psuhoffman

I’m honestly not trying to be a selfish dick. If there was a way for DC and my yard to get 6” I would be all for it. But the thermal profile is pretty marginal and if we keep deamplifying this thing it’s going to be white rain for everyone. I’m rooting for an amped solution and then I’ll pull for banding to cool the column enough to give the cities some love on the front and back side and maybe they can get a nice thump in. That’s a better bet for everyone then rooting for this to become anymore progressive than it already is.

@WVclimo 6z euro. This is what’s from last night so adjust accordingly

@showmethesnow at this point I think we (the northern crew) need to stop rooting for a deamplification trend. The thermal boundary seems pretty locked in now and all the less amplified solutions are doing are killing the storm frankly. Yea a gfs type solution might get 2-3” into DC but at the expense of there being a 6”+ area anywhere. I hate rooting against a lot of snow in DC but if it means we get another 3-4” marginal event up here instead of 6-10” sorry I’m not taking another one for the team lol. I guess what I’m saying is given the depth of cold we have to work with I don’t see a way for this to be a big snow into DC. If it amps up enough it pushes the boundary to the NW and it’s a 6-10” snow NW VA and for us. If it trends weaker it might snow into DC but it’s no more than a 3-5” storm anywhere. I don’t want to see this be a repeat of early March 2014 and become the pathetic waste that turned into. Best case scenario is an amped solution that thumps enough to get some decent snows into the cities while still crushing our area. But that’s a tightrope act.

They will have to adjust their forecast. No way around that.

I hope it doesn’t end up going down that road. I was in PA then but this area got fringed by both those waves in March 2014 after looking like the bullseye from 2 days out.

It uses critical thickness and temps at crucial layers to estimate snow ratios not just use 10-1.

Kuchera but you have to subtract this from tonight

Hmmm...is there a way to get snow into DC without it cutting down on my totals up here? Lol

Shame to get it south it has to be weaker. As it continues to shift south the max snow also gets cut down each run. We needed a deeper cold airmass so that we could get a juiced amped system and still stay south of us. Yes some snow is better than lots of rain but seeing the max snowfall dwindle from 10-20” to about 6-8 now and knowing if it does continue shifting south it might end up a 3-6” storm is kind of sad.

This is just for the Sunday storm. 24 hour snowfall. 10-1

It’s been bleeding south a little for days. 48 hours ago it was mixing all the way to State College PA and jacking western and northeastern PA. The last run the jack is HGR to my area to just north of Philly. It just hasn’t jumped 50 miles any one run. It’s been a 10 mile slow bleed south almost every run.

Sounds like just about everything came into agreement tonight. Mostly rain SE of 95. Mostly snow NW. battleground somewhere right through the corridor.

Double edged sword. It’s south because it’s weaker. Because it’s weaker less precip and dynamic cooling.

Problem is the trend we need is less amped and that also means weaker storm and less precip. 3k is close but if it gets any weaker no one is getting more than 3-6” even in the jack.

Both NAMs have a slightly better cold press this run early on. That’s a good thing. Overall there does seem to be a slight south bleed across guidance right now. Will it be enough for the 95 corridor is the question.

Subtract this from this and you get an idea

Yea and if clown snow maps were reality my climo would be more like Jay Peak.

Putting my climo chips on the table

Being guarded.

My goal is to end the weekend with 8” otg. Have 2” right now left from last night...if I can get 2-3 of slop tonight and 3-5 from Sunday it’s very doable.

18z euro is a beat down for HGR. It’s ~80-90% snow for my house. Flips for about 2 hours then back to snow according to the hourly plots. It starts as snow everywhere NW of 95 for a time. Looks a lot like the NAM now. At least it’s not the NW outlier anymore.

18z euro is SE of the 12z by a little. Track is identical to the 12k NAM. Through NW SC across southeast VA and southern Delmarva. Need another 50-75 mile adjustment. But it trended the right way.

I guess but if we toss the euro (I know) and the gfs as the two outliers isn’t all the rest of the guidance within a 15-20 error of a big snow? That’s not out of the question.

I give you one lousy job to do...

I’m talking about this sub in general not my yard. The mood suddenly turned pretty bleak this afternoon and I’m not sure why when everything came in pretty much like it was. Gfs is still snow. Euro still rain. Everything else some in between variation. It feels like nothings changed except the mood did.