psuhoffman

I still am thinking this evolves towards a stable favorable look later but the 6-10 day period is starting to interest me more. The formation of a ridge bridge across the top is now universal at day 5 across all guidance. It's only 120 hours not some day 15 dream from there we will have a window of opportunity but with a weak fractured PV and minor vortices spinning around under the blocking good luck nailing down specific threats at range this look is close to our big storm analogs get the vortex over Quebec to the east a bit into 50/50 space and that's darn near ideal. Or move it west and allow more ridging ahead and it can work too. But that's close enough not to sleep on the period. Its december 26. The pattern looks good the first week of January. After that the sub seasonal guidance suggests it gets even better towards late January. The pessimism in here has me confused. Things are going about exactly as I expected and we are still on the right track to having a good winter imo.

One last thing. The guidance didn't "tease" us and then pull it away next week. From range they showed a -nao +pna pattern the first week of January. But from range discreet threats cannot be seen. People assumed that 1 there would be a storm and 2 that look was the start of a longer term -nao pattern. Now thar guidance can see beyond it indicates perhaps another relax before going into a better stable look. And despite the favorable pna and nao the guidance has not yet identified a real threat. So people are acting like the models faked us out. But they didn't. This is the gefs now. It still shows the great h5 look it did when it was at day 15. Just because your yard didn't get snow doesn't mean the guidance was off. Not all good patterns lead to snow!

I'm with you. And I think the chances of lucking our way into a front end 1-3" on a west track or some weak follow up wave that clips us or a clipper once the epo goes ape next week...is pretty good. But I also know that won't even come close to satisfying the "doom and gloom" crew. For then it's warning event or bust and I really think we probably have to wait a bit longer for that. Not definitely. Flukes happen. But the most likely time for a truly epic snow period is and has always been from about January 20 on. You are completely realistic in your expectations. Some others...not so much.

Absolutely great stuff you posted as always. Amazing how things have evolved towards what HM and some of the other experts predicted with an initial wave leading to a PV collapse later. The bottom line is the PV continues to be weak and under assault and is likely to remain so as we head into prime climo.

You and anyone else has every right to be pessimistic. But don't go all revisionists history to enhance your point. Most have been targeting the second half of January and February from the beginning. I know I've not budged. At times a threat has teased and there is always the chance something hits before the ideal pattern evolves. While the analogs greatly favor Jan 20 on for snow a few had fluke snows before that and no two years are the same so it's worth tracking in hope of a early hit. But 99% of the predictions were for most of the snow to come the second half of winter. That's nino climo. Nothing is going wrong so far. This year is playing out exactly according to climo expectations so far. We had an early cold period and nearly got the one big early hit some nino years feature. It just missed. Boo hoo. Then we got the late December warm period that is almost universal across ninos. Myself and others said we should see the signs of the pattern starting to change by New Years. We are seeing it already. But it's not going to flip right to perfect. Now I don't know what some had as expectations. Maybe some simply heard "above normal snow" and then had visions of a white Christmas and beating climo by New Years and now they are disappointed. But those expectations would have absolutely no support from modoki nino climo or the vast majority of seasonal forecasts. Didn't you jump when we didn't get a foot of wet snow on Christmas?

You're cherry picking bad runs. There have been several runs that gave us snow. The euro spit out a big snow a couple days ago. Yesterday the gfs and Fv3 took turns showing a snowstorm. If what you mean is the models haven't been consistently showing a threat run after run, that's not going to happen at range in a progressive pattern. Outside 100 hours storms will shift around run to run. That said I'm not as impressed with the prospects the next 2 weeks as some. It's not a shutout pattern and we could luck into one of these waves but epo dominant patterns aren't a lock for our area this time of year either. I still think our best chances are late January and February.

There was a 6" storm up here just before that period that was rain in the cities. But other then that you nailed 87.

@EastCoast NPZ would have hated 87. Nothing until late January. Then the February storm was awesome but all melted a day later. I was living in NJ then and we had about a foot. The day after we had to travel to harpers ferry wv for a baptism. By the time we got to Maryland there was barely any snow on the ground. By harpers ferry only piles. I remember I assumed they didn't get as much only to find out from my uncle that had had 16" but it all melted in a few hours that day because it was so warm.

This

Yes. The whole winter was really that. There were 3 storms in mid to late January. One hit nw one was region wide and one was the SE half. Then a big wet snow event mid February. But that was a blockbuster year. By today's standards I bet the boo bird crowd would give it a B- at best. Lol

People loved 87 but there was nothing until after January 20th that year. Same in 78 and 66. We seem to be getting more picky. I just want snow. I don't care if it comes in June.

It's coming. I haven't wavered on late January or February at all. Way too much evidence (between the analogs, seasonal, and sub seasonal guidance) to bail on it. But there was a point where I had some hope maybe this was one of the more rare ninos that flipped cold and snowy sooner. And while I do think we can easily score during the transition periods odds favor the really good stuff being Jan 20 on. I'm totally ok with that but some are going to be ready to burn this place down if we don't get a decent snow in the next few weeks.

Gefs has swapped with EPS and is now the better look long range. Pna ridge east of ideal but this is close to a good look here normally id be upset about the war but with such a epo and pna that could actually save us from suppression

Fv3 agreed with a Jan 2 hit

The EPS took a step towards the gfs in the day 5-10 today so maybe it will capitulate after also.

How quickly we forget lol. But other than March last year your right. Been on a long run of positive nao. Amazing we have done as well wrt snow the last 6 years given that fact actually. Since 2013 we are running above normal despite constant +nao.

I like the gefs look long range better. Not cold but it's close to a great pattern for getting big storms to track under us. The EPS gets the Pacific right then the Atlantic goes to crap. The EPS is a cold/dry look.

Gefs looks ok moving into the second week of January. Heights building over Canada and up over the pole. Ambiguous over the Conus but get it right up there during prime climo and I would be shocked if we don't get results.

I'm not worried. I think we probably go through a 2 week period where it's flawed but serviceable. It fits. We got a minor snow early January in 2015, 2010, 2003. 1987 there was a storm they just missed. Gave my area 6". With luck it could be more then minor. I just lol at the people being uber picky about when and how it snows. Like they forgot where they live. I'm not an overly religious fellow but I do get this image of a higher being somewhere hearing that and saying "ok fine no snow for you".

If the December storm hadn't hit 2010 was a 2 week winter. Lol. I think our window is longer though. Probably 6 weeks. Not epic the whole time but with several periods we can get snow within a generally favorable 6 weeks from Jan 20 to early march.

Thanks I should have mentioned that...Euro been doing that for months actually. The mjo has been consistently more amplified then long range projections. But worse case just getting it out of the warm phases would help some.

The inner circle means the wave doesn't have enough amplitude to be significant. Circle of death. So no if the mjo goes into the COD it will do us no good. But it also won't hurt so at the least getting it out of the warm side will help. Would be better if it maintains amp into 8

It's a step process. We have to get the ridging up top then get it to retrograde enough to get troughing to build under it. The end of the gefs looks fine in terms of a step towards that. January 15-20 remember.

Toward the end the EPS gets the Pacific right but it's pushing back the Atlantic side lessening the nao more each run. It's still early. Interesting to see where the weeklies go tonight.

That was a long way of saying the EPS took a step back.