psuhoffman

Patience grasshopper

The strat stuff is interesting and frd I love your updates so please don't mistake this for me saying I don't like your posts...but some are placing way too much emphasis on just the ssw. We have had some extremely snowy periods without a ssw. We have had blocking without a ssw. There are tropospheric forces that can disrupt the PV and we have seen those working so far also. The long range seasonal guidance was already predicting a blocking pattern well before a ssw was on the radar. There is also a chicken or the egg factor here. And I've seen some mention that there may be some correlation between a ssw and warm mjo phases so there might be a link between our warm intermission right now and this ssw. But before the mjo and soi decides to throw up on us for 2/3 weeks the pattern was progressing just fine. And it now looks to resume where it left off around New Years. Now this is like all volcanoes are mountains but not all mountains are volcanoes. Yea a ssw is a good thing. We need a weak PV to sustain a block but not every ssw results in a nao block and not ever nao block is from a ssw. Additionally the obsession with the split is irrelevant to our snow chase. I think I would actually prefer it not to split. A severely weakened and perturbed PV is good enough and more predictable and stable. When the underlying factors are lined up favorably anyways stable is good. A total split could lead to a lot of volitility and perhaps even make it harder to get a stable favorable longwave pattern to lock in. Yea there could be some crazy results like a superstorm or arctic blast but it might not be here and it's less likely to be a stance 5-6 week pattern. Be careful what you wish for. We don't need exteme. Everything is lined up in our favor pattern wise to begin with. This stuff is fascinating and it's great to track and a ssw can help but I don't think it's the end all be all some seem to be making it.

At least it's not whacked out all the time. But you can tell us what that's like.

EPS starting to get colorful day 10-15

Aren't you under water yet?

Unfortunately we were overdue for you to chime in.

Everything is right on track. Today's EPS day 15 is amazingly consistent with the weeklies for the same time from the 0z Monday run. For a 15/18 day prog this is amazing consistency. Yea the trough over the Conus is weaker but the look that matters for the pattern evolution up top is identical. Same in pna nao and epo domains. The pattern is progressing exactly as it's supposed too. Todays EPS for Jan 4 weeklies from Monday for Jan 4

You funny

That's fine. The core of the lower heights in the NW are offshore finally and west of Alaska, ideally would like it a little southwest of there still but its OK. The atlantic side is getting right and we see the -NAO starting to build. We are still left recovering over the CONUS but as the blocking continues to build up top the pattern will improve. The ensembles will rush things from time to time and we will see a run that jumps right to the end result a little too soon and get excited then some will be let down when the next run reverts to a slower progression but things are still on track. The analogs and seasonal and sub seasonal guidance suggested that around the 15th on is when it should get really good. That is the 5th right there and the pattern is already on its way. From there we are likely only a week away. Don't rush things.

End of GFS run looks ugly over the CONUS but good things starting to happen up top. That would quickly lead to a good pattern after. Hopefully we can score something from the threat around New Years which isn't the actually good pattern setting in IMO but a transient window of opportunity as we transition.

It will likely depend on where the boundary sets up following the cutter around the 28th and then the timing and spacing between the waves. But its certainly possible, we have scored in worse looks. Things look to continue to get better from an overall pattern perspective after that so plenty of action coming soon I think.

Psychiatrists should lurk here and then make targeted troll posts just to push prospective patients into their chairs.

It's universal across all guidance right now. Euro weeklies and seasonal, UKMET, JMA, CFSv2, even the lesser known JV squad stuff I've seen has the same general look to it. And now the start of the transition is showing up at the end of the ensembles. And it's supported by the current SST analogs. Low solar. Strat stuff... there is absolutely NOTHING to say "uh oh" right now. Even ground truth...we HAVE HAD SNOW...and its still early. I guess maybe that snow didn't count because it was November? I dunno. I suppose after the last 2 years some people just won't let themselves feel optimistic until they are measuring their first warning level event. I am less jaded perhaps because I think of it this way, we have spent most of the last 2 years in a crap pattern. It's not like we were getting skunked during great blocking periods. When we finally did get good blocking (transient in March 2017 and an extended period in March 2018) we got a pretty good sleet storm and a pretty good snowstorm. And had those periods come mid winter probably would have done even better. We have not struck out when we had good patterns. We just didn't have good patters enough. So this worrying seems over the top to me. But I've said my peace so I am done trying to convince people to relax and be optimistic for a bit. If they want to continue to freak out have at it.

