psuhoffman

I think normally this is true, but I was curious if its also true in a nino so I went back and looked at some of the analog years where we had a pretty bad period the second half of December into January. I used Boston as a judge. 1958: Boston only had .1 in December. Then they had 3.7" on January 7th, 1.4 on the 18th, and 1.3 on the 28th but overally they went into February with only 6.5" and way below average...then got snowy in February the same time we did. 1966: Boston only had 1.4" in December, then 4.3" on January 2nd a couple weeks before we got snowy...but other then that nothing until the same period where we had our epic run in late January. 1969: .4 in November, a few minor 1-2" events in December for 4.8 total. .8 all of January so they went into February way below average like us with only about 6.5" 1978: .7 in November, a 2.8 and 1.9" event in early December then pretty much nothing until early January. They did get snowy about a week before we did in January with a couple minor events before the snow blitz started. 1987: 3" in November, 2.7 and .5 in early December, Then nothing until January, again they got snowy about a week before we did 2005: 3.9" in November, then nothing until December 26 with 6.6 and January 6th with 6.9, so they got snowy a few weeks before we did 2015: 2.3" in November, only .3 in December, 1.4" from a weak system that effected our area too in early January...then the snow blitz started there 1-24, and we started getting snowy then too only we didn't count it because we were getting 1-3" events when they were getting 1-3 feet lol. So the results are interesting...in general they were not getting blitzed with snow during our dead periods during ninos...but you are right they often started getting snow a week or two before us so seeing them get some snow soon would be a good thing. But the fact they have not so far is not a bad sign either. It does bother me (a little) that they have had virtually nothing. I think Logan is at .2 total so far. That is a bit odd and not in line with the analog years. They are typically below average so far but not by that much. That could be a red flag. But that could also just be bad luck. The difference between a couple clippers or a minor 2-3" event and not is not that significant. What is odd this year is when it has been cold the lack of clippers and minor waves. It seems like everything is either a big juiced up monster storm or totally dry. So the places that got hit, central PA (arguably my area in November) and southern VA got hit big. And everywhere else is a snow desert. No smaller systems to fill in the gaps. 87 was kind of like that, only a few of the big ones hit and so it didn't matter, but all of our snow came from 4 storms that year. But ask NYC what they think of that year and they will puke. They were the ones skunked that year. The one storm they went to rain, and the others stayed mostly just to their south...and they remember one of our favorite years as a crap year. Hopefully that isn't us this year.

In nevember I laid out the analogs and I was very clear that they indicated we had a chance at an early storm in December (and we did but it just missed) but that the majority of the analogs were pretty snowless until mid January and so a lack of snow early wasn't an indication things were going wrong. I expected we might get a cold period with a window for snow early and we did. Now we are going through the typical crap late dec and early Jan nino period. Just because it didn't snow in your yard doesn't erase the cold period from early November until about December 12th. I know all you care about is your yard but the weather doesn't give a crap about your yard. A great pattern doesn't mean snow in your yard. That pattern early December was great. We missed because of minor chaos driven factors not lining up. Bad luck. Not bad pattern. If that storm had hit this year would look exactly like 1957/8 or 209/10 right now. But overall from a longwave pattern pov it would be no different. Next week we look to get a -nao but it won't produce snow. If so that wouldn't mean the -nao didn't happen or the guidance showing it was wrong. Your missing the big picture because all you are looking at is "did it snow in my yard". Put it another way... Charlottesville, Roanoke, and Richmond are all way above climo and only one more good storm from a great year. So somehow the pattern is great for them but crap for us? If I showed you the patterns for a big storm in central VA vs DC you couldn't tell the difference in most cases at h5. The things that caused a 50 mile miss vs a hit can't be seen in a longwave pattern or from range. When you miss by 500 miles it's a bad pattern. When you miss by 50 miles it's bad luck. What about here. I had 7" in November. I've had a couple close misses since. A couple storms that were slightly too warm. I mixed a couple times. And the southern slider. So if I had been a couple degrees colder or that vort doesn't dive in at the wrong time during the southern storm I get one more snow and I'm sitting way above climo. Then it's a great pattern? But because of bad luck it's a bad one? The differences between this year and a year like 57/8, 02/3, or 09/10 has more to do with luck than pattern. If the one big storm in dec 09 had been suppressed this year would be ahead of that year right now! Finally getting a bad start in a Nina or neutral year is way different than a nino. We had this discussion in Jan 2015 also. Climo says bad starts are likely and big second half saves are also likely in a weak to moderate nino. That's not true in a Nina or neutral year. Although in a Nina climo does say our best chance at a significant single fluke snow event is march. And last 2 years that was true. One ended up a big sleet and the other was our best snow since Jan 16. So climo was correct the last 2 years in saying not to give up on getting snow. But the goal last year was simply to avoid a total fail. This year we should get a significant snowy period not just one fluke event.

