psuhoffman

Euro over amps in the medium range sometimes. We’ve seen it plenty. It’s still better but when it loses that’s often why.

The consensus of everything has us both in the jack zone 24 hours out. Chips fall time I guess. Maybe this is our one flush hit this season.

Closer view

I’m telling you the next one!!! Lol

Very tight gradient on hrdrps. Nw of a BWI to IAD line it’s a pretty good beat down.

I’m following this like you. Fog combined with the inch of mostly ice from last night is preserving my snowpack a bit. I’m really rooting for some to survive to tomorrow as every little bit helps given the marginal temps. Even a 1 degree difference from snowcover can be huge here. I’m cautiously optimistic but I know with the high dew points all it would take is an hour of sunshine this afternoon and we can kiss our snow goodbye.

I was trying to be sub centered in that post. Not everyone is on a 1000 foot ridge on the northern edge of the region. What might prevent this from being a better result for more of the forum imo is the lack of true cold ahead of the wave. The track is workable if we had that. Might mix some but probably would still be a nice event into the cities. But with the stale marginal cold in place it creates a double bind for 95 south. More amped and waa easily presses warm layers into the region. Less amped and don’t get the dynamics needed to overcome the marginal surface temps. Places without any elevation are stuck in that double bind and walking a tightrope needed just enough amp to get a thump and not enough to press the whole mid level boundary north. A colder antecedent airmass would have solved that and gave all of us more upside here.

6” is my target not to be disappointed on this one. 8 is my full win and 10 is my strip naked in celebration.

Rgem definitely. 3k is kind of pathetic here. Best qpf is south. Only about 5” up here.

On the bright side the 12k has been a joke lately. Really really bad. On the down side it’s typically been over amped as an error. This time it’s under amped. But in general the 12k NAM has been the worst meso model imo lately.

What’s really preventing more upside here is the true cold air is hanging back behind this wave. We are working with stale cold and just a tiny bit of cold push that bleeds over the top but the real cold is with the high that is behind the system. We need a thump of precip to overcome marginal temps. And even up here that is true to some extent. Most guidance even has me hovering around 32 during the storm.

I can endorse the rgem. Holds the line on amp. Nice 3-5 hour thump of precip. Gets good snow into the urban area...or as good as can be expected with the marginal temps we have to work with.

Ok the weaker/southern crap needs to stop now!!! When I brought up March 2014 I didn’t mean for this to immediately start trending that way wrt deamplifcation. Problem is there is way less low level cold to work with this time so a weak squashed wave like that will just be a sad result for everyone this time. That time at least the cold was legit enough for southern areas to get snow.

Yea but like I feared it’s also one more slight bump weaker from being no significant snow anywhere. That 6”+ area keeps shrinking and is close to being completely gone of it deamplifies anymore.

Agree but as the storm is trending more progressive there is less and less lift on the back side after the low clears. That’s where the dry trend is coming from. The front still has a decent thump of precip but we lost the back half.

Ok you need to chill. There are some places in this sub that will get snow. Some people will be happy with only 2-3” and a lot of people in the northern 1/2 here have a shot at that. And places that aren’t in a shadow in the northwest 1/3 might get a significant snow. Not everyone lives in a snow hole. Im very sympathetic to you. I’ve lived in shadow zones before. Pine Grove PA was one. State College is actually a frustrating place if you like big storms. Where I lived near Philly along the Delaware River was one. Between the UHI and the near sea level elevation and there was often more snow in every direction. Get out of the Delaware valley on either side and snowfall went up. I know how much it sucks. So I moved. I know not everyone can just move. And I truly remember how frustrating it was living in a shadow zone and yours is likely worse. But I also know your issues are local. A lot of those storms that failed in your yard were very good snows all around you. Your pessimism towards your yards situation is warranted but projecting that onto the whole region isn’t accurate.

Where is @Snowchaser he got really quiet all of a sudden...

You live in the worst snow shadow in our region. You would need everyone else to get 50” for you to have a shot.

Why you trying to drop things on top of my house!!!! There is a 30 acre lot available about 300 yards down the ridge from me!!! You should think about it @C.A.P.E. Maybe the board should pitch in and buy the lot and turn it into a snow retreat for the weary urban snow weenies.

Your bitterness is legendary

I will honor your sacrifice. Those about to snow salute you

@WxUSAF looks like temps only drop to ~32 nw of the fall line and hover at 33-34 along 95. And that’s on the euro which is still more amplified. So a weaker solution might be even warmer at the surface. Those temps only work during the day in March with rates. Weak precip and that’s white rain.

Pretty marginal, these are the 3 most pertinent panels

That’s 10-1. Kuchera isn’t available for 6z so if comparing snow maps keep that in mind.