psuhoffman

Why did you leave?

You're a ray of sunshine

Similar gradient through central PA and NJ with the Feb 5 2010 storm.

It's early December...surface temps (when not yet saturated) are not always the best indicator of the depth of a cold air mass or of the flow at the mid and upper levels which have more to say at determining storm track and snowfall. That said your concern for places south of is on the coastal plain is legit. It's close to mixing if things break 1-2 degrees warmer. But I think dewpoints suggest if they will be ok. Inland on the piedmont and the mountains make no mistake this will be historic for them. Keep in mind a 10"+ storm is historic for places south of DC outside high elevations. A 10" storm in Richmond would immediately jump into 16th place all time. 13" would get into the top 10! A pretty large area of northwest NC and southwestern VA west of the fall line is going to get 10-15" with some localized places pushing 20. That's a rare significant event for that area. I wouldn't dismiss it so readily.

The contour gradients aren't the same.

The south move 2 days ago meant the typical 50-75 mile north trend at the end will just make this an epic tease.

If I were south of D.C. I would still have an eye on it because you never know. How often have we seen a sneaky band set up north of projections 24 hours out. But for the rest of us any north trend only makes the miss more painful. Helps that it's early December and I have a lot of confidence we will get ours this year. If I was totally healthy I might consider talking the wife into a family snow road trip down 81 somewhere. Southwest VA looks like a good bet right now for a nice foot of snow and an easier escape then NC.

Lol that will only make it hurt more

It's not actually north at all it's just faster.

Meteocentre has 18z ggem?

It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least.

Take a look at the H5 map over New England.

AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hopefully you are like the "ex-forum member" soon

NAM and GFS was south...everything else north.

No one here wants you to do any posts

Here we go lol

They took down storm mode...that did it

Poor Richmond even the amped up solution screws them over.

Rock meets bottom

I'm an a$$. I couldn't help it. Ill keep casually checking out each run of course and crazy things happen but that wall to our north looks impenetrable.

Get rid of that lobe diving down from Hudson Bay and we would have been good.

We needed the 50/50 and that lobe rotating around to trend weaker/north and it trended stronger/south. That simple. Ironically given the improvements in other areas had that situation simply stayed the same as it looked 72 hours ago we might be in the game now... the storm has pretty much stayed where it was despite the issues up there because of a stronger stj wave and the typical correction towards a healthier precip shield on the north side. But those changes cant save us because the confluence keeps trending south every run.

Yea the h5 looks a hot mess! There have been marginal improvements in the precip shield today but the H5 look has actually continued to degrade away from what we want for more then conversational fringe snow IMO. The issues over new england have only trended worse and the upper level situation in the midwest looks a mess.