psuhoffman

What’s with the tone change suddenly? Isn’t the guidance about exactly where it was last night when people were really excited? I mean I kind of thought the excitement was a little bit much but now the gloom is too much and we’re basically exactly where we were 24 hours ago.

That was the red flag I didn’t like seeing on the eps several days ago where all the really amped up big snow solutions were north of us and the only hits seemed to be weak waves. Still would rather 3-6” of snow than rain but it was disappointing to see the boundary set up too far north such that an amped up solution wouldn’t work for us.

About time my climo kicks in, its been completely useless so far this year lol.

I don't... I am not saying this is done for, tonight storm could impact this and perhaps models aren't yet seeing it fully. But by now they should be able to calculate the impacts of the coastal since its being modeled better. This could still come south more tonight and then we have wiggle room. Or maybe it never adjusts north at the last minute...sometimes they dont. There are NO hard rules in this game. I was simply saying I would rather see another south shift right now on guidance. That is all. Don't want to make more of it than that.

I was rooting for more south trend today... as the typical adjustment the final 36 hours or so with these waves is north. I know no one wants to hear that, myself included, but we all know it in the back of our minds...so I think more than just a small adjustment on one or two runs right now...what probably has people frustrated is knowing we don't have enough wiggle room for the inevitable slight adjustment north that will come at game time. ETA: every once in a while something can buck that trend though...both storms in March 2014 trended south at the last minute so it does happen sometimes...but its not often enough to feel comfy going into the final stretch on the southern border of snow.

I stopped trying to predict how guidance would trend a while ago. This year nothing has gone the way I thought. Once things settle inside a reasonable range I can get a feel but until then just watching and along for the ride.

about the same percentage as all winters...about 25-30%. Actually the only category that gives us a significantly higher chance than that at a big snowfall year are moderate to strong modoki years. Those are like 80% above average snowfall. All other enso type categories vary between a 15-30% chance of having an above average snowfall year. Well except for moderate east based nino which there has only been one in the last 50 years and it was a slightly above average year...so there a moderate east based nino gives us a 100% chance of above normal snow!!!

not by enough... it needs to track no further north than about the VA/NC border and stay southeast of Norfolk as it crosses that position for DC to have a chance.

But it doesn't matter what happens once the low is to our northeast, might matter to NYC and Boston but for our purposes we need the low to track to our south as it crosses our longitude. Without the in between time steps and temperatures there is no way to know yet if the UKMET is any good for us.

March 9 looks like a legit threat depending on the depth of the cold left by then... and you are making conclusions way too soon. Trends suck right now but its still 100 hours away, lots of time for changes. And averages don't work that way.

GFS/FV3/GGEM all warmer. Honestly if we go back 72 hours the trend has and continues to be warmer. There will always be some windshield wiper effect and odd runs that bounce around but if you take the average trend from all the models over the last 3 days it has been a pretty consistent northward trend. I had hoped that was over with the runs last night but it seems to have resumed this morning.

even up here it looks pretty crappy. 850's push north of the PA line during the best qpf. It looks like a mixy slushy 2-3" here with the significant snows up in PA.

Yea makes me aporeciate 1994, 2007, and that March storm in 2017 more. Only 3 times I’ve seen significant sleet pile up.

Looks like it. Seems the dryslot blasted in way ahead of schedule. What you end up with?

Yea nothing saw that dryslot blasting across MD around noon like that. Just about all guidance had the heaviest precip here and northeast MD between 12-3. It’s not that we got it early it’s just the band literally fell apart due to some kind of dry air intrusion to the north of the convective band to our south. My snow accumulation was about where it should have been at 12:30 but I was supposed to get another 2-4” sn/pl between 12:30-3 or so. Not a disaster. 4” isn’t bad. It’s a low bust though when forecast was 6-8”. I kind of thought that was a little high though. My expectation was more 5-7. Still fell slightly short. Ok I haven’t looked at the long range since yesterday...time to dig in and figure out where the 16” I still need to get to climo is coming from!!!

Some of us north of Baltimore weren’t going to change over for a while yet so the dryslot killed a few hours of snow/sleet potential up here. If I was down there I would be thrilled with a dryslot about now. So it’s a matter of perspective based on location.

That it? Around 4”. It was awesome for a couple hours under that band. Didn’t expect it to fall apart so fast up here though. Thought we would be in heavy precip until 3-4pm. Oh well. Not bad.

Snow just started in the northern hinterlands. 27/16

No I was in PA that year.

They aren’t perfect but guidance often shifts towards them when they disagree. In the case a compromise was best.

I’ve had storms where I got 10+ and DC ~2”. I can’t remember one where I got 10+ and as close as where got 10” today got that little. I’m sure he’s happened but not recently.

You got double me so...lol. It was a bad weekend. Fringed. Eagles tough loss. This was one of the worst gradients I can remember with 10” about 30 miles south of me and 2.5” here. Oh well. This will be one to just forget and move on to the epic pattern ahead. I feel happy for the DC area though. This should raise spirits in here at least. DC is one more decent storm away from beating climo now.

How did you do?

No the one on 30 north of Hampstead

This storm is trolling me. After the banding set up just south of me last night the latest band is like 2 miles south of me and stuck. It seems that’s the furthest north it can get. Just went down to Walmart 3 miles south and it’s puking snow. Just flurries at my house.