Who was thinking last year was going to be good? It was a Nina. We were hopeful that we could get lucky and score some snow at some point. And we did. But I don't know anyone (except jb) who predicted an above normal snow year.

I didn't take it personally. But I'm questioning why so many are acting like the majority of seasonal forecasts that said snowy second half of winter should be doubted now or are in trouble based on it not snowing during a period those forecasts didn't think it would snow? What has happened so far that indicates a forecast for a snowy second half of winter is wrong?

Great throwing out feb 2010 analogs won't raise expectations any lol.

If your point that forecasts can be wrong I'm well aware. I've had plenty go wrong. But if guidance, analogs, and timing of the mjo all agree what should we base the forevast on? And most have been adjusting the mjo for the models continued over deamplification. Finally if a forecast was for the pattern to become snowy towards the end of January and February and nothing has happened yet to indicate that is going wrong why would I or anyone else start to doubt it based on it not snowing now when we didn't think it would be snowing now? It would be different if I had predicted it to be cold and snow a lot in the first half of winter and I keep kicking the can down the road to stall. But my target dates have been consistent. See the start of a step progression towards colder early January. See a better pattern set in mid to late month. Weeklies still show that. Cfs weeklies show it. Ensembles show the genesis of the progression. Mjo is heading towards cold phases or at least out of warm ones mid month. PV is weak. Analogs suggest this is normal. So why would I panic or abandon that forecast now? Based on what evidence? The emotional reaction to lack of snow when it wasn't supposed to be snowing?

This thread is getting full of really awful analysis right now...not even analysis, more just whining and lamenting lack of snow. From range we can predict basic patterns but snow in a specific location is then up to details within a pattern that can't be seen until shorter leads. When the guidance showed a -nao +pna look the first week of January and then a building epo ridge people got excited that it would snow because those pattern drivers usually set up a favorable pattern for snow. It might still snow the January 3-5 period is close. But right now the PV looks too suppressive and so it probably won't. Because of that people are now misguidedly claiming the long range guidance was wrong about the pattern. Then extending that flawed analysis to cast doubt on the rest of winter. But the first week of January still looks like a -nao +pna then a building epo ridge. So the guidance nailed the pattern from range. Just because it doesn't snow doesn't make the guidance wrong about the pattern. Not every good look leads to snow. Problem is most aren't analyzing the pattern and how the guidance performed all they are analyzing is how much snow falls in their yard. Problem is snow is very fluky. Fairly minor details within a pattern that can change due to chaos determine the relatively small area that gets hit with snow by any specific storm. That's something for short to medium range discussions. Snowfall in a specific spot has nothing to do with a long range pattern analysis. Going forward I agree the EPS looks better. Probably another good weeklies coming tonight. The day 15 actually is significantly better than the same time on the last weeklies run and much further along on the progression towards a -AO/nao. The pac looks good already. The gefs is more ambiguous but it has a lot to like also. The trough southwest of Alaska, -epo. But it's shifting around with its progression run to run elsewhere. 0z was a good look over the Conus and nao 6z wasn't. But even 6z wasn't far off from getting to a good pattern. The pattern is actually good enough that I am surprised nothing is showing as a specific threat. That is annoying. But as I said above not all good patterns lead to snow.

