psuhoffman

I agree the core of a good pattern might be later...but we can and have snowed during a +SOI plenty of times so I wouldn't dismiss a specific threat just because it falls during an unfavorable SOI. SOI is just one factor and its more a factor in establishing a long term stable pattern not specific to one event. Without the SOI going negative it will be harder to maintain a consistent trough axis in the east though. Other factors can override it though.

Just to touch on these excellent points... I know this part has been beat to death but it continues to be true... there is a critical mass with the NAO blocking where it flips the pattern. If we get a strong enough and ideally located enough true nao block it changes the rest of the equation in our favor. That forces pieces of the trough in the west to cut under into the east, get stuck in the 50/50 location, and set up confluence to our north. At that point we actually want storms to try to cut. Send all that stj moisture up at us with cold in place and high pressure locked in to our north. Some of our best storms "tried" to cut west of us then got forced east under us by blocking. A trough axis too far west isn't as much a problem IF we have ideal blocking. BUT... it takes ideal blocking. Some ridging in a less that ideal spot and its not enough, the trough out west is able to pump the heights into the east and we get a full latitude ridge and cutter city. The guidance is still split on that but the last 24 hours more members seem to be coming to the "ideal blocking side". The blocking signal on the guidance is pretty good given there is some disagreement. If the divergent camp that lacks good blocking is wrong, as they come off the signal should increase and that is the sign we should look for in future runs to feel confident things are progressing. Last time it was a huge red flag imo that as the blocking progressed from day 15 to 14 to 13 and so on...the anomalies were actually getting weaker not stronger. That was the first sing things weren't going right imo. As for the exact EPO/PNA ridge/trough axis I don't think there is much indication the pac is going to change that drastically. The small changes in those seem to be more an effect of the changes on the Atlantic side not a cause. For instance, if you get a strong west based NAO block it will force the jet to cut under it, that will create an opening in western Canada for the EPO ridge to expand into a bit. But even the runs that slide the epo further east and help, the ridge is still centered off the west coast and its just extending east taking advantage of the opening created by the NAO. Take away that NAO and everything there shifts back to god awful. That is about where I am now. If we actually do get legit hard core NAO blocking...I actually am totally ok with the idea of pac energy crashing into the west. It pretty much eliminates the possibility of cold/dry. Yea it opens the door that things could try to cut but if we have a legit NAO/50/50 pattern I will take my chances with that over a cold dry suppressed look. If the pac throws 5 or 6 waves at us in a 2 week period with blocking I cannot imagine they all cut. Something will probably give us a flush hit in that scenario.

It was because the gfs had one bad op run (which is enough for weenies) and then there were no posts in here for 6 hours so they assumed it was bad. Truth is I was asleep which is rare because I am an insomniac and rarely ever sleep more than 3 hours at a time, Showme never posts until morning, and you and bob took the night off.

Euro bias maybe? We joke but it really does seem to adjust those east a lot.

If I’m fringed what does that make you?

Thanks but I don’t need any sympathy. When your a snarky smart arse you can’t cry when people take swings at you. I think my personality and tendency to go over the top both good and bad has a lot to do with it. I bring it on myself. I took some crap for being “too positive” the last 2 years. Your posts are like my cup of coffee and I bet most here agree. Just don’t let the venting that goes on by a few get to you. If you like analyzing then do it and then ignore them. I’m sure 99% here value it.

That’s the control not the mean

Is this a joke? No...that is a 5 day period not 10 or 15. A 2” mean is significant at that range for that amount of time and the way it’s cenyered over VA like that is another signal. It’s rare to see that past week 2 of the weeklies ever.

It’s very rare to see a snow mean on the climo heavy weeklies past week 2 target the mid Atlantic over places north. If you ignore the snow in the high elevations to the north that plot clearly targets VA over places to the north. Strong storm under the blocking look.

This might not look like much but it’s as strong a signal for a coastal storm as you will ever see at that range.

See my post about the pna. That’s kinda what I had in mind.

I kind of like the idea of a -pna -NAO 50/50 look. Get some west to east juiced up huge coverage systems trying to cut into cold with a blocked in 50/50 with confluence to our north. That sounds like a recipe that can work.

None of those was the threat. That’s after those waves.

At least it starts the epic ness immediately after day 15 this time. I suppose that’s better.

Qbo nino

Im not criticizing those that wanted it this way. I get why. And I can roll with whatever. But this seems more confusing. There is so much crossover between pattern and threat. There can be multiple mini discussions within the discussion. But once a specific threat gets to the point it’s sucking all the air out of the room we just need to start it’s own thread. In the past we waited too long because of the silly “it will kill it” thing. Threads don’t kill snow threats our climo does.

The non lands are warming The pattern under the pattern is pna Nina

They are either finally going to pay of in the most epic delayed but not denied ever...or they are going down with the ship in the biggest tease/bust in history. Bob knows when we will find out for sure.

#epicpattern #itsrealthistime

GEFS is the same but the 12z just had more members come over to the blocky/cold camp. But the meager snowfall on some of those members is really "ice" from some crazy west track that NEVER actually happens and is always in that GEFS skewing the mean high. (why the GEFS is always 2-3" higher than the EPS). But yea...still 2 obvious camps with some NICE eastern trough blocky snow looking members and some huge eastern ridge members. Regarding the "ridge hooking up with the mid latitudes" thing... that is a product of the NAO ridge not being a true cut off block on some members which is what we need. If the NAO is a true block it will force the trough in the west to cut under it. If it's just a weak ridge the trough out west can pump the ridge ahead of it and link the two up into a full latitude ridge. That wont happen if we get a true NAO block.

That event was a "fluke" kind of because it came during a very short window with a favorable look and something just came along at exactly the right time, took the perfect track, maxed potential, and even then half that snow was from some weird inverted trough type deal at the end. But I don't begrudge anyone their snow...I am genuinely happy for them, but I don't expect to continue to get that lucky if a similar pattern persists. I think Philly is having results more in line with the reality of this pattern.

I don't really care where we discuss what. I guess one benefit to this new system is when things are slow and there isn't much weather to talk about we can have conversations about how and in what way we should be discussing the weather.

Yea I don't want to burst anyone's bubble but snowfall can be flukey and when your mean is so low like the DC area...one weird lucky break like that can skew things a lot. I generally don't think its been a great pattern for snowfall, DC just got really lucky. But that is just my opinion which isn't worth much. But I tend to not feel warm and fuzzy at the prospects of staying in the same general pattern and riding it out, I think what is more likely than more "lucky" breaks is the law of averages catches up to us and we have similar results to philly and NYC the rest of the way if the pattern doesn't change.

The prevalence of the STJ and the sheer number of juiced up storms would argue an increased chance of something. IF we ever do get a period with a true NAO block I think the chances of it paying off with some big juiced up snow bomb is higher than normal even for a blocking period. But we need to get the pattern right first before worrying about that much. If the current EPO/WAR pattern persists we wouldnt want a big bomb storm, our best hope for snow in that pattern would be weak waves that dont phase riding along a pressing boundary.

Since that is a specific threat now does it belong in the other thread or here still? Honestly asking because I am not sure.