psuhoffman

2004-5 is a pretty good match if we include weak central pac ninos.

@Bob Chill for example...when I was looking at the QBO for this year the other day, I pulled out the 11 years going back to 1950 that had a somewhat similar QBO trend as this one going into winter. And there problem is only 2 of those 11 were enso neutral, and both of them were prior to 1990. Both were snowy winters...but they were during the climo period when enso neutral winters were generally snowy. So... without having any similar neutral QBO years in the last 30 years to use as a test subject its impossible to know for sure if the same qbo enso neutral would favor less snow now...or if one of the reasons neutral winters haven't been as good is that we havent had that combination lately. We can guess...but there is just no way to know for sure with such small sample sizes. The optimist in me wants to believe that maybe the results won't be as good as they were in the 60's and 70s with similar conditions...but still would be better than a "typical" neutral climo now. But maybe I just don't want to be pessimistic before Winter even starts. BTW if we want to ignore all other influences and just feel good...the 4 best matches for a descending QBO year that was at a similar point in the phase change as we are right now...the best 4 matches were 1978-79, 1995-96, 2002-3, and 2004-5. That isn't a bad analog set. I think we would all take an average of those 4 years! Shame the QBO isn't the only thing that matters.

One troubling trend...and the reason our odds of having an above avg snowfall winter have gone way down, is the change in climo for a enso neutral winter. From 1960-1989 6 out of 8 neutral years were above avg snowfall. But from 1990 to 2019 only 2 out of 9 were above avg. That sudden flip in outcomes for enso neutral has completely changed our climo. Going back 100 years Nina years were always crap and moderate nino's were always good. But neutral years used to be good most of the time and lately they are pretty much just as bad as a nina year. It is as if we need more and more to line up good to get a good winter compared to 50 years ago. That does give me some pause...except I see some signs that a lot of the other influences this year line up in a way that might buck that trend. I also see some signs that the tropical forcing is behaving more like a modoki nino than a neutral winter and that forcing is more important than the actual SST anomalies. Its how those anomalies influence the pattern drivers that matters...not the actual SST themselves. If the forcing is the way we want I could care less what the SST anomalies are. Also none of the neutral years recently seems to be a good match for the combo of QBO/PDO that we have going into this winter. But again, the trick is knowing which factors are more important absent dominant enso influences.

Icon has had the same general late phase northern stream bomb to our north solution the last several runs. No change.

I’m trying to get my thought typed up but I’m in a very similar place. 2 months ago my thoughts were more pessimistic but some key factors like the PDO, QBO, hints at the MJO base state look to be breaking our way. The AO/NAO looks ambiguous to me but if enough of those other factors go right we can live without a perfect Atlantic at all times.

I've seen data that indicates March might have the highest correlation between the NAO and cold/snow here BUT...that probably is because you need so much to line up to get snow here that late. That doesn't necessarily mean the NAO influences the pattern more then., In 2002 we got NAO help early and allowed us those December snows, then the PAC took over the rest of the winter. Something similar this year would be acceptable.

About avg in most places but it all came from a storm in November and then a weird late February rain to snow storm that was all gone a day later. In between it was a barren wasteland for snow. I doubt many would enjoy a repeat of that. Even I would come away somewhat disappointed by that despite “decent” numbers on paper.

@WxWatcher007 couldn’t have said it better

Does our climo really allow us to be picky about when or how it snows?

He may be right wrt a warm December, definitely has been the trend lately. But the thing is in the last decade the years we had a good cold period in November and or part of December then a warmup the pattern did flip colder again at some point and we had a decent winter or better. Years it torched November and December mostly went on to be duds. So regardless if the snap theory (and I’m not totally buying it) this is a good sign imo.

Where was the rubber band all those times it was 80 in December?

?

It’s more predictable

@Bob Chill welcome back. I find it funny that when the pattern sucks the long range discussion is dominated by fear of persistence, but when it’s good it’s dominated by fear of the flip.

Thank you. We are all doing well. This time of year is just crazy busy with soccer, debate tournaments, and my sons & wife’s birthday and holloween all the same week. Plus this year we have two bathrooms and a kitchen renovation ongoing. Just trying to catch my breath. Long winded weather posts have had to take a backseat. Hope all is well in mappyland.

Lol Im trying to “cut down” but I was planning to post my thoughts on Winter very soon, as soon as I can find time to finish looking at some stuff. So you will get it, be careful what you wish for... but I do like more of what I see now than not. Of course my thoughts aren’t worth a whole lot.

It’s possible climate change has eliminated the old correlations and rendered his methodology irrelevant until a new baseline for what normal wrt snowfall advance is and how it impacts the AO is established.

@frd I love your posts and I get the difference between providing information and endorsing it. You drop nuggets in here and it’s great. People can choose what to take seriously and what not too. That’s not your problem.

Hopefully this year talk about the Strat gets neglected because we are too busy analyzing medium to short range threats.

My climo up here is so different despite my relative close proximity so expectations are different. But I did live right next to IAD for 8 years and what they had last year would have met my bar for a good winter every time even given high expectations. When I was living down there I basically wanted just one warning level snowfall and a few advisory level events and I called it a win. Some in here (they know who they are) seem to need 1996,2003,2010,2014 level snowfall to be happy. That means they are miserable about 85% of the time. That would be fine except they also think we all need to know how miserable they are and they should share with us how awful it is EVERY winter that it doesn’t snow every 3 days! What I don’t get is our climo is pretty clear and isn’t changing, at least not the way they want. So why don’t they move somewhere that gets more snow? I know moving isn’t always easy but if it really ruins their world the way they act like it does then just do it. Why be miserable every winter like this?

No apologies necessary. It’s all friendly conversation. WRT last season the long range guidance continuously mishandled the forcing in the central and western pacific and so it continuously got the effects wrong in the long range. They kept going to typical modoki Nino looks but reality didn’t.

That seems a bit harsh for a winter where 2/3 airports beat average and most in this forum got above median snowfall. It was a letdown because of inflated epic expectations. Taken alone it was better than 60-70% of our winters in many locations.

Definitely. I’m not negative on winter at all. I see some positive signs. Some things that aren’t great. But all in all I see more I like than not. That probably means not a blockbuster but not a dud either. Maybe better than “most” of our winters. The details of a storm in early November won’t impact my expectations for winter much.

I’ve had arguments with people in the NWP field and I get that predicting snow is only one factor but snowfall is one of the most high profile events they do predict. Below tropical in impact but snowfall is more common and impacts a much larger population in the U.S. Severe also but that’s more a nowcast then medium/long range thing. When it comes to medium range snowfall is the prime time game for many and yet they roll out a model that sucks at it. I just don’t get it. And I’ve defended our NWP on almost everything.

Actually if the new gfs still has a cold bias and we adjust for that it would explain the discrepancy with last nights euro. Remove the colder profile and the enhanced baroclonocity from that and you get a weaker wave sliding off (that is slightly farther north) with very little frozen anywhere.