psuhoffman

Don’t you have 5” otg?

Most guidance has today mainly south of us northerners...nws upped us to 4-6 yesterday which right now looks like a very minor bust. We will see. But he is negative so he will make the 1” bust into a big deal. Still it’s slightly a bummer to be somewhat left out. My bar always seems to be 4”. That feels like a significant snow to me. Didn’t make it this time. Banding stayed about 5 miles south all night.

2.4”. 5 miles south of me has 4.5”. The Fringe was real Really happy for the dc/Baltimore area though.

Hrrr looks good even up here tomorrow

That banding out by Hagerstown looks like it's heading our way...

Thanks crankywxguy Go enjoy your snow. You are getting crushed. If this bumps north I’ll be fine. If it doesn’t oh well I always win it’s your turn.

There is some heavier banding just coming into range in Garrett County also that could work its way up here.

Yea it will be close

Short term I’m not seeing as much northerly trajectory on the banding to our south as I’d like. We have been stuck in really light stuff as south of us gets the goods. Actually have been getting fringed. If that band can shift 10 miles north...but it looks like that’s going to be a struggle. The real question is does and banding with the upper level vort pass make it up here tomorrow. If we can pull off 2-3” from that, that’s how we can still get a win here. We are definitely living on the edge with this one. Hopefully this isn’t the real fringe finally catching up with us.

25/22 here now, just got to an inch. Snowing steady now...but ratio's don't seem all that high att. I don't think I have had heavy enough rates or enough lift to get truly high ratios. I would guess around 11 or 12-1 right now. Nothing really special. I get over 15-1 ratios on this ridge a LOT. Many of my biggest storms the local coop recorded over 15-1. Around 17-1 is common. To get those ratios you need to get into dome decent banding and better lift though, if its snowing very lightly with needles that isn't going to get it done. If I can actually get into some banding tomorrow like the 3k says...that is when I can really clean up and pile up numbers with very little qpf. Upper low passes up here with upslope enhancement are awesome.

That band just coming out of WV looks nice

Sorry for your loss. Enjoy the snow and whatever respite it brings.

Sure. I took Stephen fishing up at Codorus SP a couple times last summer. I’m no expert but we got a few bites. He was excited to catch his first fish.

.4 should be ~6” up here and that’s sweet. Don’t care what happens south of me if I get 5-6”. Hope you get a foot. I’m not like Ji I don’t need to be the jack every time. It’s more about meeting or beating expectations going in and at least covering the ground.

This won’t be your only one this season. But enjoy. First is always the best.

Very light snow starting here. 29/15. Ready for my fringing!!!

Ouch! I'm ok with getting 4" when DC gets 6-8 but that would really hurt.

@Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west? That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements. The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding. Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here!

my wife said it was snowing up in Manchester a little while ago.

As usual we did get the north trend at the end. It's a pretty good bet with southern stream systems. BUT the shift south between 100-72 hours out took us out of it. Had it still been targeting richmond and Charlottesville as the bullseye going into the last 72 hours we would be shoveling right now. Oh well. On to the next episode.

The north edge shifts north 90% of the time at the very end.

Why did you leave?

You're a ray of sunshine

Similar gradient through central PA and NJ with the Feb 5 2010 storm.

It's early December...surface temps (when not yet saturated) are not always the best indicator of the depth of a cold air mass or of the flow at the mid and upper levels which have more to say at determining storm track and snowfall. That said your concern for places south of is on the coastal plain is legit. It's close to mixing if things break 1-2 degrees warmer. But I think dewpoints suggest if they will be ok. Inland on the piedmont and the mountains make no mistake this will be historic for them. Keep in mind a 10"+ storm is historic for places south of DC outside high elevations. A 10" storm in Richmond would immediately jump into 16th place all time. 13" would get into the top 10! A pretty large area of northwest NC and southwestern VA west of the fall line is going to get 10-15" with some localized places pushing 20. That's a rare significant event for that area. I wouldn't dismiss it so readily.