psuhoffman

If the mjo gets into 8 I expect it will adjust east.

Last comment but I know the guidance has teased this all year. But if the current soi and mjo progression continues I think it’s legit this time.

Retrograde that trough near Alaska a tiny bit more and boom

Baby steps Right as gefs thinks we get to phase 8. If the gfs mjo progression speeds up to match the euro expect this look to come sooner also.

Fv3 develops serious blocking day 15

This is an educated guess but I think there are some background pattern influencers like enso sst that argue for a -NAO. But the mjo has been muting it. The NAO has been mostly neutral to slightly negative. The guidance is not properly calculating the mjo at range.

Was thinking about how I grade winters this morning. We all do it. To me am A is reserved for the truly epic winters. 1987, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014. I might be a tough grader on an A but those are probably the only ones I’ve experienced. I am probably an easier grader on a C “average” or D “bad”. Seems some throw anything worse than good unto the F category. To me an F is reserved for the equally god awful winters like 2002, 2008, 2012... But what about a solid good B winter. I realized there are 3 ways a winter can get into the good category for me. 1. An HECS. I love big storms. I don’t care if it’s a one hit wonder if I get a 20” snowstorm it’s at least a B winter. 2. A string of “good” storms. 3 or more 5”+ snowstorms or two 8”+. When I was in VA that bar was three 3”+ storms or two 6”+. 3. A 10+ day period with solid snowcover and cold or 2 different 7 day periods like that. That was probably more like a 7 day period in VA or two 5 day periods. The final snowfall total isn’t as important as getting one of those 3. I’ve had winters with below my median snowfall that I enjoyed way more than winters I beat median but nickel and dimed my way there and never held snowcover long.

I’m more bullish after the 15th but the fv3 shows how something the 11-15 could work. A little better block here forces that system out west to cut east under it which creates the suppression needed to get the next system under us but it’s delicate and tenuous and that could easily adjust NW without perfect timing and play between those features.

I’m optimistic and I don’t think the gfs has a clue so I don’t care but 12z was a bad run. The front clearing between storms is irrelevant if there is no confluence and the trough axis is west every storm will cut. And they did. The gfs cut 7 systems in a row to our northwest. A few had neussance frozen to start but it was 95% rain. Again I don’t put any weight at all into it. I’m not the least bit bothered by it. But at the same time the 12z gfs wasn’t a good run either.

I’m optimistic for Feb 15 on for the same reason I was pessimistic 2 weeks ago for the Jan 20-feb 10 period. A few weeks ago when a new mjo wave started to initiate into 4 and trend stronger that was an “oh sh!t” moment. The mjo trend all year has been stronger and slow and it’s been a main pattern driver. Bank in early January I said we will be ok “as long as we don’t see the mjo recycle right back into 4”. So when I saw that happen and guidance begin to respond with pattern degradation I couldn’t contradict my own analysis from earlier. Even if it meant going against my seasonal expectations. But here is what I see now. The first mjo wave of the winter season began in phase 1/2 and slowly toured 3/4/5/6/7 then died into 8. The next wave initiated in 4 and went strong through 5/6 and is now dying in 7. The next wave immediately initiates (same as 3 weeks ago) around 6/7 and heads towards 8. Following seasonal tendencies it should progress through at least 8/1 slowly through late February and into Early March. It probably will get into 2/3 before dying sometime in March. And if it dies in phase 1/2/3 we would likely experience lingering positive effects until the next wave initiated strongly unto warm phases. By then we’re talking mid/late March and who cares. Climo slams shut by then around DC and even up here it’s pretty iffy after March 15. So for much the same logic I became a deb around January 20 and dismissed our chances even in the face of some good long range looks, I now think we will likely see a good pattern and snow chances Feb 15 on.

~8” I think. Pretty much nothing since November. My psu meteorology friends that live around nyc are having a pretty rough go of it but they’ve had the most epic run ever lately so I don’t feel too bad for them.

I think he might have been referring to the gefs and geps that show warmth lingering to day 16. I do think if the euro mjo progression is right day 10-16 is likely colder than the American guidance suggests.

