psuhoffman

your Right grammer b vary Important with out it youre posts arent goood

Is it just me or does that seem a bit early for a storm that doesn’t start until Friday night and mostly is over the weekend?

This isn’t perfectly accurate in every spot but it’s a good representation.

But if you want a serious answer go northwest and totals rise gradually but then spike significantly near Damascus where you get an elevator rise along the southern end of Parr’s ridge. Damascus is the closest (relative) location with a significantly better snow climo.

Umm there are places in DC that aren’t within 30-45 minutes of DC during rush hour.

Don’t disagree at all with any of this. I’m not worried about the specific micro looks yet though since the climate models have been awful in this pattern lately. There are conflicting signals. Some things I like. Some I don’t. I have no idea yet what will end up the dominant influences this winter. I was just noticing at the macro level everything seems skewed warm. That’s not necessarily a death blow but when we are barely cold enough to snow on the southern fringes of where snow can even be considered a regular occurrence seeing things skew more and more warm isn’t comforting.

The whole northern Hem is a torch though. Other than two small geographic regions everyone is above normal heights. Everyone is focused on our exact location of course but it’s highly unlikely any specific location would look good given that hemispheric look. Technically there is a trough in the means over us but it does us no good.

Jb predicted above normal snow. Unfortunately his predictions are more predictable than they are reliable.

Plenty of sunshine though.

The San Diego snow weenies are in trouble! Jokes aside...on the macro level the propensity for everything to skew warm is troubling. Of course at the micro level it doesn’t mean much. We just need a couple good weeks to skew cold and time it up with a few storms to “win”. But seeing red dominate so often isn’t something I feel good about.

That’s a whole lot of red everywhere... I’ll keep the rest of my thoughts to myself so as to avoid a debate I’d rather not have in here. Cue Avant Regent Vice Hiatus in 3...2...1...

I agree with cape. If ALL the factors stayed the same yes. But the weak nino wasn’t the problem. It’s just it wasn’t dominant enough to offset other negative factors. The mjo was the biggest problem. I’ll take my chances with another weak modoki nino and roll the dice that other things don’t line up to hurt us again.

He isn’t trolling. It’s not intentional.

That makes sense and I agree. Other variables skew a small sample but when I sorted winters by enso last year with the exception of a few blockbuster neutrals skewing neutral enso state upward what you described is pretty evident in the overall means.

But what about the hemispheric energies?

Some speculated that the pacific being on fire muted the nino because of a lack of gradient. If that is true...with the rest of the pacific still a raging sst inferno if we do get even a slightly cool neutral to weak Niña look might that behave like a super Niña due to the extreme gradient?

No one is policing your posts. But people are free to respond to your posts and dissent. You can expect anything you want! Im just pointing out the reality of our climo.

Or to put it another way...go back over the last 30 winters or so and be honest with yourself and determine how many would have left you satisfied by your current standards. If it’s way less than 50% then either your expectations have to change or your location.

Yea well you know where you live. People have to be realistic. We have enough records going back long enough to know that the majority of our winters will be sub 20” in much of this forum. And when we get a lucky run like 2014/2015/2016 we know we will pay the piper. The median snowfall for places around the cities isn’t likely going to suddenly jump from 15 to 25” like that. So enjoy the 3 or so years each decade that we get flush hits and realize the rest of the time is likely going to suck. That’s our climo.

That is a big reason the sst derived NAO forecasts are extremely negative. Those aren’t perfect either but have performed better than climate models lately.

The amplitude of the ridge trough configuration out west did us no favors. With that deep a trough in the west we needed a monster NAO block to offset and we got weak sauce instead. That cansips is ok looking and it’s a slight adjustment either way from being great or crap.

The winter NAO runs in cycles. I have no idea if or when it will flip.

Yes because the -NAO never developed. A ridge off the west coast can work with blocking. Without it the SE ridge flexes too much for us.

The euro look is troubling but it failed miserably on that domain 2 of the last 3 years. Some of the SST derived NAO index predictions are as negative as I’ve ever seen them. Those have also failed some in recent years but not usually as spectacularly as the climate models have.

That’s a look I would roll with. The ridge in the eastern PAC would cause a mean flow into the CONUS out of Canada. It’s far enough west that the dreaded southeast ridge pops but with plenty of cold pressing to the central US and that blocking/50/50 setup a SE ridge wouldn’t be that bad when it’s as weak as it is on that plot. I would bet some decent snows happened with that look. All that analysts is useless though since I put no stock in one run or one climate model from this far out.