psuhoffman

I’ve suddenly got a headache

The pacific base state is almost the opposite of what we had to fight most of last year. Every attempt to shift seems to snap back pretty quickly. On the other side the AO/NAO seems to be variable but that’s not nearly as hostile as most of the last decade. The next week or so is big as that is about when the signs of problems wrt the pac showed up last year. Give me a -epo/+pna pacific base state with a variable not hostile AO/NAO for Dec-Mar and I’ll take my chances!

I think what a lot of experts “mean” is that the warming isn’t going to have a major impact on the TPV. It’s confusing the way they talk about it because warning is warming and anyone can see the temps and deduce it’s warmer. But when they say a major SSWE they typically mean is it having a major impact to the troposphere. There is a lot of discussion that this current warming isn’t going to do that for various reasons that I don’t care to get into since most of its above my pay grade.

Usually they are just unhappy about something and doing this...

I think for now it's also relevant to see what the op GFS does because the GEFS is currently based on a completely different model. For now we don't have an ensemble suit for the op GFS and so while we definitely cannot put that much stock into a single run at range, its the only thing we have giving us a hint at what it "thinks" att.

I think 99% of us here know not to take ANYTHING in the long range too seriously. But that said, it's still better to see good runs than bad ones. And looking at general pattern trends is not the same as looking at a specific synoptic event at day 15. So I think we should be able to post when something looks good in a general pattern sense and log it into "this is good" evidence without having to always have the disclaimer that we shouldn't take it literally. I would rather just ignore the random posts we get every so often by some clown telling us not to look at long range guidance.

The WAA could come back, and I won’t kick it out of bed if it does, but I’m mildly interested in some snow with the upper low. I know the guidance is pretty dry and warm with that but given that track I find it hard to believe we don’t at least get some instability snow showers.

I am pretty sure we are going to "warm up" by around Dec 7th-10th as we briefly lose the pacific and the TPV is moving across the pole creating a brief but extremely positive AO. What I am looking at is whether we can flip back cold again sometimes mid December in time for the holidays.

The best news is that the AO looks to quickly flip back after a short spike positive.

Oh not a chance.... I’m not taking the GFS side. I’m just on the you’re an a$$clown side

As opposed to your pristine record of unbiased analysis. Btw how do you manage to post while under water???

Even during the back to back La Niña’s when odds of climo snow are like 18% he predicted above both years! Rotfl

Brand =

I’ve always suspected the North Atlantic Tripoli sst look was more an effect than a cause. As @Bob Chill often points out a few degree difference in cold waters in the high latitudes isn’t changing the equation that much. The difference between 42 and 50 degree water is not adding as much heat and moisture to the atmosphere as a change from 78 to 86 degree water. Imo the warmer SSTs near Greenland are from the ridging with a -NAO and the colder sst near New Foundland is from the constant parade of storms forced through that region by the NAO blocking. Because the NAO tends to run in multi year cycles that can create the mirage of causality at times. I do think there is a feedback cycle though that can contribute. For instance, the colder sst profile in the 50/50 domain is often caused by storminess there, and enough storms blowing up there can help contribute to ridging into the NAO domain. So there can be a chicken or the egg type play there. For now I’m not going to over think it. It’s just plain good to see lots of lows bombing into the 50/50 space. If that continues it will up our chances significantly.

Gefs starting to look like the euro heading towards mid December.

It’s not as good in that they are temporary features and so the window is shorter. But if we get a year where everything wants to amplify through that domain it will create multiple opportunities to time something up. We will likely get some hits. It wouldn’t be 2010 epicness without a stout block but that tendency could be the difference between a sub par year and a pretty good one.

There are several things I like seeing right now. The mjo being muted before it gets to the maritime continent. The sst in the north Pac. The tendency for troughs to kick out of the west quickly. But the one that I am most thrilled with is that almost every system this year is amplifying through the 50/50 space. The last few years systems would either get squashed or pull up into Quebec and the WAR would hold. This year everything else up a 50/50. Keep that up and it’s a ticking time bomb, only a matter of time before something goes off.

If we can just get a pattern repeat of basically the last few weeks and the next week sometime between Dec 15 and Feb 15th I think most of us will be happy.

I really like the north Pac SST look. @Bob Chill I know you said it was ok but given the crazy warm base state the current look might be as good as it gets. There really aren’t many truly cold pools. It’s warm and warmer. So seeing the warmest anomalies where we want them and the coldest where we want (relative to the current hot tub base state) is about all we can ask for. It’s still kind of a blend between a PDO and a VM state but that current look is actually better for our purposes than a pure pdo look. It seems to be having the desired effect. Regardless of what modeling shows the pattern across the north Pac keeps reloading into a generally favorable one. I think the trend away from the crazy +AO is a natural response to the beating from above and below that the PV is taking. I see nothing that would suggest we get some prolonged +AO of death. Finally I see things in the Indian Ocean and western Pac that I think suggest we avoid mjo hell this year. The sst patterns near the maritime continent have flipped. Due to that every time an mjo wave tries to propagate into warm phases it dies and reforms back over the western Indian Ocean. That may not continue all winter but for now it’s acting as a block on the typical mjo progression and might help save December from the expected torch. I continue to be cautiously optimistic in the big picture I’m seeing right now long term.

Where’d that awful pattern go?

Try harder

Gefs looks less awful heading into mid December.