psuhoffman

What's your take on the gefs look day 15? Our problem lately has been the mjo forcing a trough off the west coast blasting Pacific air across. The long range backs that off into what should be a good longwave configuration (Aleutians trough epo ridge typically a cold look) but it's still a blowtorch across the US.

Gefs still developing a nice Pacific combo if Aleutians trough epo ridge...and blowtorching the Conus anyways.

Yes let us discuss the many ways to not snow! That will cheer everyone up.

I think what has me somewhat confounded is that the PAC isn't the problem there. I can't blame that on the mjo. I've assumed if we could get the trough away from Alaska and off the west coast and stop the PAC from flooding the Conus we would be good. But that there is a good Pacific. Trough southwest of Alaska. -epo. And it's still a torch all across the Conus. That is now the look across guidance. I hope it's just a step and from there the jet cuts under and the ridging lifts north and a week later we are in business.

Gefs agrees with it

Don posts this 15 mins ago. I'll hug it and leave it there for today. This was one to forget. Hopefully better news tomorrow. The 12/28 MJO data is now in. The MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 11th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.858. The amplitude is down from the 12/27 adjusted figure of 3.112. The MJO will very likely move into Phase 6 in coming days at a high to very high amplitude. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. Initially, both the SOI and Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely remain predominantly positive. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could see a predominant PNA+/AO- combination.

I think JB just threw in the towel. Lol. Guess I'll be the last one to turn the lights out.

Cfs has really backed off. A week ago it mirrored the euro weeklies. Now it's flat awful through all of January. But hey it says the pattern gets kind of mediocre at least by mid February!!!

Hey the Fv3 does a late phase bomb to hit New England. We feel good for them right?

In fairness the guidance all sucks right now. That gfs run was comical at the end. Whole North America void of cold. And after some hints of better things the last few days today was just awful run after awful run with no real sight of the other side. I have faith in the pattern flip for all the reasons laid out but I can't deny today was a good day for anyone going warm or the debs.

Ok now that's funny.

Yep. Especially up your way but even down here if we can get the Pacific right and promote a cold continental flow then I might rather no PV around then risk a misplaced one. Mid winter with blocking and a flow from Canada can work just fine absent some vortex around unless your hunting for record cold.

He thinks the pattern change is 15-20 days away due to a slowing and lag on the mjo due partially to what's going on in the western tropical Pacific and the cyclones there. I'll admit even with my background in meteorology I still have to google search some stuff sometimes to translate him. But it's great for expanding my knowledge base.

I don't disagree with any of this. And yes on a global longwave scale the EPS is that far off from what it was advertising. It ended up wrong on the Pacific trough retrograding and the result was the Pacific flooding the Conus AGAIN. Towards the end it's improving. Very possible it's simply a one week delay. And that still fits analogs. But every attempt to break down this Pacific driven pattern has been blunted and the obvious reason is the mjo. Just look at a mjo phase correlation map and it matches what has been happening perfectly. Now the week two has evolved to match a phase 6 look. Not shocking. The hope still is that the mjo has to leave the warm phases eventually and then the better look the guidance keeps wanting to move to would materialize. I still believe that. But my god is it taking its darn time getting through 4/5/6.

It's close enough globally that perhaps it was just rushing things a few days. The day 15 really could be only a few days away from a good pattern if (big if) it evolves that direction. But if I don't start to see the changes I expected appear towards the end of the ensembles soon (next week or so) I will begin to waver.

Yea I'm not gonna blow smoke. It's "ok". But look how far off it from what I expected already. Last weekly run 12z eps

Not a fan of EPS. Continued degradation of the long range look from a couple days ago. It does have signs of split flow stj cutting under but the center of the ridging is in southern Canada not where we need it up north of Hudson Bay. That means systems would likely track across the south but with no cold to work with. Before that the medium range continues to degrade towards a total torch after the 3/4 threat. It wants nothing to do with the -nao on the gefs during that period and so just blasts the Pacific air across. The big problem is it continues to move away from the look on the weeklies which should now be entering the end of the EPS window. A new weeklies run now would look different week 3. Impossible to know if it would still evolve towards the look it's been consistently advertising for a month but the weeklies are already wrong for week 3. All the guidance is jumpy and vastly different past day 10. Look at geps gefs and EPS and they are worlds apart. So I'm not panicking yet but I will admit (I'm not stubborn) the move away from the look consistently advertised for weeks on the EPS has be frustrated and concerned. Only slightly but concerned none the less. We will know in 2 weeks.

Lol.... I don't even know what you said yesterday. I just know your an a$$hat!

No your just an a$$ hat. Don't read any more into it.

@WxUSAF your right just looked at the 850 and surface and colder than I thought. Not great but workable. But I also suspect if the gfs is right about the mjo AND the other global longwave pattern telleconnections that it's wrong about the h5 ridge over the central US. It would be pretty difficult for all those features to coexist. At least for long.

Yea all true and it looks great globally everywhere it matter...except over us lol. Every telle says there should be a trough over the eastern Conus. But yet.... I'm not bailing and it's a step I guess but getting tired of baby steps and extrapolations.

Gefs still looks weird at the end. -epo -nao -ao trough in Europe and Aleutians but no corresponding trough over the Conus. Just warm all over. Even after the PAC trough backs off no sign of a response.

Gfs is starting to show the effects of the nao blocking. Yea it's a flawed pattern with PAC puke airmass flooding across under the blocking BUT...you keep running those juiced up systems west to east under the block with highs to the north during the coldest time of the year and one is likely to work out. Get the Pacific just slightly better and it becomes a money pattern fast.

By the end both were workable with a good look up top. But the EPS was a step back from the previous run and the absolutely awful week before is hard to look at so I probably was more down on it than warranted.

What's been killing the forecasters is the weeklies but the weeklies and eps have never really been on the same page. Go back to those threads where those epic weeklies runs popped up. I think we put too much hope in climate models I wouldn't have bought into the weeklies at all if they weren't supported by my identified analogs. Problem is those analogs were based on a nino. If the soi fails to reflect a nino those analogs become garbage.