Maybe people based the date on analogs, mjo progression, and guidance all being in agreement. That's why so many forecasts are similar. It's not model hugging.

That's only because the free maps for the EPS only go out to 240 so that map is a day earlier than the gefs and geps. EPS beats down the ridge also after that time.

All of it...the GEFS/EPS/GEPS all look about the same from a longwave pattern POV. Details are different obviously but not the kind of thing you would see at range and be picky about. The EPS timing doesn't match because the publicly available maps only go to day 10 but if you could see the 5 day mean for 2 days later it would look very close to the GEFS and GEPS. The general pattern is the same for January 1-7th across guidance.

We just had a 384 hour run in the heart of winter without a single flake and the pattern in the long range on gefs is okay but nothing special day 16 of the GEFS only gets to Jan 12th. I would argue its better than OK... very negative epo and AO, slightly negative NAO, trough in the east, admitedly the axis too far east but there is more to like than not like and its a cold look. The whole CONUS east of the Rockies is below normal. It's close and moving in the right direction up top and still only Jan 12th, a full week before my target date for things to get good.

THe first week of January actually looks pretty good at H5 even now, but we are not seeing a specific threat materialize and so it doesn't matter. The storm looks suppressed and so we are ignoring the fact that we look to have a favorable pna/nao pattern. Not every good look ends up with a snowstorm. Or maybe the guidance is missing something and we do get snow. But either way the good look that was on the long range guidance did come to fruition it looks like. Then week 2 of January now looks like a bit of a relax, not awful but not as good as it looked from longer range. Then the guidance says it gets better again after that and we will have to see how that goes but so far the long range guidance for January doesn't look like it has been that off. YET

If the weeklies actually take a step back I will be disappointed. I thought the last run took a bit of a step back, but it's still in line with what I expected. If it starts to push the good look further back...into February instead of later January that I would take as a bad sign. We will see tomorrow.

That vortex there is making it difficult for the trough to dig and go neutral tilt, its also causing low pressure to our northwest instead of high pressure which interferes in the development of the southern system. I would rather that vortex just not be there. That could possibly lead to a warmer overall airmass but I would take my chances...we can't really tap into the true cold anyways with low pressure to our northwest and it's preventing the whole trough from digging in.

Op GFS is close... get that trough in the midwest to dig a little more and the axis a little west and that has potential. West based NAO block, pretty good pna ridge axis as the trough approaches... there is a lot to like there, unfortunately that vortex in Canada is running some interference. It can still work if we could get the changes I mentioned. It's close enough not to give up on it yet.