@showmethesnow i agree with your analysis of the eps. It looks good day 10-15. What I was referring too was that day 10-12 looked good 48 hours ago and now that it’s day 8-10 looks like crap and the good luck is still stuck day 10-15. You’re right that there were positive trends within that day 10-15 period. I was only pointing out that as of right now the continued trend of the epo dominant pattern to shift the baroclimic zone nw as it gets inside day 10 has continued. But I also think that is going to stop soon. Note the loop back into 6 temporarily on the mjo the next few days. That stall in warm (just like all the other unusual mjo stalls) has been responsible for the latest head fake. But a new mjo wave is initiating in a few days and guidance all takes it into the promised land by day 15 and the trend all year once an mjo wave initiates is stronger and longer so if this repeats with this next mjo wave that looks to starts around 6/7 and head towards 8/1/2 we should have a nice Feb 15-Mar 15 period. As soon as the mjo gets out of destructive phases watch that good look suddenly accelerate towards us in time, maybe even skipping ahead like in early January. So I ageee with 100% of what you said. I was just highlighting why we have yet to see the good 10-15 looks progress but I expect that look to get unstuck and progress towards us very soon. The euro might still be fast with the mjo, all else is 5 days behind, so another 2-3 day delay wouldn’t shock me but within a week I expect to see better looks break inside the day 10 barrier.

Mjo update continues the good signs. Euro by far the best but the cmc, gefs, and cfs all get to phase 8 by day 16. Let’s say a compromise on timing between the euro day 8 and all else day 15 happens...I think sometime around feb 15-18 we actually finally see the long range good looks get unstuck and become reality. The euro monthly suggests the mjo then takes a nice slow tour of cold phases. If so Feb 20-March 15 would be promising. Late season sun angle issues noted.

@showmethesnow @C.A.P.E. This might get ugly for a while but I promise it will end with some hope I agree the gefs is lost right now. Not worth any more discussion. Toss it. I also agree the eps looks good day 11-15. I think the idea of the epo gradient pattern is correct. The issue is what side do we end up on. Yes day 11-15 would indicate we get the boundary south of us but 2 weeks ago when the models did like the 3rd rug pull on the NAO I started tracking day 15-12-10-8 as benchmarks. The looks day 15 continue to consistently degrade. The degradation is most severe between day 12-10. This was day 12 two days ago and day 10 now that has been happening all winter. So until we see the good looks day 11-15 break into day 10 it’s simply not worth anything. Notice the look still is more euro just shifted nw slightly so toss the gefs but the euro idea shifted NW is a cutter rain pattern. This seems mjo related imo. When the mjo was in favorable phases in November and early December we had a great pattern. Then the one time it briefly went into 8 the opposite bust happened and guidance missed the eastern trough from outside day 10. The rest of the time it seems the guidance has trouble seeing or correctly factoring the influence of the mjo past day 10 so we see the guidance continually shift around day 12-10 as it “gets it”. The hope part is right now there is increasing probability the soi and mjo are heading towards favorable in 10-15 days. If/when that happens this is likely to flip suddenly. There is a model vs analogs war right now day 15. Analogs for the expected tropical forcing coming are pretty good. The guidance as a whole is meh. Usually in those situations the analogs win vs long range guidance. That is assuming the tropical forcing does indeed shift but that looks good right now. So I am hopeful. But I won’t say it’s likely to actually be moving closer until we see it break day 10. I am pretty confident the pattern change actually is coming but I’m starting to get nervous it might be too late. The clock is ticking, the earliest I really see it flipping is about the 15th but more likely towards the 20th. We can’t afford to see that become any later than that.

The stj has behaved like a nino to some degree but the northern jet has behaved like a Nina. The conflict is likely due to the conflicting signals. The oni is +.9 which is firmly in weak nino but there are sst anomalies elsewhere that typically don’t accompany a nino and are throwing that off. Then there is the mjo. Dunno how much is cause/effect there but I do know a strong mjo phase 4-7 makes it hard to sustain a trough in the east so we keep seeing either a WAR or SE ridge fight and push the storm track to our NW with amplified systems.

