psuhoffman

I don’t care what thread it goes in so long as it ends up on my lawn!

He is baiting you

Got cold?

Don’t feed them

Unfortunately the dumb angle guarantees we will have to talk about the sun angle every year!

I could live with that.

My weenie handbook says you hug it.

I agree I was just giving you a hard time.

I had big depression after March 2001. About a month That was a rough one for me too. I was recovering from a bad ski accident I suffered in January that year. Had to take a semester off from school for it and so I couldn’t plan a ski trip to cope which is my typical MO. Sucked to end an already sucky year that way.

Yep...thus the hecs hunter suit. But 1993 storms are rare....I don't remember any great storms between feb 20 and 28. And early March reminds me of heartbreaks like March 2001 I think leesburg had back to back 8”+ storms in March 99. We’ve had lots of moderate storms in March lately. Have to go back to the 60s and 50s to see true HECS storms. But things are cyclical. Maybe if the -NAO is coming back so are March storms.

3 hours ago called to say it wants it’s news back.

Maybe. I believe it. All year the mjo and soi have dumped on us. Last time I got pessimistic mid January it was because the soi and mjo had looked good day 10-15 and was going to crap again. Then the pattern started to degrade. This time the soi and mjo are trending better in the short range and the pattern is responding. But I took crap for debbing a couple weeks ago on late Jan and early February. I’m honestly fully on board with the potential Feb 20 to March 10...maybe longer.

No. Day 15 and would degrade by day 10. This is going the other way.

Yes...but I also think that look day 10-15 is good. Day 10 starts with a lot of cold in place. The se ridge is muted. That blocking and 50/50 look suggests waves won’t cut. That’s a better overrunning wave setup. I think the se ridge is likely skewed by some members that go crazy with it. Watch the eps continue to adjust that trough axis east some future runs. After that if we transition to a split flow with the pac jet undercutting that becomes a hecs look week 3-4 imo.

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range. Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look. Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10.

Yes...game on!!!

Cfs got even better today lol

Very reasonable

Don’t want to kill anyone’s happiness. Lol. But we’re in different places I think. We’re entering the 4th quarter but your up by 7 and I’m down by 14 wrt climo so settling for a fg is different for me. I suck at analogies...sorry. Im very optimistic we see another warning event this year. Maybe more than one. Just not sure this is going to be one of them.

You are probably kidding but I am not...if these day 10 looks are even remotely close than an epic pattern is coming day 10+. crashing soi I will take that look day 10 and roll with it So the op euro is an example of how next week could fail...and I kind of think that's how it "might" go down but I am confident we will have more chances and better ones after. NOT saying next week will fail... but if it does I think a better pattern is on the way with the trough axis shifting east.

don't worry it has another cutter rainstorm a couple days later

The 850 only pushes south for a short period then retreats...barely gets much south of you at all...there is probably a very limited window of pure snow and low ratio at that. It's a little far out to pick apart details like that. But you were upset about the 0z run last night when it started in this direction...this run took another step and now you are ok with it?

lol I know you would...and good for you, seriously. But I was talking to Ji...and we both know the answer

Yea... some might appreciate that and who I am to deb on that. If some are happy to get a little taste of winter before another drenching rainstorm that is great... and they should enjoy it. But this run is 90% rain and kind of a bummer after several euro runs in a row with a big snow event. I am not surprised, not upset, not even disappointed. This exact run is kind of what I have expected from this type of setup, and why I haven't let myself get excited yet. A little bit of frozen to a lot of rain is kind of the climo favored outcome here. But we have already beat the odds a few times this year so why not again maybe.

I am totally on board with the long range looks. I think something good is coming. But verbatim the euro is 1-3" of snow to a few hours of ice, followed by a CRAP ton of rain...that would immediately wash any trace of frozen off the ground. Would you really be happy with that? Really? Be honest with yourself.