psuhoffman

Do they really need an extra push?

Lol a lobe of the 50/50 vortex rotates down on top of it and suppresses it south of us. Slides east southeast from TN. That’s what happened last December. And I remember when guidance first started picking up on it at range we said “no way will that be right from this range”. I am not predicting anything like that again. Just laughing at the depiction. This was a good run imo. I’m happy.

That’s what I want to see...when the rain snow line starts out down in NC it gives us a lot more wiggle room.

There’s the cold!!!

More confluence to the north on gfs for the Dec 22 threat. High stronger and better positioned. I suspect a colder solution then 12/18z.

It could happen...we’ve seen perfect h5 presentations lead to rain before. January 2016 we had one before the blizzard. But the antecedent airmass was really bad then. This will have some cold in front. I am skeptical of the warm solution with that track. I can remember a few times mid winter when from range guidance saw a warmer profile with a southern track system then was reality. We will see.

For the record I think you have the perfect balance of freedom with basic ground rules and decency standards here. Thanks for that! You and all the mods.

@NorthArlington101 @JakkelWx One last thing wrt 33... posting content that originated on 33andrain “could” be a copyright violation if the creator does not consider it public or fair use. However I made sure all of the posts I made were content that did not originate on 33. The creator has proprietary rights not 33. If there were any violations they would be equally guilty.

Oh I wasn’t trying not to get caught. Don’t really care if they ban me if that is their reaction towards collaborative sharing of information. What I love most about this place is the free exchange of information and discourse. I have no interest in being a part of a group with that attitude.

I stumbled onto this tidbit

Interesting point here

Seems there is some interesting strat happenings. Not sure where I found this.

It’s not their intellectual property so it’s not a legal matter. But they can ban you since it’s a private forum. But since this is by far my main home and I care not a lick about that...

Oh I am definitely doing it!!!!

Seems someone is a little full of themselves.

Euro caved to gfs on the tpv sliding east vs retrograde west next week. But this run it dropped the whole thing into New England and squashed any storm threat. Lol

There are only a few examples but winter months with a descending QBO were fairly blocky once below 5 or so. One reason I’ve not been overly concerned with the slow descent. As long as we got close to 0 by January I felt it was fine.

One thing is showing, the high latitudes are not averse to blocking this year. This will be the second nice NAO block and we’ve had 2 nice EPO blocks already this cold season.

Yea the gefs just accelerated the process of getting towards a good look. Cuts the pac trough under the ridge quicker. Caved to the euro there too. If the gefs is close to right here suppresses is a way bigger threat than a rainstorm around the 22nd. if we just get that pna ridge about 100 miles west that’s a classic HECS look actually.

A front runner wave is common in this setup. That’s often our best chance at a decent event from this setup.

baby steps, but a step towards the euro, on the GFS ETA: compared to 0z....forgot to look at 6z

@Bob Chill that crazy ridiculous block on the GFS yesterday is now on the EPS and all other guidance for that matter day 6/7 lol. Right now the PAC kind of mutes the impact but we shouldn't be shocked if a storm ends up forced under instead in that look. ETA: at the very least we are going to avoid one of the things that is a bad omen...a VERY positive NAO/AO number for December. It might still come in slightly positive for the month but we wont have some +2 type number and that is good because there are plenty of examples of slightly positive AO/NAO Decembers that flipped negative for January/February...but there are not many examples of extremely positive Decembers that flipped. The recent developments up top put us into the range where a better second half is way more believable.

@frd this is just a hunch and I probably won't articulate this well enough although I will try, but one of the things that has me most hopeful right now is that I kind of have the gut feeling we are experiencing the worst pattern winter has to throw at us and yet its muted and not that bad. We are going through the same basic progression we are used to early season except the results are muted by this years base state fighting back in a positive way imo. There are some similarities to last year, only this year the MJO was muted and didnt go ape through warm phases. The background state seems more conducive to blocking episodes either from the EPO side or NAO side. Last year the pattern did improve, I know it didnt live up to high expectations but we did get a decent amount of snow in January and February. This year when some of the typical season progression happens and things "improve" along with our climo just getting more favorable...I have a feeling we will get a pretty good pattern at some point.

Euro is better, but it’s not so superior that its likely correct even when the preponderance of evidence is against it. We get frustrated that it feels like the non snowy solutions always win but that’s because usually the non snowy solutions are the majority only we focus on the runs that show snow. Even when the ensembles show a mean snow of 4-5” often it gets there with 30-40% showing massive hits and 50-60% showing nothing. When the super majority of guidance suggests snow in the medium range it does snow more often than not. That’s just a rare occurrence compared to the plethora of times one or two runs show snow and then cave to the majority that don’t.

When the NAO does flip it often happens around day 5-10 but people still seem surprised. NWP has very little skill past day 10 with that. When there is a clear signal and the atmospheric base state is in congruence with that then nwp can be somewhat reliable at range. But of course those are also the times seasonal forecasts are easier. But when there are weak or conflicting signals or the base state is incongruent with those signals the long range nwp is useless because in my experience after day 10 they try to revert to whatever they think the base state should be regardless of the pattern.