psuhoffman

2.5”

Looks like round 2 wants to fringe me too. Guess the snow gods are making up for lost time. Guess I should have taken the fringe risk more seriously. Just assumed it would pull the last minute north bump to save me as usual.

Lol I’ll survive. Bring fringed here is rare because with upslope from the 1000 ft ridges we get higher ratios and usually a mini qpf max so even if I was “fringed” at the synoptic level at the meso level I can take what would have been .15 qpf and bump it to .25 with upslope then go 20-1 ratio and boom 5”. That’s what happens a lot. But that all falls apart if I don’t get into good enough lift to get the ball rolling. This time the fringe was real because the northern most band set up just to my south and I was stuck in the subsidence of that a lot. I think some places north of me did slightly better from the modest waa wave but I might have been hurt by the sinking around that band that dropped 4-5” just to my south.

Brisk

5 or 6 from what I hear Wanna trade?

Don’t you have 5” otg?

Most guidance has today mainly south of us northerners...nws upped us to 4-6 yesterday which right now looks like a very minor bust. We will see. But he is negative so he will make the 1” bust into a big deal. Still it’s slightly a bummer to be somewhat left out. My bar always seems to be 4”. That feels like a significant snow to me. Didn’t make it this time. Banding stayed about 5 miles south all night.

2.4”. 5 miles south of me has 4.5”. The Fringe was real Really happy for the dc/Baltimore area though.

Hrrr looks good even up here tomorrow

That banding out by Hagerstown looks like it's heading our way...

Thanks crankywxguy Go enjoy your snow. You are getting crushed. If this bumps north I’ll be fine. If it doesn’t oh well I always win it’s your turn.

There is some heavier banding just coming into range in Garrett County also that could work its way up here.

Yea it will be close

Short term I’m not seeing as much northerly trajectory on the banding to our south as I’d like. We have been stuck in really light stuff as south of us gets the goods. Actually have been getting fringed. If that band can shift 10 miles north...but it looks like that’s going to be a struggle. The real question is does and banding with the upper level vort pass make it up here tomorrow. If we can pull off 2-3” from that, that’s how we can still get a win here. We are definitely living on the edge with this one. Hopefully this isn’t the real fringe finally catching up with us.

25/22 here now, just got to an inch. Snowing steady now...but ratio's don't seem all that high att. I don't think I have had heavy enough rates or enough lift to get truly high ratios. I would guess around 11 or 12-1 right now. Nothing really special. I get over 15-1 ratios on this ridge a LOT. Many of my biggest storms the local coop recorded over 15-1. Around 17-1 is common. To get those ratios you need to get into dome decent banding and better lift though, if its snowing very lightly with needles that isn't going to get it done. If I can actually get into some banding tomorrow like the 3k says...that is when I can really clean up and pile up numbers with very little qpf. Upper low passes up here with upslope enhancement are awesome.

That band just coming out of WV looks nice

Sorry for your loss. Enjoy the snow and whatever respite it brings.

Sure. I took Stephen fishing up at Codorus SP a couple times last summer. I’m no expert but we got a few bites. He was excited to catch his first fish.

.4 should be ~6” up here and that’s sweet. Don’t care what happens south of me if I get 5-6”. Hope you get a foot. I’m not like Ji I don’t need to be the jack every time. It’s more about meeting or beating expectations going in and at least covering the ground.

This won’t be your only one this season. But enjoy. First is always the best.

Very light snow starting here. 29/15. Ready for my fringing!!!

Ouch! I'm ok with getting 4" when DC gets 6-8 but that would really hurt.

@Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west? That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements. The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding. Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here!

As usual we did get the north trend at the end. It's a pretty good bet with southern stream systems. BUT the shift south between 100-72 hours out took us out of it. Had it still been targeting richmond and Charlottesville as the bullseye going into the last 72 hours we would be shoveling right now. Oh well. On to the next episode.

The north edge shifts north 90% of the time at the very end.