Last winter wasn't even that bad for Baltimore. We had a decent event in early December. A couple minor events in early January and one in February. And a borderline warning level event in March. It was actually about a median snowfall winter here. People to our southwest in Northern VA have way more reason to complain about last year than we do. But you keep talking like it didn't snow last year. Do you know where you live? It doesn't snow that much here. If you need like 2 feet of snow in a winter to be happy you might want to move.

May I suggest another possible stress reliever... if you can maybe take a few days or a week... leave it open, and then go on a snow chase. If you have the ability to wait until a specific storm and then just take off and chase great...but if you have a week you can get some time off during winter odds are you can find snow somewhere. If the trough is out west go to the rockies somewhere. If its in the east go to Vermont. Go spend a week with 3 feet of snow on the ground and see snow falling most of the time and come back refreshed. If you need snow for your mental health then go get it...because you seem close to a break down right now.

They are all boogeymen right now because the pattern change is still a week away from even starting. And probably another 1-2 weeks after that before it matures and we really see what we're dealing with. So at this range it's impossible to see the details (like exact location of vorts and where exactly the PV is located at any given time) that would determine our fate for each specific threat. So you are worrying for no reason right now. From range all we are doing is looking for a favorable longwave pattern. Getting heights at the steering levels in places that favor a trough in the east to get storms to track under us. There are certain markets (-AO/nao/epo, +pna) that indicate a favorable snow pattern and that's all we're looking for when it's 10+ days away. Here is the rub...once we get a favorable pattern, all that means is we will have legit threats. That it can snow. But each specific threat will have details that will determine exactly where that storm hits. It could hit richmond or D.C. or bomb late and crush NYC to Boston or cut inside too much and be an interior storm. And there is no freaking way to tell the small specifics that will determine that from 10+ days out. If I showed you the mean h5 pattern for 3 days before a storm that just missed us vs one that hit you won't be able to tell the difference in most cases. Things like a 100 mile difference in confluence or a NS vort suppressing at the exact wrong time, or a slight weakness to the north of a system that lets it cut 50 miles too far west and we go to rain...won't be easily apparent in a general pattern. And it won't show up at all accurately on an ensemble at range. Vorts move around hundreds of miles run to run at range. Your freaking out about stuff that is impossible to know at this range. Now the good news is all indications are we will get a prolonged favorable pattern. Perhaps 4 weeks or more. Maybe even mid January to March. The longer we have a favorable longwave pattern the more chances we get. They won't all hit. Even in 2010 we missed some. But if you have a good pattern for 5 weeks during prime climo and we get 5 or 6 threats it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on them all. Could we? Yea. But even these "epic fails" you bring up we got some snow and ended up near normal or even above median snowfall. They were just disappointing because they had epic potential and fell short. But it did snow. We didn't go 5 weeks with a -nao and got totally skunked. If we get unlucky and things fail so be it. How about we get the great pattern first before we start worrying about the luck regarding specific threats. And maybe you should take a break. This doesn't seem healthy. When I was younger I would let this affect me too much and had to step away from time to time for my own good. Why are you worrying so much now over things that might not happen later and are totally unpredictable? Your just making yourself stressed for no reason. If it fails then be upset. Being upset now just because it might fail seems unnecessary.

It better snow soon. If it doesn't they might burn me at the stake by March.

I know your point was ok. I'm not actually frustrated just making fun. Everything looks on track. Good. But the pattern getting good is still too far away to get into details and people are just speculating and inventing boogy men to worry about. I'll worry once it's actually warranted. Until then this is silly.

Ok I'm out. You all have fun for the next 2 pages worrying about it being too cold now.

Looks identical to last run in that regard.

Nice uptick in snowfall on EPS towards the end of the run. Also likes the idea of maybe something around New Years.

@Maestrobjwa You neee to relax. Consider this...if as I suspect we get good snow in January/February you are worrying and driving yourself crazy for no reason. If we fail then you are making yourself miserable for a month more than you have to be. Either way your worrying for no reason since it hasn't happened yet and you have no control over it. So just chill.

@Bob Chill I know we can find ways to fail in any pattern but some of this stuff people are finding to worry about has me rolling my eyes. For years everyone was saying "hope we get a modoki nino" and now we have one, everything looks on track, by all observable measures things are lining up exactly how we want...and some are inventing things to lose sleep over. The pattern advertised on seasonal guidance and analogs looks great and the kind of discreet issues that can ruin any specific threat can't be seen at range. So they can drive themselves crazy with every fail scenario and I'll just have faith we will get our chances and some will probably hit. And if they all fail I'll be disappointed then, no reason ruining my mood now over bad things that haven't yet and probably won't happen.

The hemispheric energies are too low.

EPS heading the same way as the gefs. Remember gefs goes out another day...