Ok...just to make my case why the goal posts are not being moved and people need to be patient. These were 10 of the best analogs being thrown around for various reasons but all were nino's with some similarities either in strength or evolution and some of these are better analogs than others but....all were used by some of the seasonal forecasts. 1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2015 All of them were above median snowfall winters at BWI. Only 64, 2003, and 2010 were especially cold and snowy early. Obviously we hoped for that but that would have been a fluke. The majority of analogs did not have much snow early in the winter. 1958 did have an 8" snowstorm the first week of December. But then it warmed and was warm and virtually snowless until February. Actually this year has some similarities, cold in November into early December...one storm that was a southern system, in this years case we just missed to the south but in the gran scheme that is very similar. Then a flip to warmer. The flip back didnt happen until very late January then from Feb 1 on BWI recorded snowfall events of 2.8", 15,5", 4.5", 8.2" 1966 BWI had only a trace until 1-22 then recorded 2.1", 7.2", 12.1", 2.7", 8.4" 1969 BWI recorded 4.3" in mid November...then warmed up until February. The next snow of any consequence wasnt until February 8th. From then on BWI recorded 3.3", 2,8", 5,4", 2.4" That year was especially unlucky, the pattern was pretty good through all of February into early March, and there were several coastal storms, a couple mixed in the city and hurt accumulations and a couple came together late and really crushed just to our northeast but only effected our area with minor snowfalls. It was a generally snowy 5 week period but we failed to really cash in with big totals. But all the chances were Feb 8 on. 1978: BWI had only a T until 1-13 then recorded 3.3", 2.4", 5.6", 9.1", 2.8", 4.8" 1987: BWI had only .3" until January 22 then 12.3", 9.6", 2.8", 10.1" 2005 BWI had only .1 until January 19th then 1.1", 4.5", 1.9", 5.9", 4.2"... again this year was kind of unlucky. The big storm in January was bigger just to our northeast, and the two storms late February were close to big events that just failed to come together perfectly. 2015: BWI had a minor snowfall in November...then only 2.6" total from one clipper until January 21... then 2.6", 1", 2.6", 3.8", 6.3", 1.5", 6.2" so there were a few fluke years where it was cold and snowy early but the significant majority of modoki nino years did not get snowy until the second half. People aren't just saying that to make you feel better and stall to hope our winter forecasts aren't in trouble. Its what the facts and data show. It's why most of the forecasts said a back loaded winter. The flip to snowy happened between January 13th in the earliest year (1978) and February 8th in the latest (1969). But they all flipped snowy at some point. I have little doubt the pattern will become favorable for snow sometime in the next month or so. After that it will be up to luck whether we get some snow and end up with an average type year like 1969 or 2005, or we go on an epic run like 58, 66, 78, 87, and 2015. But nothing that has happened so far indicates this year has gone off track and something has gone wrong.

It would be different if we expected the winter to be cold and snowy early but nino's typically start warm and most of the snow comes the second half. Most of the people calling for above normal snowfall were saying it would come the second half of winter...so why are people acting like things are going wrong?

I am about a mile south of PA and at about 1050 ft in elevation at about the highest point along Parrs Ridge. That makes my climo closer to Norwich CT or Providence RI than most of the mid atlantic. My average snowfall is about 40". My median (better indicator of normal) is 33.5". In the last 30 years 15 here were between 20 and 40" so that is what I consider typical. 8 years were above 40" which is a truly great year imo. 7 years were below 20 which is what I consider a total crap year. In effect my snowfall climo is about double most of the urban corridor. BUT... even up here a pure all snow warning event is pretty rare. Typically there is only one of those per year even up here in a normal year. Only in those rare great years do I get a ton of those type storms up here. A lot of my snow comes from nickel and dime 1-3" clippers and light events, or from the front or back end of storms that feature some mix or rain. Only rarely do we get a flush hit of 5" plus of all snow even up here. That is why I LOL at people who have half my median snowfall acting like that type of event is all they will accept and it needs to happen regularly for them to be happy. They wouldn't even be happen up here most of the time with their expectations.

He wants to throw a fit because he isn't happy and so he finds whatever supports his emotional tantrum. If it's a 16 day op then so be it.

It's not most. It's just a loud and persistent minority.

It's a definite threat window and I'm not sleeping on it. But unfortunately it's a 3 day window and now a long term high probability period. I think that does come...wait for it....after January 20.

lol I was thinking that but wasn't going to bother...

This is the best the pattern has looked heading into the heart of our climo in a LONG time. Last two years we had a transient epo dominant cold period around now but the breakdown and following torch was already showing up. In 2014 and 2015 right now we were still enjoying 60s and endless runs of full Conus ridge.

They are just all perturbed.

It snows almost every year. typucally between 7-18" across the corridor in 60% of years. The other 40% are split between 20% that are better then that and 20% that are worse. Imo the problem seems to be many act like we are New England and it should snow all the time. Then they disqualify most of the snow we do get because "it came too early or too late" or "it didn't stick to roads" or "it changed to rain" and then continue to complain that it never snows even if it just snowed a few weeks ago! Seriously when your median snowfall for the whole season is about 12-16" for most around the area how do they get to be so picky? Im not even close to that picky about how we get snow. Even if they lived here with my climo they would be disappointed most years. Even up here a pure all snow warning event is a relatively rare thing. I will never understand setting the bar so high that you will be miserable 80-90% of the time!