psuhoffman

The north edge shifts north 90% of the time at the very end.

Why did you leave?

You're a ray of sunshine

Lol

Similar gradient through central PA and NJ with the Feb 5 2010 storm.

It's early December...surface temps (when not yet saturated) are not always the best indicator of the depth of a cold air mass or of the flow at the mid and upper levels which have more to say at determining storm track and snowfall. That said your concern for places south of is on the coastal plain is legit. It's close to mixing if things break 1-2 degrees warmer. But I think dewpoints suggest if they will be ok. Inland on the piedmont and the mountains make no mistake this will be historic for them. Keep in mind a 10"+ storm is historic for places south of DC outside high elevations. A 10" storm in Richmond would immediately jump into 16th place all time. 13" would get into the top 10! A pretty large area of northwest NC and southwestern VA west of the fall line is going to get 10-15" with some localized places pushing 20. That's a rare significant event for that area. I wouldn't dismiss it so readily.

The contour gradients aren't the same.

The south move 2 days ago meant the typical 50-75 mile north trend at the end will just make this an epic tease.

I was kind of subtly referencing that from yesterday. They went way out on a limb with that one!

Sounds easy to me 0-8". Boom

If I were south of D.C. I would still have an eye on it because you never know. How often have we seen a sneaky band set up north of projections 24 hours out. But for the rest of us any north trend only makes the miss more painful. Helps that it's early December and I have a lot of confidence we will get ours this year. If I was totally healthy I might consider talking the wife into a family snow road trip down 81 somewhere. Southwest VA looks like a good bet right now for a nice foot of snow and an easier escape then NC.

Lol that will only make it hurt more

It's not actually north at all it's just faster.

Thanks for the well wishes everyone, really... love all you guys!!! I am doing a LOT better. Not 100% yet but finally well on my way. But this wasn't meant to be about me. The mods and admins do a great and often thankless job making this place possible and we all get so much out of it. Today one of them had to put up with some crap from an idiot and just wanted to make sure they know the vast majority of us appreciate what they do and that it does make a difference.

Meteocentre has 18z ggem?

100? Pfft lame. I did 101" in 2010. It's 120 or bust this year!!! I do wonder what our max potential here is. I didn't think 100 was even realistically possible but we didn't even actually max out in 2010. A couple threats just missed.

Yay Vice Hiatus is back! Funny how he disappeared when Scud was around.

I don't mind the random silliness we have. The newbies. Even the chronic gloom crew. I actually find our eclectic mix entertaining. But Scud added nothing and he was a total jerk towards everyone. His comments towards mappy were sexist and inappropriate and it was apparent he was doing it all intentionally. He quickly entered a short infamous list with idiots like Carbondale...He won't be missed.

Thanks. And good luck with your bronchitis...whatever is going around this year it's really kicking people's a$$. They said several people were having the same illness I was. Especially people with asthma.

It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least.

Thanks. I am getting better. Breathing is starting to feel normal again finally. Just need to get my strength back. Hopefully by the time our big xmas snowstorm hits I will be fully recovered and ready to build snow forts with my son. I wasn't going to say anything but I do hope everyone that puts time into this knows how much it means to me and others. Thank you.

@mappy @stormtracker @WxUSAF @H2O And all the other admin and mods... I wasn't going to say anything about this but given what Scud did and some of the tension today I thought maybe I should. I am recovering and will be fine but for the last couple months I've been very sick. I caught one of those respiratory viruses similar to the one that unfortunately took the life of the UMD student. In conjunction with my asthma and my stubbornness to take off work and relax I ended up pretty ill. But being on here...the discussion, debates, banter, humor, and camaraderie was great for keeping my spirits up and boredom down. I'm sure I am not the only one who values the work you all do to make this possible. I just wanted to make sure you know it doesn't go unnoticed. We are an online family and hopefully a few jerkoffs don't make you think you're not valued and appreciated. This was from last month. The nurse asked why I was laughing and I got a weird look when I told her it was something someone said on a weather board! They just don't get it I am sure there are many others who this forum has helped in some way. Or it's simply an important part of their lives. Thank you for making that happen!

Take a look at the H5 map over New England.

Sorry you had to put up with that. He was a grade A jerk. But enjoy your break from the insanity here. This happens everytime we have a big miss. Mini melt downs commence. Just early this year.