psuhoffman

Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse. Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours...

At least it seems the south trend from yesterday has stopped and perhaps we are seeing a slight nudge north now...but all we are doing is getting back to where we were the last few days.

Assuming there isn't a south trend and its still looking about as it is now...I wouldn't even totally check out after 0z. God knows we have seen weirder things happen...but after tonight we would be heading into needing a January 2000 and March 2001 type bust territory. It's still close...but I really am not liking the trend in the flow over New England. We need that to relax and it seems like its coming in stronger each run.

There seemed like some minor but noticeable shifts north in the confluence through about 78 hours and it did cause a minor slight bump northwest. BUT... after that things ended up the same spot anyways because that lobe of the pinwheel up in the NS dove down even stronger and south (again). That feature has been trending worse and worse over the last couple days and its offsetting the (minor) improvements in other areas that may show up run to run. A lot of those improvements are what I was kind of banking on to give us a chance but that required not having a degradation of the flow in the NS. If we look at where the confluence is up there its not even close really...we need it to back off quite a bit to match up with where it was in storms that got significant snows up into our area. Possible I guess but its going the wrong way right now. The only thing I could see that could change this equation that much would be if the models are all just totally messing up the phasing and that upper low in the Midwest phases in cleanly instead of holding back and acting like a kicker. That could pump heights in front enough to change the equation...and that is the kind of complicated thing that perhaps all the guidance is struggling with. But that is a pretty low probability. However, the issues to our northeast seem even less likely to resolve themselves. I know its the NS and those vorts are hard to pin down but its that whole lobe rotating through quebec that is the problem not any one individual vort...and no matter how the guidance handles those vorts that whole mess drops down and squashes everything every run. To me that indicates that unless we get a phased bomb this just isnt' going to work.

I think we know our fate... There is time but things are bleeding the wrong way right now right when we would expect to see the positive changes if this were likely to go well.

NAM looked pathetic for the NAM. That's as much analysis as I am willing to do.

The problem is it's not just one vort that's the problem. It's the larger scale vortex that's placing the NS train of vorts through New England. If one isn't there another one comes along. The whole thing needs to lift more but instead it's been trending south a bit over the last 72 hours and it's totally offset the positive trends with the stj that I expected. The whole configuration up there could be off but that's a bigger get than one discreet vort being off.

I posted the euro seasonal in the long range thread just now. I figured we could use some cheering up.

I don't want to write a post mortem when the storm hasn't happened yet but the northern stream can be an issue in any pattern. In a nina more so because the stj is typically weaker and the NS stronger. So that stacks the odds that with vorts flying by it's harder to get phasing, or to get the jet to buckle under us. But the NS is always there and bad luck with a mistimed vort can mess up a threat anytime. There is no pattern where every storm will hit. In any winter no matter how good some will cut and some will be suppressed. If this plays out the way it looks it's just bad luck imo. If that upper low set up 200 miles further north we would have been fine. Finally we need some suppression. Without it we rain. We're not far enough north to typically win without some suppression. But the areal coverage of snowfall is small in a global sense so too much of a good thing and it squashes. Not enough and it cuts. It's just a matter of getting lucky. This was a pretty good threat. Just too much "blocking". I know some said there isn't but the way the jet is configured right now to our north it's acting like a defacto block. But give this this kind of pattern a few more times and I'll take my chances we hit on one. From range there is no way to say though. The differences at h5 between a D.C. hit or a close miss isn't significant. And the model error is too significant to say from range exactly where confluence will be. Don't know what to tell you other than this hobby is a roller coaster. Try to enjoy the ride.

Yes it's always a good idea to set the bar at equaling the snowiest year on record.

I feel ya but climo wise we shouldn't get a 20" storm this early either. It's a fluke anomaly either way.

Yea but that's just normal. We were on a heater from 2014-16 where we hit an unusual percentage of threats. Since we have been below typical maybe. It evens out. Even in great years they don't all hit. Did you see the euro seasonal. We will have lots of threats this year. And hopefully some will come without a NS death pinwheel off New England to suppress them. I'm banking this won't be the only time the stj throws something like this at us and some will hit.

You could see that NS vort coming though and how it was gonna be in the way.

I think there is a trend now. It's just not the trend we wanted. I still think this will do the typical adjustment north the last 48 hours. But it might not matter now.

The nam is actually south of the gfs even. Wasn't a good run imo.

Compare the nam at 84 with the ggem run from this morning. Not even close. In any way.

I dunno that looks like a brick wall still in its way. Look at the h5 from previous stj storms. We need that confluence at least 100 miles north of where it is. And that is trending south not north.

One trend is bothering me. I assumed the stj system would end up stronger and pump heights in front more. But the northern stream is trending even more suppressive to our northeast offsetting that.

Not so happy hour tonight

The last 48 hours has been frustrating. If you wanted any improvements there were none on the whole. But if we just wanted to get it the 4th quarter close that happened. It's within striking distance from here. But I'll admit it's been frustrating even for me. Even tonight if it stays where it is I think we have a reasonable chance. But I think tomorrow is when I want to see subtle improvements or else I'll start to lose some faith.

I saw a verification chart a few years ago. Better than the ggem op and at this range the gfs op. But slightly worse than the gefs.

Just looking at the h5 it looks pretty ugly to me. Maybe the worse run at h5 in a while relative to what we need. In every way. In the end the NS was slightly more suppressive (that's been a trend across guidance and it's offsetting improvements in the stj wave) and less phasing.

Like I've been saying I just want a hold. Tomorrow is when I want to start seeing better trends.

Where has access to off hour EPS? Just wondering.

No one ever posted the 6z euro. I know the op only goes to 90 but the 6z EPS goes out past there. But very few have acces to it.