psuhoffman

Concur with all this. If we can get some snow around Xmas it bumps the winter grade up a notch imo.

I must have missed that call while I was enjoying this December torch. Sorry it’s too easy after he was a jerk to everyone. But he knows his stuff and he very well may be right and perhaps the IOD was a hindrance but instead of causing a torch it simply muted what would have been a better pattern in December. His mistake was focusing on just one factor and then making such a concrete declaration based on that...then carrying on like a pompous arse when there was dissent.

When the western trough first showed up there was fear of permanence because we couldn’t see beyond. The reason I’ve suspected it’s not was how it coincides with the rising heights in the AO and NAO domain. Often that creates a shake up because the TPV weakens and gets displaced. If it gets forced west that often causes a temporary trough west ridge east look until the blocking establishes and usually the jet then splits and cuts underneath and then it’s go time. And frankly given the blocking and the propensity for 50/50 lows this year I’m not sure we ever suffer a prolonged torch. Might just continue this seasonal variance with storm chances if we get lucky with timing then roll right into a blocking regime (if the blocking is real). That is a huge if though but there are reasons to be optimistic.

It’s very dry

Glad to see you’re in mid season form already! Seriously though you have to move out of that precip shadow you live in. I witnessed the same phenomenon in central PA living east of the Alleghany spine. Anytime there was any southwesterly wind component it was death to our precip. It was soul crushingly frustrating.

Was just thinking that. If that moisture feed holds together my window would be around midnight to get some accumulation. Later tonight 95 could get clipped by the next wave as it pulls out. But the whole thing looks significantly weaker and disorganized compared to 24/48 hours ago. People keep saying “these never work” but they do plenty of times. It seems here the energy split with too much hanging back to get an organized wave. Instead we just have small pulses along the front. Hopefully you guys at least get on the board. So far there has been some accumulation north and south of you. Regardless of what happens here I hope I wake up to reports of some accumulations along 95 from the trailing deathband.

It’s snowing here. Way too light to do much though.

Gfs shows the path to a white Xmas miracle. I’m not saying the 17/18th system isn’t a threat. But if it does end up phasing with the TPV and cutting that will pinwheel the whole PV down to our north then northeast and set up a good prolonged window of opportunity right before Xmas. And given the fact the stj keeps throwing waves at us every 3-4 days I find it likely something would take advantage. This pattern isn’t perfect but keep the stj active and the pattern workable and amplified and I think it’s only a matter of time.

Ehh the jack is about 2.5 miles nw of my house there. I toss.

All I know is this is the most active "torch" pattern ever. I am sure eventually we will get a legit one week warm period and those who have been calling for it since mid November will say "told ya so".

That is probably more likely than a hit, frankly because any storm in mid December is way more likely to miss us to the NW than any other solution, but this setup has a lot more resistance to ridging ahead of it than the last few so I give it more of a chance. Still not likely, but not as much of a long shot as the last few.

Even up here the "average" of all guidance continues to chip away at snow totals. 24 hours ago consensus of CMC/GFS/Euro was for 4-6" up this way. I'm not saying that was ever believable but that is what they showed. Now its down to what we kind of always expected 2" in favored spots and less everywhere else. Climo beats individual runs of guidance in these situations most of the time.

trends are important but given the competing nature of the signals right now and the progressive variable nature of the cold season so far taking any details from specific runs in the medium and long range is unproductive. The look will change, maybe better maybe worse. Tracking how the broader pattern is trending is more important than how a specific run looks from range. I am happy so long as we continue to avoid an extended shutout pattern taking over.

gotta love the GFS, stalls the wave to our west for days until the flow relaxes just enough to cut it due north into a 1040 high. Even in that ridiculous evolution we would get a pretty good period of frozen but I highly doubt that is how it would play out.

The issue is the HL ridging is just getting established as the 17-18th threat comes along. If the storm this weekend interacts with the TPV and ridging over the top right it could block the storm next week. But I am actually just fine with the GFS idea this morning of phasing that next storm up to our west because the natural see saw reaction of that would pinwheel the whole TPV down over top of us and set up a cold pattern (and given the consistently active STJ probably a legit threat) heading into xmas week. We could win either way. The worst case scenario would be a weaker system on the 17th that somehow doesn't produce but also doesn't phase and then the whole pattern simply breaks down after. That would be the solution I don't want to see.

The one consistent this cold season so far has been a progressive amplified pattern. Neither cold nor warm periods last very long but overall things seem to be biased slightly towards the colder side. Keep that going all winter and I think we win enough by our standards to have an acceptable winter. Won't make Ji happy since most of our snow would melt pretty quickly each time but for the rest of us that arent delusional about where we live would take it.

Technically there is too much separation between the 50/50 vortex and the main TPV and the east coast ridge is able to "split the block" so to speak. Dangerous to project but the causes the system around the 18th to phase with the TPV and pull that down and from the look around 200 its setting up a damn nice pattern heading towards xmas though so maybe that isnt a bad way to go. At the least it would probably prevent the typical torchmas we are used too.

mid-december climo here still kinda sucks. There have been plenty of great looking h5 setups that lead to snow to our north this time of year, even in blockbuster winters we remember fondly. Had we not had that fluky upper low snow band on xmas morning that 2002 storm would be remembered as a major fail despite a good looking pattern. 1995 we saw a major storm run to our north the week before xmas despite a damn near perfect block. Even in January and February a good pattern doesn't guaruntee snow in your back yard. It simply gets you in the game.

That is always a worry, especially before xmas when in general we typically lack the depth of cold air-masses along the east coast to offer enough resistance to WAA to overcome imperfections in the primary low track. I will hang my hat on this though...we have already had several absolutely beautiful H5 passes this cold season that failed primarily due to the antecedent airmass being mediocre, and mediocre isn't good enough in November and early December. Keep that same phenomenon happening and we will likely win a few times once into prime climo. And a few "wins" is all it takes for us to both hit our "near climo" expectations. Add in some luck and maybe even better than that.

My gut is pessimistic but I’ll hug the euro which has shown the max band over me for like 8 straight runs until it bails on me sometime today.

You made me think it was a good run. I looked and was like eeeew.

@Bob Chill I know there was that one euro run but I always thought the “storm after the storm” made more sense. Get the wave break from this weekends storm to help flip the NAO and knock down the WAR and we would have a window of opportunity behind it that didn’t rely on perfect timing. Still need to get lucky. No setup is a sure thing.

I mean the threat next week has a lot more upside but if that HRDPS death band sets up over you I suspect that will change quick.

The gefs has been targeting further east consistently and it’s something I’ve noted as I’m seeing everything else slowly adjust towards it.

@Bob Chill was thinking the same thing...about thinking the same thing.