psuhoffman

This won’t be your only one this season. But enjoy. First is always the best.

Very light snow starting here. 29/15. Ready for my fringing!!!

Ouch! I'm ok with getting 4" when DC gets 6-8 but that would really hurt.

@Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west? That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements. The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding. Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here!

As usual we did get the north trend at the end. It's a pretty good bet with southern stream systems. BUT the shift south between 100-72 hours out took us out of it. Had it still been targeting richmond and Charlottesville as the bullseye going into the last 72 hours we would be shoveling right now. Oh well. On to the next episode.

The north edge shifts north 90% of the time at the very end.

Why did you leave?

You're a ray of sunshine

Similar gradient through central PA and NJ with the Feb 5 2010 storm.

It's early December...surface temps (when not yet saturated) are not always the best indicator of the depth of a cold air mass or of the flow at the mid and upper levels which have more to say at determining storm track and snowfall. That said your concern for places south of is on the coastal plain is legit. It's close to mixing if things break 1-2 degrees warmer. But I think dewpoints suggest if they will be ok. Inland on the piedmont and the mountains make no mistake this will be historic for them. Keep in mind a 10"+ storm is historic for places south of DC outside high elevations. A 10" storm in Richmond would immediately jump into 16th place all time. 13" would get into the top 10! A pretty large area of northwest NC and southwestern VA west of the fall line is going to get 10-15" with some localized places pushing 20. That's a rare significant event for that area. I wouldn't dismiss it so readily.

The contour gradients aren't the same.

The south move 2 days ago meant the typical 50-75 mile north trend at the end will just make this an epic tease.

If I were south of D.C. I would still have an eye on it because you never know. How often have we seen a sneaky band set up north of projections 24 hours out. But for the rest of us any north trend only makes the miss more painful. Helps that it's early December and I have a lot of confidence we will get ours this year. If I was totally healthy I might consider talking the wife into a family snow road trip down 81 somewhere. Southwest VA looks like a good bet right now for a nice foot of snow and an easier escape then NC.

Lol that will only make it hurt more

It's not actually north at all it's just faster.

Meteocentre has 18z ggem?

It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least.

Take a look at the H5 map over New England.

AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hopefully you are like the "ex-forum member" soon

NAM and GFS was south...everything else north.

No one here wants you to do any posts

Here we go lol

They took down storm mode...that did it