psuhoffman

Wrt Furtado keep in mind if you drill down too specific you become susceptible to limited data set and anomalies skewing results. Plus the more specific you make the analog the more chance it’s wrong because one little thing is off. How many examples of strong phase 8 in a weak nino after a sswe can there possibly be? And it’s racong towards 1 anyways so what does 1 do? Is it just delayed 5 days? What about once it’s past midway through 8? He said 7/8. 6/7 is totally Different from 7/8 for instance. I’m not dismissing his research but these are all pertinent questions we don’t have answers too. For now I’ll table that in the back of my mind but I can’t do much with it without more info.

I’ve always liked Ji though. His act can be over the top sometimes but he is funny and when he wants to be serious makes great contributions.

Maybe it finally got a whiff of the mjo/soi

It’s two different conversations AND the gefs wasn’t too thrilled with that 6-10 period. That was what we were analyzing. Last nights eps wasn’t too thrilled either. Fv3 and euro op obviously like it. We will see. I poo pood the period then the euro says let it snow. I’ll be wrong with snow over right as rain any day.

Ok that’s new...and maybe why the guidance is not responding until the mjo is practically into phase 1. But I’ve not seen or heard anything so far about that until now. Oddly it seems the sswe has done nothing for us and might be hurting. Lol. Another confusing thing is how some Mets are talking about the nino like it’s a bad thing. This isn’t a strong nino like 73/98/16 that overwhelms with warmth. So not sure why several times I’ve hear the “nino” blames for the warmth and SE ridge. Neither is a typical weak to moderate nino feature. As for Furtado’s claim about the weak strat and mjo phase 8 can’t add anything. Haven’t seen anything about that until now. But that would be frustrating if we have to wait for phase 1.

It is and it pays off later, by day 13 the pressure patterns actually look better and by 15-16 really good. But the day 7-12 period that had promise a few days ago looks like a straight cutter pattern to me right now (on the gefs). High pressure moves out well in front and mean low pressure is well NW of us for each of the 3 waves in that period. after that gefs does have a strong signal for a wave under us day 15 but that’s so far out. Timing does fit with the mjo progression though.

12z gefs is really really really ugly through Feb 18. There is nothing worth analyzing. Trough axis way too far west. Not even close. Cutter after cutter after cutter. At the end we start to see the response to the mjo and the pattern looks to be getting better around Feb 19-20. I could see that speed up a little if the euro mjo speed is right although if the mjo gets to 8 around the 14-15th the 20th isn’t an unrealistic date to see a downstream response over NAM. I’m still optimistic about Feb 20 into March, and I am undecided about Feb 15-20th, but I think before Feb 15 is slipping away.

Punting no. But it’s 3rd and ten and my QB has looked like Goff last night. The AO is going positive. Right now guidance is shifting the trough axis west which is the seasonal trend and it’s not super long range. The mjo probably won’t have an impact until after this day 7-13 wave train. History suggests these type patterns fail 75% of the time. Could this be the 25% maybe but the epo seems centered west of where it was in years this worked for DC. Your success rate on this type pattern is more like 50/50 btw. You have a better chance than DC. If I was north of 78 in PA I would be stoked with this look. So I’m not saying no chance but I’m not holding my breath

Here comes the sun angle brigade. In fairness the snow climo differences become even more extreme after March 5 in this sub. March 5-20 is still pretty snow friendly NW of the fall line but becomes pretty hostile on the coastal plain so the deb posts from places there are understandable.

Some truth to that BUT your big storm was a good pattern. The analogs suggested a big storm threat there. It just wasn’t a very long lasting pattern. Mjo went right back unti phase 4. But for one week the pattern actually was good. If I was at ~35” with a 10”+ storm in the mix which is equivalent to your 22/23 wrt climo I would be happy regardless of the pattern. Pattern is a means to an end. Models seem to be keying on the enso sst (oni +.9) and thinking modoki nino pattern and not factoring the mjo correctly at range. That seems the most likely cause here. In fairness 90% of the met community did the same thing when making a seasonal forecast so it’s kinda not fair to beat them up too much. They are only as good as the programmers and we are a long ways from understanding this completely.

