psuhoffman

“Not our year” doesn’t even begin to do justice.

Gameday https://imgur.com/gallery/DzMAxYf

Both....Go for broke, double or nothing.

No I think there is a possibility someone in our forum gets a small event (depending on your standards, Ji and Mdecoy should probably ignore it though). But even if DC manages a nice 2" event Tuesday the idea of reaching climo for winter is still in some jeopardy given the pattern look we are seeing. But even most of our really bad years had some snow at some point. When I say things don't look good I usually mean wrt to climo not that we won't get any snow at all.

GEFS looks like crap long range BUT at the very very end its showing a way out. The NAM seems to be flipping and we are one good wave break (maybe from a cutter) from getting the atlantic ridging to build over the top and link up with the Pac ridge...and that is when that western trough will broaden and come east. You can see it starting to move east at the very end in response to the changes up top. Now taking the day 16 GEFS is silly...just saying it is on its way to a better place by February IF that look is right. Thats all. BTW, just to clarify what the purpose of my pattern posts was. I am NOT saying there is no hope. I didn't even make a real forecast...I made a seasonal one and if those pattern analogs are right it will bust. I don't really make day 20 forecasts...thats silly. I was just posting the analogs to what we are looking at and showing what the past indicates the likely outcomes are. And yea, historically most of them turned into pretty bad winters. But some did not. I am rooting for the "some that turned out ok". But the numbers are what the numbers are, not a forecast, just a "this is what happened in the past when we had a similar pattern in January". It is not what I am saying will happen or what I am rooting for. But given the reality of the past results I have tempered my own expectations so that I am not frustrated everyday when things don't suddenly look like a winter wonderland on guidance. If we get a 1960 or 2006 type pattern flip GREAT and I will be even more excited given my current low expectations. BTW we can probably include 2007 in that flip category. It didn't work out great for us but we did get some snow AND the pattern was great in Feb 2007 even if the results left a lot to be desired. As I pointed out in the climo thread...luck has as much to do with our results as pattern sometimes.

I noticed that last night and they were a red flag when they never were enthusiastic for that anafront wave threat back in December and were right. Remember last winter the FV3 was too amped up almost every time. And the euro is often too amped also (it’s still the best we got but if it’s in error that is usually how). Just a caution flag. But there are a lot of discreet issues to be resolved in a fast flow so more model flip flops might be ahead.

The discussion you replied to was comparing the gfs and gefs. The implication of what you said was clear.

They are exactly as useful as they were a year ago when they were still linked to the old gfs op. They didn’t degrade somehow they just haven’t progressed. The new gefs will no doubt be an upgrade. But I guarantee you the current gefs is vastly superior at very long leads to relying on a single operational run. Of ANY model

Day 10 op euro would actually set up a good pattern day 11-15. Builds enough of a ridge bridge to suppress the pattern get the boundary near us. A little more HL blocking and this is suddenly a really good look. We need to see the ensembles start to go this way though. So far just an op run at range

I almost never bet on the Eagles because I know I am biased but if I was going to put money on the game I would take the Eagles. By no means do I think its a lock, Eagles arent a dominant team by any stretch and they are very banged up, but a few things make me think this is a favorable matchup for them. I think it is highly unlikely they turn the ball over 5 times again. It was a one score game last time despite 5 turnovers. The Eagles defense is very good at home. Seahawks defense isn't that good....I would be more concerned given the Eagles offensive limitations with the injuries against a defense that could totally squash them. Seahawks are run heavy and the eagles strength is stopping the run Seattle run's a lot of audibles at the line and that wont work in a playoff game in philly There have been 8 instances where a 9-7 or worse Division winner played a 11-5 or better wild card team...and the division winner is 6-2 in those games. Eagles are 5-0 all time as a playoff underdog at home. I think in the NFC Seattle is the best matchup for the Eagles. Still I only give them a slight advantage but if I did bet it would be on Philly. Next week they probably get destroyed on the road.

