psuhoffman

You're looking at the old run, it has a cutter way up into canada this run.

thanks

I liked the structural changes on the euro...it sucked wrt ground truth because it had a weird precip representation with dry slots all over the place and we got stuck under one. But the representation and evolution is closer to what can give us a good snow than last night or yesterday was.

JB says we go from Feb 94 to Feb 2010 lol There are some similarities to both "SOME" and I am very on board with the potential...but its just amazing that every pattern he uses the absolute most extreme example He jumped the shark years ago when he forecasted some 1" frontal snows and literally said "but it might be the worst 1" snow ever".

e12 thinks we both get 40"+ in the next 2 weeks.

The trends in the models are predictable given the pacific. We watched the same/inverse trends all winter when the pac forcing was destructive...now it is constructive and we are seeing the positive influence, equally under-estimated by guidance at range.

Where do you get those mjo h5 analogs from?

look at the little lobe rotating down around the 50/50 at just the right time to add a little extra confluence and suppress the flow a bit. Maybe one of these works in our favor this time.

It's all about the blocking...get that epo/nao ridge connection across the top along with the 50/50 and it will promote high pressure across southern Canada and the northern CONUS and they will be locked in by the 50/50. Regardless of the se ridge storms will be forced west to east under the blocking.

I'm listening...

I don't laugh at that... I don't understand the cause/effect relationship well enough to add much but I don't laugh at things I don't understand. As far as the blocking... we are due for another -NAO period. We had a period of blocking in the late 1800s and again around the middle of the last century and we are due for another. If/when that happens some of the assumptions about certain other influences will change. For instance, a nina wasn't necessarily a bad thing during the -nao periods. We have had some pretty good nina winters when the nao was negative.

yes sorry will fix now

The GFS op might be the weeniest run of the year, wave after wave west to east under us with 1040 high pressures to our north... and it highlights how the day 10 eastern ridge might not even be a problem. Yea there are higher heights in the east because of the -PNA but look at the blocking up top and the 50/50, nothing is cutting in that pattern and it leads to this...we will overcome a -PNA with that pattern up top. Actually with that pattern up top we WANT a -PNA or else it would be congrats Jacksonville. As for SE ridge, look at the h5 heights But look at the surface the same time This is why the snow means jump day 10-15 on the GEFS and EPS even though we are under a ridge. If that look up top is correct storms will be forced under us as there will be a parade of high pressure blocked across the north.

It could be, the failure of it to develop into a significant event this year increases the threat of a nino next year. So long as it's not a super nino that would be great. There are no signs right now of a super nino. USUALLY there are some hints of that by now...not always, enso guidance is very unreliable for the following winter until the summer in general...but right now the ambiguous signal would favor a weak to moderate enso event next year if there is one at all in either direction. If it goes weak to moderate nina I am riding the -NAO and Solar signal to the 1996 analog all the way. As I have said previously, if we do get a -NAO during a nina it actually works just fine. The problem is our chances of a -nao seem lower in nina years...the amplified northern jet destructively interferes with blocking typically, AND out chances of snow SUCK without blocking in a nina.

If other guidance can shift towards the GFS/FV3 idea of the secondary being more dominant I would be happy. I will take less snow (say 4" vs 6") if we could get some low level cold air to hold due to a secondary and finish with some snow otg. There is a big difference between a thump snow to dryslot and 33 degree drizzle (miller b solution) and the same amount of snow to a 12 hour driving 48 degree rainstorm imo. I know some don't care about that difference but I do. I don't need snow to stick around forever...but at least long enough to enjoy it for a couple days.

I think this fallacy is due to 2 things... 1. We don't usually track the details on a rainstorm. There is a HUGE areal coverage of rain in any system, but a fairly small area of snow. We only care about the snow. We can be 50 miles or 500 miles from the rain snow line and it makes no difference to us. We also don't notice when our qpf goes from 1.25 to .75 or from .75 to .5 in the rainfall area. We stop following it closely once we are out of the game for snow and so we simply assume...rain is rain and it never changes but it does. 2. There was a time when outside of 48 hours systems were MUCH more likely to trend north than south. That time is gone. Inside 48 hours they still mostly trend north. But outside 48 hours systems are just as likely to trend south as north now. We have had several snowstorms the last 5 years that were supposed to go north of us at day 5. The December storm trended south between day 3-6. The January storm was rain at day 7+. The anafront wave last week trended southeast from range. It happens a lot now but I think the thought that north is more likely than south persists even though that bias in the guidance has been corrected.