Aren’t you at like 20” on the year? Lol

@frd @C.A.P.E. @showmethesnow @Bob Chill @Ji Gonna try to keep this brief. I think guidance is way off. Those pressure and convection charts I posted do not jive with guidance. And that look is universal. Mjo updated and everything gets it into an amplified 8 by day 15. Euro by day 9. The mjo been driving this bus all year. There are other influences like the pv displacement from the sswe but we saw how the mjo was able to mute and influence the implant of that towards the expected mjo pattern. It doesn’t always match exactly but when it’s at strong amplitude it pulls things in that direction. The models have been messing that up at range all winter. I’m simply applying the same trends here. The mjo is trending more amplified and that fits seasonal trends. This comes down to 3 things. 1. I do believe the mjo goes strong into 8/1/2. 2. The soi is about to crash 3. I don’t believe we sit under a pig SE ridge during a strong mjo 8/1/2 during a -soi Right now I’m leaning on those 3 things. There is a first for everything but I’m betting against a huge eastern ridge with those facts. The one issue is we might have to wait. There is a lag time sometimes and if we take a compromise mjo speed we get into 8 around day 10-11. It might be day 15 before we feel the effect. Time is getting short here so any delay is bad at this point but it is what it is. Before that I am less enthused at this gradient pattern coming. For everytime we get a 2014 or 2015 there are 3 examples where it didn’t work. They tend to shift north and end up wet more than white here. 2014 and 2015 had an ideal epo ridge AND ideal tpv displacement. We have neither this time on progs. The AO is about to go positive. That seems almost certain. We would need something to adjust. Either better NAO or crazy NAO 50/50 or epo shift. It could shift in our favor but it’s getting into medium range soon and it’s bleeding the wrong way (as usual). We tried a similar look last February, Jan/feb 2009, a period late feb into March 2006, much of late 2001, 1994, 1993...it’s usually congrats central PA north. I’d be very excited if I still lived in Pine Grove or Hazleton PA. Here it’s usually some Minor snow on the front end washed away by rain. 1994 was weird with the ice that’s not typical. So I’m not saying this can’t work. It can. It has. But history suggests it fails 75% of the time so I’m not going to get my hopes up. But after this I do think the guidance is flat wrong and we see a better pattern develop, just maybe a week later than we want.

But why is the question. Hopefully a blip This doesn’t add up. Extremely -soi. Forcing east of dateline. Without other hostile influences this should be an eastern trough look.

But why is the question. Hopefully a blip I don’t know. Maybe we will find out when the mjo updates. If it degraded that it would explain some of this. I think the Uber long range is wrong but in the medium range it flips the AO positive and anything before Feb 15 at least and more likely the 20th might be toast.

The whole 0z suite was a hot steaming pile of poo. No way to polish any of it. Just hope it’s wrong.

Not 72? Pfft NEXT.

Lol I’m not actually worried about that. But we need to be close to the gradient in that pattern or it’s cold and dry. The euro is a little too close. Shift it east a bit and reality might be perfect.

I went with an above avg snowfall winter but when I saw the mjo initiating another wave into phase 4 a few weeks ago I knew it was trouble and we would lose a big chunk of prime climo. But I’m optimistic we get a favorable period Feb 15 into mid March. The mjo has been in the drivers seat all winter. The first wave cycled from phase 1/2 slowly and strongly through to 8 then died. The next wave went from 4 and is dying now in 7. This next wave initiated around 6/7 and heads for 8. The soi looks like it’s going negative also. Given the seasonal trend for amplified slow mjo progression we should see a favorable wave phase from about Feb 15/20 on. If the wave dies in cold phases the pattern could linger until another wave gets into warm phases. I suspect just like most of winter the guidance has underestimated the mjo impact and had to adjust causing degradation of the good long range looks this time we will see guidance trend more favorable as this shift in tropical pac forcing takes place.

The GEPS? Lol. It scores lower than climo.

I think my target period is a little after his but either way same result. More snow.

Yea take 10 degrees off during a storm Lol

Slightly below is fine if we get a system to run under us. That mean high is skewed by sunny days and disagreement on timing of precip at range. 40 degrees and sunny with a dp of 23 can become 30 and snowing fast.

Keep in mind a slight positive 850 anomaly is still cold enough since average 850 this time of year is well below 0. We are below 0c 850 from day 9 on. It gets close around day 13 then sinks south again. It was a good run. I was just saying I think the se ridge won’t be an issue if we get phase 8. That might not be a good thing. Shift the too Far East and it’s suppression depression.

Yea I wasn’t trying to imply the eps was bad..but it was close. I have a feeling of the mjo gets to 8 in reality the trough axis shifts east some.

It does but it’s only about a 48 hour period then the SE ridge flexes a bit again. But as I told @Ji the guidance has had to adjust the pattern to the mjo all season. 90% of the time that’s worked against us. This time that adjustment should shift the trough axis east some imo.