psuhoffman

Agree. There was also barely any snow left in that valley just to our north near Highs...weird then there was solid snow again on the next ridge to the north and into Hanover when I went up there last night.

Few flakes falling here already too.

Snow maps are bad among the southern edge not just because of sleet but also how they calculate. So let’s take a spot along 95 for example. It’s 34 degrees and during the period gets .3 qpf. The model calculates that 50% of what falls will be snow, half’s the .3 and says 1.5”. But a half rain/snow mix at 34 degrees isn’t going to be 1.5” it’s white rain. That’s another example of why those things are awful right along the rain snow line. They are ok to glance at just to see trends quickly from run to run but you have to actually look at the soundings if you want to make a real forecast.

32/22 here.

The huchera has been running higher than 10-1 to the NW of the max line and below it to the south. Looking at the hourly precip plots I would say south of a Winchester-Mt Airy-Hereford-Rising Sun line I would shave 1-2” off due to mixing or very marginal temps. NW of that line with elevation might even do slightly better than 10-1 in the banding that sets up there but even there were talking slightly better, like 11-1 or 12-1 Max even on ridges.

I can only handle so much stop A friend at work lives east of the city in middle river. He moved there from Harford county years ago and is always complaining how he gets less snow then everyone else even in the city. I keep telling him if he commuted from the same distance to the northwest he would probably get about 10” more a year and 1-2” more (at least) in most storms.

6z euro 10-1. No kuchera for off hours.

New euro kuchera looks like my snow map. Lol

euro came in colder. Shifted snow south about 10 miles. Not crazy but makes a big difference since so many live in that 10 miles 10-1 Kuch

6-8 is most likely but I could see a few isolated 9-10" reports inside that zone, more likely the further northeast you go in that area and places with some elevation to help with upslope and ratios.

my thinking for tomorrow... good luck to everyone. Hopefully I bust too low everywhere.

I told you

Rain snow line on rgem sets up along a IAD to Baltimore city then northeast along 95 line. NW of there looks like a beat down on the precip type plots

Ask me in 24 hours lol

Are we about to see the last minute north adjustment?

Woah gets the rain/snow line all the way to my door for a time. Yikes. I wanted more amped. Not that much more lol.

It was a reference to the speculation earlier that you and ji are the same person.

Stop talking to yourself.

8” would be my biggest snowfall of the season so I’ll abscond.

Guidance amping up slightly now. Feeling like we have a good shot at a flush hit tomorrow.

Euro over amps in the medium range sometimes. We’ve seen it plenty. It’s still better but when it loses that’s often why.

The consensus of everything has us both in the jack zone 24 hours out. Chips fall time I guess. Maybe this is our one flush hit this season.

Closer view

I’m telling you the next one!!! Lol