psuhoffman

Talk about luck...the western ridge is transient, in place for all of 12 hours basically but it traverses the perfect location at exactly the right time. Along with a good vort track. The whole pattern is junk but if you only look at the conus for that one moment frozen in time it looks close to the pna ridge +AO snow composite.

This part cracks me up “the snow could be heavy at times, daytime accumulation of 35-41” possible” Could be heavy at times??? ya think?

Someone says hi

Yea but after Betelgeuse explodes tomorrow it’s not sun angle we have to worry about, we’re talking nova angle!

By the time the HRRR is in “useful” range you’re better off just using real time observations and radar to make adjustments to more reliable guidance and figure it out.

It has no useful range.

I’m still nervous about being fringed

It was a good run. Ejected the vortex away from AK which was my main gripe with 0z and built ridging into epo. First legit good run in a while. I was just kidding about Ji taking a 4 week hiatus.

Dude it almost worked.

Check back in 4 weeks!

Thanks. I haven’t had a chance to really analyze but yesterday it seemed parts of our area were also being helped some by moisture convergence along an inverted trough type feature. That can sometimes lead to an unexpected surprise

That’s the best look we’ve seen. 12z Gefs is hot garbage. No way to spin it it’s at least 10 days away from good at day 16 and not even heading the right way. The geps is an ok pattern. Problem with the eps last night it had too much trough near AK. With the pac ridge. AK trough and no block it would transition us right back into a pac puke pattern. We would trade a SE ridge for pac puke zonal pattern. No thanks.

This...we have been in a pac puke pattern from an AK vortex. That isn’t good for the pac NW either. It’s also not good for us. Right now we are in a temporary flux between patterns and that’s why we have a shot as a minor snowfall tomorrow. But the coming pattern is good for the west bad for us. But the pac coast needs an anomaly to get snow even in a good pattern.

I know you aren't saying its "good" just better...but my fear with that look is that even if we got a colder shot as the trough slides east...with that look in the PAC, along with the EPO/AO/NAO it would be extremely short lived and unlikely to include much snow. IMO that pattern rolled forward the CONUS is about to get blasted by pacific air again like before xmas. What is left of the western trough would roll through and then we would go zonal. A week after that pot I would suspect we would see a big blue ball up top and a ring or red around it across the mid latitudes. Very 2002 like...that is how that year evolved. We are seeing a singular point in time at day 15 which looks "better" but I don't think that look is heading anywhere positive for snow opportunities. Maybe "better" than the absolutely worst look imaginable we will be in for about a week before that...but if we were in anything close to a decent pattern now looking at that in the long ranges we would be pretty upset about that look. ETA: ironically even though the GFS looks like a hot mess on wheels at day 16, its evolving the pattern in a direction that at least has a fraction more hope/possibility beyond that time period.

I have flat out said it so people can hate on me if they want...but if we get to Jan 15 or so and we are still looking at what we are looking at now...then yea I agree with that. I showed how this currently pattern in January...more than 50% of the time can persist all winter. But the minority of years where this pattern in January did flip better in February the signs of that were showing up well before February. In all of those examples by the last week of January the pattern was in transition. If we get to the point where we can see to February and it still looks like utter crap with a central pac ridge and +AO we are entering territory where no previous example turned out good. We aren't there YET... still another 10 days or so to see real improvements before we are to that point, but the clock is ticking.

It’s a nice vort pass but we are being helped on guidance by enhanced moisture convergence along an inverted trough type feature. Those can be difficult to resolve until very short range.

And you didn’t want to post the SREF in the main thread. Sheesh Nice trends tonight for sure. The compevt nature actually helps. An event with .25 qpf over 8 hours wouldnt work with the marginal temps. Get it to dump for a few hours and it could fall our way.

