psuhoffman

Surface is, the h5 progression looks more typical of a New England big storm so I’m hesitant to jump in. We can sometimes do good with that setup but I’m always looking for the north trend when I see that.

I don’t root against the DC teams unless they are playing philly. I don’t like people around me being miserable and I lived around DC for many years. But imo you just have some really awful owners. I know what that looks like, for a long time philly had god awful owners of most of our teams. Coaches, players, general managers would change year after year but the same crap would keep happening. And yea there was bad luck along the way but after seeing a Phillies run where they won some years despite bad luck and seeing an Eagles super bowl in a year we lost multiple key starters...I realized luck evens out but bad owners can’t be overcome. I know you know this..and I feel bad for redskins and Wizards fans. I would feel a lot better about the next threat if we could get other guidance on board. Often when there is such a split a compromise works but a Compton here is no good for us. Even the euro has been too far southeast with some of these waves lately so I’m not getting excited until I see evidence this won’t become another cutter that looked good from range.

Euro showing consistency in the face of American guidance. There were some hits in the gefs but overall the gefs was a shotgun of everything indicating the gfs has no clue what’s going on.

It’s like a big 3 dimensional puzzle with missing pieces. But it’s a fun mental challenge. I do buy the mjo influence. There is a lot of objective evidence. It’s not a 1:1 like you said but if you take the look day 15, factor in major features caused by other factors like the tpv displacement last week from the sswe, then combine those with the mjo phase everything was shifted towards the mjo analogs. Not all the way. Not 1:1 but the affect seemed obvious. It even worked the other way the one time the mjo got into 8. It also makes sense given the mjo amplitude. A weak mjo wave often can be muted by other influences. But when the mjo is amplified and the other factors like enso are weak signals it overwhelms. So I’m admitting total and complete bustage. My call was awful. And saying it was the mjo isn’t an excuse because the mjo was part of my forecast and I screwed that up. I said back in December I expected either a muted mjo or for it to spend most of the time in cold phases. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Imo the mjo’s usefulness as a predictor depends on the situation. When the mjo is low amplitude or is deamplifying or there are conflicting waves...it’s useless beyond a few days. But when it’s in the process of amplifying and there is a strong signal then it usually is somewhat reliable to day 7-10 and since there is a lag time that makes it useful in a 10-15 day (or slightly beyond) forecast. So just like all the other factors we use it’s hwlpful under the right circumstances and useless at other times. I think right now is a useful time. There has been a clear mjo tendency this year. This next wave is initiating now and gets amplified into phase 8 on all guidance soon and that fits the seasonal trend of more amplified waves. Doesn’t mean it can’t bust but right now it seems a fairly safe bet as far as long range bets go.

Fv3 goes north then misses us south with the next wave. Lol

It’s south with the wave ejecting from the Rockies but also faster which is good.

It was a perfect h5 track with an arctic 1048 high in the way. Wasn’t much of a surface system until it kind of went boom at the coast. Had a weak low west that transferred. Hybrid a/b. Came on the end of a cold period and warmed after with a big rainstorm like 2 days layer.

No euro mjo update today

Much less epo blocking which doesn’t press the western trough east as much so the eastern ridge goes ape and everything cuts 500 miles west of us.

It’s been talked about forever by actual Mets doing real forecasting. The terminology changes but identifying the location and amplitude of tropical forcing has always been the number one key to long range forecasts. Why do you think enso is so important. Enso effects the soi which is interrelated with the mjo. It’s all about where heat is being added to the mid latitude equation and how that impacts the longwave pattern.

He said Cape May to be exact which is at the same latitude as DC and impressive to pin as an exact rain snow line for every storm in the next 6 weeks...

Thanks. There used to be a site that had them saved by enso. Can’t find it. Maybe it’s gone. How do you set those plots by mjo? I don’t see it as an option.

I’m still looking at guidance because habit but I’m simplifying my expectations and optimism to the fact the soi is about to crash and the mjo is going to cold phases at high amplitude. If that doesn’t work out oh well but history says it will.

Thanks. Do you have the link to that site?

Euro monthly updated though for some reason. Looks ok

Lol today's didn’t update yet

Anyone have the link to h5 composites for the mjo by enso? Lost them when I switched phones. Thanks

Euro ain’t no slouch either. Love how it’s amolify into 1.

That’s why the gefs looks good at the end.

I think he was saying if it trends towards more amplified northern jet. Not that it’s going to or is there.

I agree with Don. Like we were talking about before in long range models keep going to the enso sst analog look and missing the mjo influence muting that. If the mjo finally cooperates the look should finally come.

That and everything is the most extreme example of a somewhat similar pattern. Every -epo is 1994. Every -NAO is 2010. Every full latitude trough is 1993.

So you ignored all the posts about the day 7 threat?

Can’t blast him too hard for the forecast. It wasn’t that out of line with my own or most others. He somehow still went more cold in a year everyone was going cold but that’s JB. But his spin and stubbornness and unwillingness to adjust on the fly are inexcusable. Ironically buckeye pointed out that some of the crap people take in here for posting negative stuff might be why he simply always spins positive snow weenie stuff. Even if your right no one is happy with you for bursting their bubble.

Looking at mslp anomalies on the eps and gefs the soi looks to go solidly negative by day 6 then really tank by day 10 through 15.