus. Try to calm down and just enjoy the ride. I think we will have plenty of chances this year. But not all of them will hit. We will have more fails to come. And overall way way way more threats fail than hit. That is our climo. Try to just expect that and then be happy when something goes right instead of expecting it to snow and being frustrated when it does not. Otherwise you will drive yourself crazy.

Don't take this as hostile, I like a good debate, and I want to challenge some of your points, but I am not trying to shut down your ideas or the exchange. I have been wrong plenty of times. About this time of year I thought 2012/13 was going to be pretty good and it was a disaster. The next year I was kind of meh on 2013/14 and it was a blockbuster so... I am no authority on long range, and of course I am biased towards my own clearly stated opinion that this year will be good. I am actually as bullish as I have ever been at this stage. But some of your points seem to contradict. First those seasonal forecasts are means. There will be relax reloads within the pattern. Additionally we can score snow without a total breakdown. In both 2002 and 2010 there were periods where we went on a run and both years looked very similar. It only take a few storms in our area to get to above climo so a blockbuster year doesnt mean wall to wall snow all winter. But if you have a good pattern enough of the time the odds are stacked sooner or later you will get lucky. You say we need a relax then reference a "transient NAO"...doesn't that conflict. If you want the nao to "break down" to get a storm why would a transient nao be a problem? Especially if the pacific pattern is favorable in general. I am not sure why you think it will be transient though. It has been in fall but in a nino the NAO tends to become more negative as the winter progresses so saying its transient now has little predictive accuracy for later in winter. I am not sure what your point with the WAR is... we have generally had a good storm track the last couple months... it just has been too early. Right now I wish we had a little WAR, but the problem is we have a -3STD negative anomaly in the western north atlantic and its crushing the flow along the east coast. If we had a WAR this storm would be cutting not being squashed. I have seen nothing that indicates a WAR to be an issue. Matter of fact just about all guidance places a negative anomaly there. If anything I have an opposite worry, if we fail I could see it going down like 1980 where several big storms were squashed south in a weak nino pattern. I could see that kind of fail more than a WAR cutter type fail for the winter. Again I could be totally wrong here just wondering why you see those specific things as issues.

What specifically about the pattern and or key pattern drivers have you not liked?

The problem is it's not just one vort that's the problem. It's the larger scale vortex that's placing the NS train of vorts through New England. If one isn't there another one comes along. The whole thing needs to lift more but instead it's been trending south a bit over the last 72 hours and it's totally offset the positive trends with the stj that I expected. The whole configuration up there could be off but that's a bigger get than one discreet vort being off.

How quick they turn on you lol

I posted the euro seasonal in the long range thread just now. I figured we could use some cheering up.

I don't want to write a post mortem when the storm hasn't happened yet but the northern stream can be an issue in any pattern. In a nina more so because the stj is typically weaker and the NS stronger. So that stacks the odds that with vorts flying by it's harder to get phasing, or to get the jet to buckle under us. But the NS is always there and bad luck with a mistimed vort can mess up a threat anytime. There is no pattern where every storm will hit. In any winter no matter how good some will cut and some will be suppressed. If this plays out the way it looks it's just bad luck imo. If that upper low set up 200 miles further north we would have been fine. Finally we need some suppression. Without it we rain. We're not far enough north to typically win without some suppression. But the areal coverage of snowfall is small in a global sense so too much of a good thing and it squashes. Not enough and it cuts. It's just a matter of getting lucky. This was a pretty good threat. Just too much "blocking". I know some said there isn't but the way the jet is configured right now to our north it's acting like a defacto block. But give this this kind of pattern a few more times and I'll take my chances we hit on one. From range there is no way to say though. The differences at h5 between a D.C. hit or a close miss isn't significant. And the model error is too significant to say from range exactly where confluence will be. Don't know what to tell you other than this hobby is a roller coaster. Try to enjoy the ride.

Yes it's always a good idea to set the bar at equaling the snowiest year on record.

I feel ya but climo wise we shouldn't get a 20" storm this early either. It's a fluke anomaly either way.