Yea they did that. My dad was at the game. He said it was the end of a miserable season after several miserable seasons and the team was playing like garbage. Then the eagles took a fan from the stands dressed up like Santa that looked drunk and awful and decided to walk him out on the field at halftime and the fans booed him and some threw snowballs at him. It was also a long time ago and in response to an awful owner who was ruining a team for a passionate fan base. Not excusing it. I’ve been at some eventful games. I was at the body bag game and the bounty bowl. I was there when they pelted the Cowboys with snowballs nonstop the whole game. I’ve been to some giants games that turned into royal rumbles in the stands. Someome dragginf a dead deer carcass around the stadium ramp behire a game against the bucs. I was at the Monday night game that was the impetus to have a courtroom in the stadium. Someone shot a flair gun across the stadium, there were so many fights security couldn’t keep up, and a group of fans charged the field and attempted to throw beer at the referee after a bad call. But all of that was a long time ago also. 80s and 90s. And that was a different time when stupid shenanigans weren’t taken so seriously. If you look at arrests at nfl football games it was about the same in most Midwest and northeast cities. comparable at eagles, Browns, Steelers, Giants, and patriots games at that time. Lest we forget back then the patriots had a night game and after the game fans tore down the goal posts and carried them out of the stadium and electrocuted themselves when they ran them into power lines. Ray Didinger who was a beat reporter at the time went to a giants game and had his windows busted and a F philly sign left in his car. There was a lot of stupid back then. But I think between the Santa thing that got national press and then Buddy Ryan being a pompous ass it became an easy scoop. But my more recent experience with the eagles is positive. I’ve been to dozens of games in the last 20 years since Laurie bought the team without that kind of atmosphere anymore. It’s still loud and passionate but less of the borderline crazy violence. What I remember lately is how the whole city comes together for the team. Unlike lots of other places the eagles own Philadelphia. The city stops for games. It’s not just some fans. Almost everyone is an eagles fan. Little girls scream eagles chants and random people start singing the fight song on the street. I remember walking back to broad street from the liberty bell the day of the super bowl and my 2 year old son was singing fly eagles fly the whole way and everyone we passed gave him high fives and started joining in. Even when I’m not in philly if I pass an eagles fan when my wearing my hat I’ll get a chant or a high five. That night of the SB random people were hugging me on the street and singing songs. It’s like a family thing but with a family of 4 million people. Im sure there are similar experiences for other fan bases. But that’s what I love. It’s a family tradition and a positive community experience. Yea one idiot ate horse sh!t and some other moron ran into a pole and that got a lot of press but imo most of the widespread really bad behavior was in the distant past.

Laurie is a great owner and great civic leader. Takes giving back to the city very seriously and has made his team a part of the community in every way. While I think the eagles fans rep is often a cheap exaggerated story (a lot of blue collar nfl towns have a rough fan base and do stupid things at games) there are definitely some stupid asshat eagles fans. But the team itself is a class organization from the owner to the coach on down.

Wouldn’t it be nice to see Doug get to coach a healthy playoff team? I am convinced he is a great coach. It’s amazing what he has done 3 years with a mash unit by the end each time. Would be nice to see him with an Eagles team that somewhat resembles the “plan” when season starts in the playoffs.

Oh and the idiots making fun of Wentz and calling him soft are a disgrace. And eagles fans whining about the refs is soft too. Yea they might have missed that call on Wentz head shot but it wouldn’t have changed anything. A 15 yard penalty wouldn’t have brought him back nor changed the outcome.

Dude post that shit. I seriously need some good news. I don’t care if it’s the SREF. I’ll take an super secret basement run of the CRAS at this point.

Proud of my team. Sad a season is over but have no right to expect better results with what they had to overcome. Found this quote from the game summary just lol. “By the end of the game, un-retired McCown’s weapons included Greg Ward, Josh Perkins, Robert Davis, Richard Rogers, Shelton Gibson, and Deontay Burnett. All had been unemployed at some point this season.”

They are trying. I’ll give them that. Im shocked this is a game to the end.

I am proud of them. I think Doug is a great coach. But there is a limit to what is possible to overcome. Currently playing with only 4 actual starters on offense and 6 on defense.