psuhoffman

Looking at the individual members, there is agreement on a big cutter day 9-11 and then most of the members that cause the "trough" look in the east after that are just cold and dry with a big high parked over the east. There are some wet members...but they differ on things and take another cutter over after that. There really is no support among either camp for a frozen event despite the h5 look. Its split between cold/dry and warm/wet.

Ideally that is how it works...creating a feedback loop in our favor.

sooner or later the wave train of 50/50's has to pay off!!! We only need a couple good hits to make a winter here.

BWI: 20.4 DCA: 15.7 IAD: 23.6 RIC: 14.9 SBY: 12.2

The rest of the winter will be so bad they will record a negative number.

BWI: 0.3" DCA: 0.1" IAD: 0.7" RIC: 0.00001

Try the long range thread

About avg in most places but it all came from a storm in November and then a weird late February rain to snow storm that was all gone a day later. In between it was a barren wasteland for snow. I doubt many would enjoy a repeat of that. Even I would come away somewhat disappointed by that despite “decent” numbers on paper.

What if there is no tomorrow? There wasn’t one today!

I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be dark and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life.

Run flee scurry

No I was in PA that year.

They aren’t perfect but guidance often shifts towards them when they disagree. In the case a compromise was best.

I’ve had storms where I got 10+ and DC ~2”. I can’t remember one where I got 10+ and as close as where got 10” today got that little. I’m sure he’s happened but not recently.

You got double me so...lol. It was a bad weekend. Fringed. Eagles tough loss. This was one of the worst gradients I can remember with 10” about 30 miles south of me and 2.5” here. Oh well. This will be one to just forget and move on to the epic pattern ahead. I feel happy for the DC area though. This should raise spirits in here at least. DC is one more decent storm away from beating climo now.

How did you do?

No the one on 30 north of Hampstead

This storm is trolling me. After the banding set up just south of me last night the latest band is like 2 miles south of me and stuck. It seems that’s the furthest north it can get. Just went down to Walmart 3 miles south and it’s puking snow. Just flurries at my house.

2.5”

Looks like round 2 wants to fringe me too. Guess the snow gods are making up for lost time. Guess I should have taken the fringe risk more seriously. Just assumed it would pull the last minute north bump to save me as usual.

Lol I’ll survive. Bring fringed here is rare because with upslope from the 1000 ft ridges we get higher ratios and usually a mini qpf max so even if I was “fringed” at the synoptic level at the meso level I can take what would have been .15 qpf and bump it to .25 with upslope then go 20-1 ratio and boom 5”. That’s what happens a lot. But that all falls apart if I don’t get into good enough lift to get the ball rolling. This time the fringe was real because the northern most band set up just to my south and I was stuck in the subsidence of that a lot. I think some places north of me did slightly better from the modest waa wave but I might have been hurt by the sinking around that band that dropped 4-5” just to my south.

Brisk

5 or 6 from what I hear Wanna trade?

Don’t you have 5” otg?

Most guidance has today mainly south of us northerners...nws upped us to 4-6 yesterday which right now looks like a very minor bust. We will see. But he is negative so he will make the 1” bust into a big deal. Still it’s slightly a bummer to be somewhat left out. My bar always seems to be 4”. That feels like a significant snow to me. Didn’t make it this time. Banding stayed about 5 miles south all night.