Sure but I am not going to spend as much time studying our fail patterns as I did our winning ones. I just don't hate myself that much. But I know off the top of my head what years and patterns really suck balls and put together a quick profile of some of the worst ones. First of all... while we can score a fluke snowfall in many patterns...the truth is there are way more looks that just don't work out often then there are ones that do. We are south of the mean northern stream jet in winter most of the time. It takes an anomalous pattern to get snowfall. The warm wet cold dry thing is real. Often in winter the only time the cold boundary gets south of us is after a wave passes and the flow behind it presses the boundary south. But without a favorable pattern the return flow ahead of the next wave is likely to press the boundary back to our north before it gets here. Basically the average storm track is to our north. But most patterns with some luck and some bootleg factor (like a Hudson ridge) working for us we can occasionally get snow. But most patterns without luck we can easily go with no snow as well. Bad Luck On top of that...sometimes we can just get unlucky in a perfect pattern. A storm gets suppressed, the next one is just slightly too warm, another develops off the coast...next thing you know we wasted a 2 week perfect pattern. The winter of 2007 would fall into that category. Look at this H5 pattern for Feb March was pretty good also for a good portion of it. THe first half was pretty crappy and I will use December 2006 as an example of a crap look later but even with a wasted Dec into Jan if you told me that would be our look for Feb and Mar I would take my chances. ANd while we did get some snow...we didn't cash in on the full potential and so the winter went down as a below avg snowfall year. There were 2 blockbuster coastals that year...one in Feb and one in Mar and both were just SLIGHTLY too warm at the mid levels and the big snowfall ended up a little NW of us. THere was one storm that had big potential but a PV lobe at the wrong time squashed it. And a couple others just failed to reach potential and ended up minor snowfalls. We mostly wasted a really good pattern. That has happened other times as well. On top of that, even more common, we waste a look that is OK, not great but definitely not awful and end up with a really bad result. YOu can look at the H5 for a year like 1981 and say...that looks ok. Not epic but you wouldn't think a horrible dud winter was coming, but it was. Truth is snow here is anomalous and luck wrt timing and discreet features that fall under the pattern level have a LOT to do with our results. Call it luck or chaos but pattern is only half the fight. So all that said I will focus on a couple patterns that just really really really suck and give us almost no chance for a significant snowfall, luck be damned. Some general observations First of all, any pattern that features a +NAM state without either a perfectly placed east based EPO ridge...or a really favorable PNA ridge is a fail pattern. We can score in a +NAM pattern but only with pacific help. If the AO/NAO are both awful (like right now) and the pacific inst in a very favorable state...that is a total fail pattern. That is because anything that pumps a SE ridge without resistance up top will not end well here. Additionally there is seasonal variance. The NAO is way more important later in the season. As the temperature profile tends to get colder across N. Amer later in the season and wavelengths start to shorten in Feb, and water temperatures cool along the coast, blocking on the atlantic side can influence and overcome the pacific pattern more. Early in the season we really need pacific help to have a good chance. But bad looks can be very temporary or transient so what patterns tend to give us that and lock in for an extended period of time. I assume that is what you mean because we can have a bad week even in the best winters...but what looks spell doom for a really long time and eat up a big chunk of our winter window. AK Vortex Pattern The first is an AK vortex pattern. This one is especially a killer early in the season. It can be overcome from Mid Jan onward but only with NAO blocking. Early it tends to be a problem even with blocking. Without blocking this look is a total fail pattern all winter long. You pointed out earlier that 2012 was a good example. December 2006 was also a perfect example. The last 10 days also featured this problem. I have the h5 below...the issue with this pattern is the flow under the AK vortex floods the continent with warm pac air. Without ideal blocking on the NAO side that mild air will flood across and not only will we be warm but there won't be any cold air anywhere near us. This pattern can take a LONG time to recover from. Even once the pattern improves we can waste a week just getting cold back onto our side of the hemisphere. Dec 2006 January 2012 Last week... Pac Ridge +NAM pattern The next one is the one we are about to go into according to all guidance. How long it lasts is yet unknown...but this is the absolute worst pattern we can possibly ever get into in winter, both because of how bad it can be...numerous examples of completely snowless months with this pattern...but also because of how stubborn it can be. Frankly this is the most common season destroyer of all the patterns. This one accounts for the majority of our total fail winters. This is the composite of many of our total fail years that fit this description, the Jan/Feb of 1950, 1951, 1959, 1973, 1989, 1990, 2002, 2008, 2013. All of these were single digit snowfall years at BWI except 1990 but all the snow fell that year BEFORE the pattern set in early January. look familiar? This one is real simple...that pac ridge digs the trough out west...which pumps the ridge in the east. Simple wave physics. Without extreme blocking to offer resistance that will push the thermal boundary well to our north. The reason this pattern can be so stubborn is an anomalous central pac ridge is usually a primary effect not a secondary effect. Meaning usually it is being driven by the tropical pattern in the central pacific and Maritime Continent regions. It's not a result of something that caused something that caused something...and so on. It is the direct result of a very major driver of the global pattern. IF that driver doesn't change...that ridge can park there for months. And that ridge loads a wave pattern over north america that sucks for us. It can only be overcome with extremely -NAM state to suppress the SE ridge. Too much of a good thing The last one I will cover that has accounted for some total crap years is the "too much of a good thing" pattern. I almost didn;t include this one as its a weird anomaly. This one is rare, usually only happening during a super nino. And if you just glance at the h5 it doesn't look that bad. And...it does increase the potential of a blockbuster storm. We had this pattern a few times and sometimes we get lucky and time up just enough cold to get a HECS. But if we dont....we can go long stretches simply too mild to get snow. The best examples are 1983 and 1998. Yea we had the HECS in 1983 but imagine if that one storm had not hit. The rest of the prime part of that winter was a total wasteland. Basically like 1998. The issue is hard to see just from h5 but its kinda there. The super nino. That pac trough is actually a bit much...if it was a little less anomalous and near the Aleutians not so expansive it would be perfect, and that is the typical moderate nino look. But in this case that extreme trough in the pac is flooding the CONUS with mile air. THe trough over the gulf is the juiced up STJ but the flow under the pac trough combined with the ridging across the US/Can border has flooded the US with mild air and cut off any cross polar flow to press cold into the pattern. The result is just a mild pattern with a good storm track that yields cold rain. It's not a mild look. Just not cold enough to snow. Pretty miserable really. This one suck but its not that common so I wouldn't worry too much. Plus it gives us the best chance of all the fail patterns at a fluke storm, and a BIG one at that. But since 1998 was one of our worst winters I figured I would throw in an explanation of why. There are other fail patterns...pretty much any look with a SE ridge and no blocking... but those first 2 are the main ones that can last a long time and wreck months or even a whole season. If anyone wants to add more great but I am depressed enough now so have a good night. Hope this was what you were looking for.