If we can get it east of the dateline (as it seems to be heading there) it would be a good thing. One thing I continue to see and that just confounds me, is this implication that we need something to mute the nino signal. First of all it's been muted all season. Second, a weak to moderate basin wide or central nino is NOT a hostile signal for eastern CONUS cold. I thought we were past the time when people just plastered the super nino climo onto every +enso.

No... I am skeptical of that temporary dip on the eps mjo. BUT...even if its real so long as its not the start of the permanent wave de-amplification we would be ok. I was just pointing out that it is not a coincidence that when the EPS goes into phase 8 the trough gets into the east...then the mjo wave dies for 3/4 days and the trough retrogrades into the west...then the MJO wave spikes into Phase 1 and suddenly the NAO tanks and the trough shifts east. The other guidance takes the MJO into phase 7 instead of 8 day 6-10 and so it keeps the trough axis further west during that time. It's pretty apparent that the MJO is still driving the pattern here, or in this case, driving the models interpretation of it.

H5 changes are good..less energy holding back, more emphasis on the lead wave the goes under us, but the high is worse, weaker and further north so that might offset some of the positives.

Start of the SOI crash looks to be 3 days away. Tropical convection looks to align perfectly in the central pac starting in a few days as well. Everything is still progressing. We are crossing inside the time period where it evaporated the last time this SOI/MJO look was showing up in mid January. I am not sure that dip in the MJO on the euro is real... it may be, but as long as it is only temporary and the wave progresses into 1 after we will be good. But none of the other guidance has a deamplification there so I am not even confident its real.

LOL at how the MJO is still the driver here... The GEFS looks less favorable day 6-9 because it keeps the MJO is phase 7. The Euro gets into 8 and looks better. Then the Euro crashes the MJO for a couple days and that is exactly when the SE ridge pops back up...before the MJO goes into 1 and the trough starts to shift east again at the same time.

Before I open this can of whoop a$$ let me first say I appreciate your input so don't take this the wrong way but..... Why are you comparing the day 10 EPS to the day 16 GFS? Why are you cherry picking the one very brief period where the WAR pops up as a transient period on the EPS? Its gone again soon after and by day 15 there is a monster 50/50 signal again Some people can have more than one train of thought at the same time. It's possible to discuss both the threats within the next 10 days AND the period after 10 days. One does not necessary detract from the other. There are many times (90%) when your snow climo isnt THAT far off from most of this sub. HOWEVER, a -EPO/-PNA pattern with no blocking is NOT one of them. Your chances the next 10 days are significantly better according to climo than most of this sub. You can win with that look...its much harder for DC to win with a SE ridge without NAO blocking...so maybe there is a regional reason some on here are "looking" ahead to a possible period of better blocking. Places south and east of DC are very unlikely to score a significant snowstorm in a -PNA without blocking. This is the EPS day 15 which is a more fair comp to the GFS day 16 panel you were comparing it too .... which the guidance has been trending towards for a while now...and I suspect that SE ridge will continue to get muted more and more if the NAO look is correct (all guidance trending towards that) and the soi/mjo signal is correct. There is absolutely no basis for a strong SE ridge if we have a -soi, phase 8/1 MJO, and a -NAO/EPO. The weather never ceases to amaze me so anything is possible but if those other signals are correct the boundary will end up south of us in that pattern. None of that means we cannot score before that. The threats next week have my attention, especially the one towards next weekend. BUT... for those of us south of you the more blocking we get, the further south we can drive the boundary, the better our chances to score. This week has opportunity but its flawed and history suggests we end up on the wrong side most of the time in this type of pattern. Add nao blocking and suddenly history suggest we win. Those are just the probabilities based on climo and analogs.

Normally I would agree...but in this case we would get the waa thump anyways and the precip from the primary is rain. Our only hope to end with snow otg is a miller b progression. Thump to dry slot and hold some low level cold air in. I know you don’t care about that but i do. It looks like a cold period coming up and it’s not too late for us to get a prolonged period of snow otg. Especially up here, I’ve had 7+ day periods with snow in late feb or March in 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018. Would be nice to lay down some glacier at the front of the cold period that’s coming. And I definitely think it’s coming.

It has a tendency to over amp systems which causes wild swings in the one feature we care about most. It’s h5 scores are good though! Lol i also think it’s percep bias. We don’t see it as often and it’s supposedly “good” so when it busts we notice more. The euro had a similar look just 24 hours ago. The fv3 had a bomb. The gfs went from a cutter to a snowstorm to a cutter to something in between in the last 36 hours. The gem...is the gem. So is it really any worse?