psuhoffman

The euro was kind of jumping right to the end result. The cfs weeklies get there but a week slower. They look a lot like the euro at the end early January. I think we still get there either way but maybe the analogs that suggest it's January 15-20th on are going to be right.

Many of our best snow periods came during a -epo and -nao regime. That is what seasonal guidance has advertised for Jan and feb. Thats why many are excited. A -epo + nao pattern is "ok" but not something to be that excited about. Sometimes they work but often they are better for places north of philly and ice or mix to rain events here. It's difficult to get a -nao if the epo ridge is too extreme as that would tend to favor troughing downstream in response. But if the epo ridge isn't too extreme you can get a ridge bridging across into the nao domain too. That's actually our ideal look for snow in the mid Atlantic. It requires an extremely weak PV and negative AO but that's what the idea was. Furthermore the EPS doesn't show an epo ridge. It simply lost the ridging on both sides so I have no idea what your post had to do with my comment on the EPS.

So this.... what the weeklies (and cfs/U.K./jma) are all showing, is impossible?

Lol dont see an epo ridge either on that map There is that too lol. But I was simply dealing with his statement. Not sure what it had to do with my EPS comment. This run simply consolidated the PV over the pole and lost both the epo and nao ridging. Probably just a bad run given all the trends the last few days.

An epo ridge dominant pattern is colder but way less snowy than a nao blocking based pattern. I'm not in favor of that trend.

Yea this pattern change seems like a fantasy. The euro can't even agree with its weeklies. This winter is reminding me of 01-02 where jb promised a pattern change and when it finally happened...it was December...2003 Calm down. It was one run. And it wasn't awful, could still head in the right direction, but it wasn't a positive step for sure. On the whole things still look good. Mjo heading towards cold phases in January.

It lost the blocking look

First thing I've seen in a while that bothered me even a little. Just one run. But it lost the progression up top completely.

Not a good EPS run towards the end. Hopefully just a bad run.

There is definitely a strong signal that the day 10-15 period in general is a threat but the GEFS isn't locked in on one specific event. There are several waves in that time period. The one around the 30th really isn't looking good. Most are rain. There is a better hit rate with the next 2 waves around the 1/2 and 3/4 but a LOT of the snowfall on the mean is from a couple HUGE hits on the ensemble. There are then a lot of minor events where we get some snow on the front end before a chance to rain. Then some total misses...not a large percentage actually showing a big hit yet. I think we could score something as the pattern establishes but we all know that often we do better later once the pattern matures. So it wouldn't surprise me if we have to wait a little into January before we score...but I like everything I am seeing right now.

Gefs likes the threat after New Years better actually

If we do get a blocking regime (starting to look very likely) I'm not that worried about that. It would be a bigger problem in December or march but in January if you put high pressures across Canada and a general flow into the eastern United States out of the north and we can create enough cold over the Conus to get it done. Won't be arctic or anything but cold enough to snow with a favorable storm track.

The blocking looks too strong I might get fringed

Amounts seem to taper along with averages across the area though. So I am near the 12" line but my climo for the next 6 weeks is probably about 10". D.C. is about 10" but climo is about 6" for that period. Richmond is 6" but climo is probably about 4. So the whole area is above average snowfall for the period on the mean snowfall.

This might be the most I've ever seen on a euro weekly snow mean. It's usually very close to climo. Getting it to be almost double climo for the D.C. area for the 6 week period is pretty significant.

I have a bucket and a hose if you need help.

Visuals Jan 7-14 Jan 14-21 Jan 21-28 Jan 28-feb 4

Euro weeklies are an Ian worthy.

Understatement of the year. They look amazing January 10 on. And almost an identical look every week through into feb with no relax in sight. Never seen anything like it on guidance honestly. I actually like this run even more than last. Same general idea. Perfect blocking. Less suppressive look the end of January into feb through. We don't necessarily want a big blue ball over us to get snow.

It's more people on twitter than here that are over the top with it but since some of those posts come up associated with links here I wanted to make sure people don't get the impression that we're sunk without a ssw associated PV split.

Your strat updates are great and save me the time of having to search for the stuff. And I wasn't meaning you are making too much. I totally get that your just tracking it. I just hear some people talking about it like it's going to save winter or how it's going to lead to this or that and now some obsessing over split vs no split and I want to be careful we don't put too much into just one factor. That said things look good. Keep beating down the PV by whatever means necessary and it can only help!