psuhoffman

The last 48 hours has been frustrating. If you wanted any improvements there were none on the whole. But if we just wanted to get it the 4th quarter close that happened. It's within striking distance from here. But I'll admit it's been frustrating even for me. Even tonight if it stays where it is I think we have a reasonable chance. But I think tomorrow is when I want to see subtle improvements or else I'll start to lose some faith.

I saw a verification chart a few years ago. Better than the ggem op and at this range the gfs op. But slightly worse than the gefs.

Just looking at the h5 it looks pretty ugly to me. Maybe the worse run at h5 in a while relative to what we need. In every way. In the end the NS was slightly more suppressive (that's been a trend across guidance and it's offsetting improvements in the stj wave) and less phasing.

Like I've been saying I just want a hold. Tomorrow is when I want to start seeing better trends.

Where has access to off hour EPS? Just wondering.

No one ever posted the 6z euro. I know the op only goes to 90 but the 6z EPS goes out past there. But very few have acces to it.

Yea the moves in the gfs and Fv3 the last 24 hours are noise imo

So far I think the last 24 hours have been a complete wash with narrowing of the outliers as we get closer the only real trend. But we're right where we where with the target just south of us and needing some combination of better phasing and relaxing of the NS flow to our north.

Yep...it was an attempt to corral all the dumb into this one thread. ETA: just so a debate doesn't start up I know when this thread started it was dry...and it was worth noting it...but it was fairly typical variance that happens a couple times a decade and not the emergency situation worth derailing EVERY discussion in every thread one person was making it out to be.

it seemed like such a dire thing .. its not like typical cyclical climate variance could have solved such an emergency situation

When will we get a drought update?

You're welcome. As for deer my wife knows a trick using Irish spring soap. Seems the deer don't like the smell. She puts it up at the corners and they have not been a problem.

More recent pic...I need to catch up on weeding but have a 2 month old and I've been working long hours helping run a summer learning program.

I put a fence up around the garden. I lived the bottom foot with chicken fence to keep the smaller vermin out and then tucked the fencing underground about 6" for a foot to keep groundhogs from burrowing under. I also build a cage with bird netting for the strawberries. We haven't had an issue with the other berries. You can see in the background the strawberry cage. These are old from right after I finished laying out the garden and putting down the boxes and stone walkways. What is now the pumpkin patch is in the background.

Oh I know. I have a pretty large garden. Tomatoes, carrots, corn, peppers, raspberries, blueberries, watermelons, zucchini, green beans, snap peas, and 3 kinds of pumpkins. It's a pain when I have to water it all. But it's normal. There is a dry stretch almost every summer. Also sucks for my 2 acre lawn but there is nothing I can do about it. No way I am wasting that much water and overusing my well pump. Just have to hope it recovers when the rain comes again.

Typical cyclical patterns continue. We had a very wet spring. Now we are have a very typical summer dry spell that happens often. Some keep looking at qpf over too small timeframes to draw meaningful conclusions.

Don't feed the animals.

But that's pretty typical of a Nina winter.

Nina is typically dry here. We've had a two year Nina. It's ending now. We probably transition to a wetter long term pattern soon. It is typical cyclical variation. If this were to continue dry another 6-12 months then things would get serious and it would be a historically significant drought. I doubt that.

What model in the 3 days leading into the storm showed 0" at DC? And what model showed 15"? And don't post some clown snow map with a faulty algorithm if you use those to predict snow then you got problems. I mean a model that actually showed 15" at DCA if you looked at soundings and took out the fake snow from wave 1 with a big warm layer. The real range was 3-9 on 90% of all runs the last 3 days. There were a couple outlier runs that showed 10-12" but it was never the consensus. Not a single one showed 0 or 15. Your full of it. Btw if you ever ever ever ever ever even say persistence or imply it won't snow because it hasn't so far in any future winter I'll troll the living hell out of you with facts. We had every pattern imaginable this winter. From average temps and snowy in December to frigid and bone dry to warm and wet and finally cold and snowy. This year proved persistence only works in hindsight and is BS in forecasting because patterns break at any time and chaos matters too.

RIP

The problem with persistence based forecasting is you don't know when the pattern will break. And there can be wet periods embedded within longer term dry patterns. Some of us had over 1" qpf last week. Either way yes dry feeds back and can cause more dry but it can and will break and so all this dire saber rattling that it can't rain or snow because it's dry is overdone. Yes it's dry. No one is refuting that. But it's part of long term cyclical patterns. Dry wet it goes back and forth and will balance in the long run. This isn't anything out of the realm of normal long term variance. We have had droughts like this before and we will again. And it will end at some point.

Vice Regent says we're all gonna be under water. This guy thinks we're heading for scorched earth. Can we stick them in a room and let them fight it out?

You win. Your right. The earth is scorched. The apocalypse is upon us. It will never rain again. Fleas and ticks will rule the earth. Flee scurry run for our lives. The great dryness is upon us.

I am being flippant because I think he is going too far with this. Yes we are in a low level drought. And I don't mean to be rude towards farming interests and other areas where it is having an effect. But right now what we're experiencing is part of typical cyclical weather. And it's an effect not a cause when we discuss snow. The Nina pattern among other things is causing both the lack of snow and precipitation. Droughts are an effect more than a cause. If droughts caused drought then we would never get out of them. Droughts tend to persist as long as the pattern causing them persists and then it ends and so does the drought. So sorry if I came off dismissive but I'm tired of the agendas. Between the global warming and the drought and the government conspiracy and NWP arguments we can't keep anything on topic anymore.