psuhoffman

Watch the EPS get on board now after the worse op run in days. lol

kinda... there is SOME frozen so it's not a total fail but.... all this gets washed away by rain immediately after also. Maybe this is just me, but it kind of ruins the event for me if it ends without anything on the ground.

Euro is a little bit of light mix followed by a big ole cutter rainstorm. Not as bad as the GFS but the result is the same.

-pna is a trough, good luck with that

less confluence and whole thermal profile is shifted a decent bit north at 120 on the euro. Too early to say yet but that is not a good sign imo.

snowstorm54324320947321097439 messaged me to say e8 is the most accurate gefs member

I loved everything about the GEFS run, start to finish. There is almost no way everything day 5-16 will be snow, if it is we will end up with 50". But if we can get the boundary south enough that just 1/3 of it is snow...and enough of the rest is ice/mix to keep some on the ground...I will call that a win. I know its further out there but the look day 10-16 is really getting my attention. The epo shifting east along with that 50/50 look...yesterday we agreed all we need is SOME nao help to shift that into a great pattern and today there are signs we might get exactly that. I know its way out there in range the guidance has sucked BUT this time the tropical forcing supports such a look and guidance is starting to shift towards that and not away from it so maybe it has some legitimacy this time. As for your son, congrats, that is great! He is well on his way.

don't worry the pattern between the patterns says nina. Sun is hot.

some big hits in the gefs

GEFS is a straight weenie of all weenie runs. Start to finish... Bob hit on the improvements day 5 but in the long range it shifts the EPO ridge into NW Canada (where we want it) and has one of the stronger 50/50 signals you will ever see past 10 days. Just enough nao ridging. Again our number 1 correlation to big snowstorms is the lower heights in the 50/50 space. That is an even bigger correlation to big snow here than the NAO or AO or EPO. Actually, the whole reason we want a -NAO is to get the 50/50 since typically a ridge over greenland will promote getting systems stuck under it in the 50/50 space. But the 50/50 is the actual feature we really want to get a big snowstorm. This is a straight great look...and it gets good well before this too. Guidance responding to tropical forcing maybe...

People = Ji in fairness it looked like it was going to be a big hit, then it bombed and cut the low inland right over DC and flipped to rain. It reminded me a little of the early march storm in 1994 that run.

I suppose that is acceptable

Sounds right...I’m just keeping my expectations low so as not to get let down.

There are multiple ways to work. The easiest is more energy sooner. Even if the lead wave fails you want it to lower heights to our southeast as much as possible to create a weakness for the next wave to be drawn towards. Additionally it limits the energy held back that could over amp the second wave to our west. The trough axis is not good so we don’t want something going nuts out west. More energy early is better because the cold is in place with confluence. The longer something waits to get organized the more chance it departs. If too much energy holds back it likely cuts. A nice even split and we could end up with the fv3 coastal bomb idea. The way you get that is enough wave 1 to lower heights and promote high pressure hanging back over the top then the second wave phases into that weakness along the coast under the high. There are a lot of moving parts but the worst case scenario is too much energy holding back too long.

Lol I was on his side wrt his fears. I wasn’t implying I was against you. Sorry.

A stronger lead wave will also promote the high hanging back to the north due to the return flow it creates and it lowers heights enough along the coast to help pull the second system in. Not enough lead wave and the second system is stronger with no height fall in the east to pull it towards and so it’s more likely to cut.

Because with this pattern (-epo -pna se ridge, cold high on top) the trough axis is way west of us. It can work if a healthy system ejects into the high. Unfortunately what happens more often is most of the energy hangs back with the main trough in the west, whatever weak energy ejects slides east under the high and can’t gain any latitude so stays south of us...(if the cold wasn’t pressing south of us we wouldn’t even be seeing this as a threat window) and then the main energy comes out once the confluence relaxes allowing it to amplify to our west. This is how this setup usually goes. Not always. It can work. But this is the typical fail look on that run.

I’m not declaring anything dead. But I’ve also never jumped on this because these epo se ridge gradient type patterns shift north 75% of the time. We can snow that way but more often it ends up breaking our hearts. I’m just playing the odds.

You were right. I was on your side.

lol Worse than icon

I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours.

I don’t like how it looks at 144 at all. Weak pos lead wave. Way too much ridging developing in front of the main wave holding back.

It’s early but this run looks too close to my nightmare fail scenario I outlined earlier this morning. A weak lead wave with a delayed stronger second ejection is playing with fire in this setup imo.

Suppression is not high on my list of concerns given the current pattern look

@C.A.P.E. We were following the CFS a while ago. Might have the best look yet today. IF...big IF...this is how the rest of winter plays out we could have a nice ending. Week 3 Enough blocking/50-50 week 3 to suppress the boundary south of us...that is a perfect look for west to east waves to track just under us. Then we finish with a classic -NAO/+PNA look into spring