He is never wrong when he calls for cold and snow so we’re good.

Not even fringed.

Pretty good

You’re right. It was Jan 2013 that featured a big disgusting central pac ridge. 2012 was a consistent AK vortex with no NAO help. An AK vortex can be ok second half but only if you have a -NAO.

That looks kind of Feb 1993 2015ish. 1993 was GREAT just NW of this forum. My area northwest had 4 or 5 warning level events while DC was getting 1” changing to rain each time. 2015 worked out. That’s how that pattern goes. Gradient would set up somewhere and run waves. Get north of it and it’s a good look. End up south and it’s incredibly frustrating.

Im with you 100%. I’m just not sure the look we are getting now isn’t going to just run the table. It doesn’t always. But I guess for my own sanity I’m coming to grips with the fact that every so often (1989, 2002, 2008, 2012)we get a year where a really strong central pac ridge just wrecks the whole winter, and maybe this is one. If things flip better I will be excited but that way if it doesn’t I’m not frustrated every week until April. Get the frustration out of the way now and then just accept whatever comes. But to each their own way of coping!

It is. First of all there is some historical support for this week maybe working. There were a few modest snow events at the start of the awful pac ridge patterns in the analogs. And even though the pattern has sucked we are in flux. It was mostly an awful northern pac pattern that did us in the last 2 weeks. Early in the season that’s a killer. Later that becomes less a problem. But the central pac ridge is really just getting going now. After that though (and there are some good signs today and it’s not no hope that isn’t what I’m saying) I think people would be best to accept there is a chance that look locks in the rest of winter. History says (even if we add in the more hopeful but less comparable analogs I found) there is a greater than 50% chance it does. The top analogs showing up day after day are 1989, 2002, and 2008! Im not saying abandon hope. 2006 and 2007 sneak in there sometimes too and they both got somewhat better. If the NAO flips strongly negative all bets are off but we both know that’s rare when we enter mid winter with a raging positive AO/NAO combo. Not impossible but rare. But if we expect the worst it will only make it that much better if we get a snowy period later. But I fear some weenie souls might go crazy if they are checking in everyday expecting things to improve when there is a decent chance it won’t and this is the crap look we get straight through winter.

Gefs doesn’t have the Kara block (which is unlikely to be correct at that range) but it is heading towards right anyways. It’s building a -NAO and weakening and retrograding the pac ridge. What we need is the right in the NAO to be stronger than the one in the pac and then we will see the western trough broaden and slide east. It’s almost there at the end on this run.

Kara Block FTW

Given the +3 AO I almost expected to see the QBO had stalled. Once near 0 like it is now, in descending mode it should be helpful. I said back in fall that I wasn’t sure how much climate change had rendered seasonal analogs useless and this year would be telling imo. Because the climate models all said +NAM warm winter. They seem to have nailed it. But a warm neutral enso following a nino, descending QBO flipping, low solar, Atlantic Tripole, northeast pac warm pool winter should be at least somewhat cold/snowy. But recently other historically snowy enso neutral years had gone more crap. I posed the question, was that just bad luck or an indication enso neutral years are skewing less snowy in the new climate regime. If this year fails to me it leans more climate change then luck imo.

You will be doing significantly better in 2 weeks.

Good point...Denver does suck though.

I think the Ravens are the best and most likely team to win the SB. But don't sleep on KC. They have a good enough offense to win any one game in a shootout. Any given Sunday!

If we get no AO/NAO help neither regression or progression will save us. We would need an almost complete reversal of the pac pattern to work without any AO/NAO help. We would want a trough exactly where the ridge is. History suggests with that anomalous a ridge there, some progression/regression is realistic but not a total flip of the pac pattern. We actually had a bit of A0/NAO help last year, not as much as the long range guidance kept teasing us with...and so not enough to get the pattern good...just enough to keep it from being total crap. But with a hostile AO/NAO that pac is a total dumpster fire. We would need so much to change in a way that is highly unlikely there without getting a NAM state reversal that its not even really worth worrying about it imo. Just not gonna happen. Basically, if the NAM stays positive the rest of winter we will very likely end up with very little snow.