The mystical phase 8.

This is silly. I’m going to try not to be repetitive but there is no reason to just ignore guidance when it’s bad. No one was saying anything about the gefs all day like it was the elephant in the room. Even if we’re going to toss it because it’s crap you still should discuss it and why.

Yea if it’s right winters over. Simple. But I guess I was saying not sure I buy the epo flip. It did that a while ago and it never happened. Definitely not supported by the mjo if it really is heading towards 8. If the gefs looks like that again tonight maybe tomorrow the mjo update will show the gefs shifted to the gem/jma idea of cycling the mjo back into a strong 5/6. That would be a reason it might do that.

The gefs has been degrading the pattern towards crap for several days. Been a slow bleed. At first it was jumpy but now it’s settled on just plain bad. I did see a way it could flip better if it’s epo idea is wrong but other than that our best hope is it’s just wrong. Eps isnt like it so probably is wrong.

A lot of members snow on us day 8-11. But they do it with some jacked tracks. I’m not sure I buy 8” from a primary in Michigan. So I’m kind of eh on that. I honestly keep expecting that to shift nw again just like the last few times this same pattern looked snowy at range. After that as is it’s garbage. But if the gefs is off on the mjo maybe it’s messing up the look in the pacific. The Atlantic is good it’s just god the most awful pac imaginable. +epo/-pna on roids. Just have to hope it’s wrong.

Just kidding. It does look like poo though but I actually can see how it could flip. Decent blocking. Good 50/50. Trough gets east of Hawaii. Problem is it moves the trough over Alaska flipping the epo. If that trough ends up SW of Alaska instead...like the cfs and weeklies and mjo phase 8 analogs say then suddenly the whole thing flips around. The trough in the west undercuts east and it’s all good. So while the gefs looks awful in the east one adjustment would flip it positive.

I wanted to break down the 18z gefs but I decided to only talk about the positives. I looked at the 18z gefs and

I’m just as guilty as anyone so no animosity or hypocrisy here but how bout we all just talk about the weather and stop talking about how to talk about weather!

@Ji@Bob Chill great points. I debated not saying any of this but screw it...it’s not inherently negative, it looks at both sides so if some freak out because it’s not all roses so be it. I agree Bob wrt this eps run day 10-15. It’s a good look. The key is the lower heights over the west Atlantic. That’s (50/50) actually out top correlation to snow, even more than the NAO. It’s just usually the NAO is the function to get that look. But assuming it’s 50/50 lower heights are correct the degradation of the blocking anomalies aren’t as big a deal. I will preface what I’m about to say with the fact that I see signs this might change soon and I’ll explain why but one red flag keeps repeating. The looks day 11-15 degrade before they become 6-10 days. It’s even worse on the gefs but that’s been a jumpy mess so just looking at the euro look how in just the last couple days a look outside day 10 degraded when it got inside day 10. became and became I don’t want to make too much of this. It’s slight. It was a bit more pronounced if you go back to when it was day 15 but I don’t have it saved. A little less blocking and the SE ridge is less muted and we we end up on the wrong side. This is day 6-9. We still look good 11-15 but 6-9 looked good when it was 11-15 too. On top of that we have had several attempts at a snowy epo gradient pattern the last few years that looked good from day 10-15 become rainy. Early last Feb sticks out and so does 2 weeks ago lol. So call me skeptical right now. But...skeptical doesn’t mean I don’t think it could work but I think the key is the mjo. The two times it went into cold phases we got a trough into the east. One of those times suddenly. When it’s been in warm phases the good looks have been continually muted some as they approach. I think this latest mjo stall (also a repetitive issue) has caused this fake out again. To sum it up I think if we ever get the mjo into phase 8/1/2 we will get the good look to move into reality and possibly suddenly like 3 weeks ago, but if the mjo continues to confound and stay in crap phases we will likely continue to see the cold shift northwest as leads shorten. Right now guidance is trending towards the mjo getting to 8 in 11-16 days. That’s a good sign. Hopefully this doesn’t cause freak outs but I didn’t know a gentler way to say it.