psuhoffman

The contour gradients aren't the same.

The south move 2 days ago meant the typical 50-75 mile north trend at the end will just make this an epic tease.

If I were south of D.C. I would still have an eye on it because you never know. How often have we seen a sneaky band set up north of projections 24 hours out. But for the rest of us any north trend only makes the miss more painful. Helps that it's early December and I have a lot of confidence we will get ours this year. If I was totally healthy I might consider talking the wife into a family snow road trip down 81 somewhere. Southwest VA looks like a good bet right now for a nice foot of snow and an easier escape then NC.

Lol that will only make it hurt more

It's not actually north at all it's just faster.

Meteocentre has 18z ggem?

It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least.

Take a look at the H5 map over New England.

AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hopefully you are like the "ex-forum member" soon

NAM and GFS was south...everything else north.

No one here wants you to do any posts

Here we go lol

They took down storm mode...that did it

Poor Richmond even the amped up solution screws them over.

Rock meets bottom

I'm an a$$. I couldn't help it. Ill keep casually checking out each run of course and crazy things happen but that wall to our north looks impenetrable.

Get rid of that lobe diving down from Hudson Bay and we would have been good.

We needed the 50/50 and that lobe rotating around to trend weaker/north and it trended stronger/south. That simple. Ironically given the improvements in other areas had that situation simply stayed the same as it looked 72 hours ago we might be in the game now... the storm has pretty much stayed where it was despite the issues up there because of a stronger stj wave and the typical correction towards a healthier precip shield on the north side. But those changes cant save us because the confluence keeps trending south every run.

Yea the h5 looks a hot mess! There have been marginal improvements in the precip shield today but the H5 look has actually continued to degrade away from what we want for more then conversational fringe snow IMO. The issues over new england have only trended worse and the upper level situation in the midwest looks a mess.

Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse. Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours...

At least it seems the south trend from yesterday has stopped and perhaps we are seeing a slight nudge north now...but all we are doing is getting back to where we were the last few days.

Assuming there isn't a south trend and its still looking about as it is now...I wouldn't even totally check out after 0z. God knows we have seen weirder things happen...but after tonight we would be heading into needing a January 2000 and March 2001 type bust territory. It's still close...but I really am not liking the trend in the flow over New England. We need that to relax and it seems like its coming in stronger each run.

There seemed like some minor but noticeable shifts north in the confluence through about 78 hours and it did cause a minor slight bump northwest. BUT... after that things ended up the same spot anyways because that lobe of the pinwheel up in the NS dove down even stronger and south (again). That feature has been trending worse and worse over the last couple days and its offsetting the (minor) improvements in other areas that may show up run to run. A lot of those improvements are what I was kind of banking on to give us a chance but that required not having a degradation of the flow in the NS. If we look at where the confluence is up there its not even close really...we need it to back off quite a bit to match up with where it was in storms that got significant snows up into our area. Possible I guess but its going the wrong way right now. The only thing I could see that could change this equation that much would be if the models are all just totally messing up the phasing and that upper low in the Midwest phases in cleanly instead of holding back and acting like a kicker. That could pump heights in front enough to change the equation...and that is the kind of complicated thing that perhaps all the guidance is struggling with. But that is a pretty low probability. However, the issues to our northeast seem even less likely to resolve themselves. I know its the NS and those vorts are hard to pin down but its that whole lobe rotating through quebec that is the problem not any one individual vort...and no matter how the guidance handles those vorts that whole mess drops down and squashes everything every run. To me that indicates that unless we get a phased bomb this just isnt' going to work.