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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Normally I wouldn’t but right now there is a disconnect between the h5 and the temperatures due to a cold NAM profile, -epo, and the war finally caving allowing confluence. There have been lots of snowy runs with crappy h5 looks. I’m torn on that. Can’t ignore it but it wouldn’t take much adjustment to turn it into a true eastern ridge and cutters. Weaken the NAO and 50/50 just a bit and it goes to hell fast so I get how fragile the setup is. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
18z gefs is a weenie run wrt snowfall -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Wish we could see how the fv3 handles the mjo. I’ll say this looping the gfs op h5 it finally starts to get right with blocking and the pattern day 15/16. Probably because of it’s 10 day loop through phase 6 again it’s a week behind the euro and fv3 at advancing the trough east. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
It’s not that far off from the good runs. It just retrogrades the epo ridge even more and went ape with the west coast trough which pushed the boundary about 200 miles north in the east. Northern PA north gets blasted instead of us. It could go down that way. Or not. We don’t know yet but it wasn’t a wholesale pattern change just shifted some key things slightly the wrong way. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
After we all took a night off I woke up to all those panic posts then looked at the actual guidance and was wtf. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
You nailed all of it so I’m just going to endorse your analysts and see you all at happy hour. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
He often contradicts things he or his partners said at an earlier date to spin a forecast. When he does that he is full of sh!t. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Ok let me translate JB. Stuff he was honest about... *we need the pressures to come up over the maritime continent area and to drop in the central and east pac. If we get that we will likely get the money look we’ve been chasing *his error there is why the cold has been centered northeast of his forecast Stuff he spun *that the mjo/soi WILL go where he says. He has no clue. He has been wrong all winter on that so why now is he so sure? He is just spinning because maybe it will and there is no advantage to him saying maybe it won’t. If his subscribers think it’s over he loses another 1-2 months of subscription fees. * all that BS crap about the winters following a tpv displacement. He is cherry picking 1. And 2 the years that weren’t snowy before the tpv displacement didn’t become snowy after so his analogs actually argue against his snowfall forecast. (Remember he is failing miserably on snow in philly nyc and Boston). And they argue against his temps too because the cold remained centered northwest in those years. None of them went to the southeast trough pattern he is calling for. It’s total and utter crap he is using to just fill up time. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Told ya so -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
I haven’t even looked at the surface but look at h5 progression day 7-10. It has enough block day 7 to get the system to cut under into a 50/50 but it completely kills the NAO day 8-10 and so the 50/50 can escape. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
They are interrelated. It’s hard to have a strong mjo phase 6 if the soi is Negative and vice versa. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
That’s the blocking we need. Breaks it down at the end but we get 3 snows out of it first. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
I tend to agree with that... The GEFS was going nuts into phase 7 a month ago and was wrong and the Euro progression seems more realistic. just saying if guidance in general degrades that period again... that would be an uh oh and I would probably start to believe we are never going to get the true blocking we need this winter. Still wont mean close up shop no chance for snow...but we would be fluke storm hunting not epic pattern hunting from then on out. Many probably are already just fluke storm hunting... since I am still 28" short of climo I am kinda still epic pattern hunting for personal imby reasons. Just don't want to let go of beating climo yet...but its slipping away fast if we dont get into a good pattern soon. I wont nickel and dime my way or one storm fluke my way to climo from where I am now up here. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
I probably should have called the 12z GEFS ambiguous and not garbage. Actually through day 14 its snowier than the last 2 runs. LOL I am not going to waste anymore time on it but I am going to assume given this is what was true the last few runs its getting that conflicting signal through extreme variance within. Some great members with epic snow and some absolute crap members with eastern torch solutions. That would account for the weird looking h5 also..some great blocking members and then some not good ones with a huge eastern ridge. So in the end its a useless "maybe one or the other extreme" run. But it's not really the models fault. Its not THAT crazy far apart its just that one really key factor will have a HUGE affect on the longwave pattern for our specific area and so minor disagreement on that feature (NAO) causes a huge swing in the results within the members. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
I want to be careful how I word this because sometimes I say something is a red flag and people think the sky is falling. This is not the best sign and its something that troubles me, but I am not saying thats it, game over either... BUT 24-36 hours ago the GEFS was really targetting the day 8-10 period for snowfall in our area. I never really bought into it but once again it has shifted that well to the northwest the last few runs as the blocking during that time becomes less ideal. Still not a bad NAO but not good enough to overcome the problems in the PAC. That has been the trend ever since the last pattern change. Everything keeps shifting NW as the blocking looks great at range then becomes only so so in reality. The next "good" window on both the GEFS and EPS looks to be day 10-15. I want to see that NOT start to degrade and shift northwest as it comes into the day 10 range. If in the next 24 hours we start to see the same happen to that period I will start to become convinced we are just getting teased the exact same way we were the last 2/3 times guidance tried to say a -nao driven pattern was on the way. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
If we get a pattern with waves riding along the boundary with the SE ridge my area would likely win compared to DC. That has lead to some pretty big snowfall periods up here. But it can also fail here too if the SE ridge flexes too much and we end up with a cutter pattern. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
It's just one run of the GEFS...waiting for the whole 12z suite, including GEPS and EPS to come in before I make any kind of judgement but I have not yet seen the kind of increase in the NAO anomalies that I want to indicate that confidence is growing in that feature. And we know that is the key feature so that is everything here. And finally... as leads shorten confidence SHOULD be growing. If the anomaly stays the same as leads shorten that is actually a bad sign. Of course the EPS could come out soon with some uber blocking look and the GEPS could concur and then we toss the GEFS. Just saying if the guidance in general keeps only having a pretty weak -NAO signal with lots of divergence as we get closer that is a red flag imo. There have been some runs that speed up the NAO and then lose it right away. In general it has continued to fail to break into the day 10 period. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
It is... I am not making a forecast just stating that this GEFS run was complete garbage. The GEFS has a severe problem with jumping around for an ensemble run to run. I tend to try to take a 24 hour cycle of the GEFS and use it as one ensemble. We have had 2 pretty good GEFS runs, 1 mediocre, and 1 awful in the last 4. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
yea but that is an old run...wait I am sure todays 12z will look like crap -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
yep...and you can do that with EVERY run the last week and the NAO...there is a direct correlation. More blocking, trough into the east...less blocking, trough dumps into the west and eastern ridge. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yea 12z GEFS lost the blocking look and so it goes to complete crap in the long range with western trough eastern ridge. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
That isn't a positive NAO. It looks neutral to maybe slightly negative there. But it's definitely NOT the NAO block we need either. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
LOL... he uses March 93 EVERY time there is any kind of full latitude trough in the east when only 1/10000000 of those will ever turn into some kind of monster storm. It takes way more than just some deep trough to get that result. I have been looking at February 1993 though as an example of a -EPO pattern that was fairly snowly here...VERY snowy up my way, and at least somewhat snowy in the urban area. But it did it with an EPO ridge that was further east and a displaced PV in eastern Canada. But again, if you can get a mechanism to suppress the storms as they come east a -PNA pattern can lead to a parade of storms into cold air. But you have to have some way to prevent cutters. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Haven't seen it yet, might listen on my way home in a bit. JB sometimes throws out a useful nugget, but you have to be able to know when he is in spin mode and full of bleep and what to toss. -
The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion
psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Nice GFS op run, first a wave for the northern 1/2 and then a wave for the southern 1/2 of the forum. Everyone gets some love through day 11.