psuhoffman

Those are legal now, didn’t ya hear?

Someone tell the Ravens their bye is over.

I’m sure my father felt the same way.

As an Eagles fan I know exactly how you feel. But if/when you finally get the monkey off your back it makes it all the sweeter.

Remember all those times we talked about where we need an epo right to be centered to get snow. Like this... signs of an active stj cutting under doesn’t hurt either.

Gefs slightly worse for next weekend but not a significant change. After that is says suppression is the bigger issue for the day 10/11 threat. Shifted the trough axis slightly too far southeast. But for day 10 it’s noise. Big signal for the threat as the blocking relaxes day 12-14. Goes bonkers with the HL ridge around day 10

Batman

If we get a blizzard I could dig out the backyard fire pit and have a blizzard BBQ! When the novelty wears off we can wander into the basement and shoot some pool. Otherwise I will try again this spring for sure. I know @HighStakes and @losetoa6would be game.

I would just be like “not sure what I think about this run”.

Bring over some of those delicious burgers and all is forgotten!!! But yea we’re all just having fun waiting for the flip.

I moved it.

It’s good to be King. And a little bit of fun is different from the crap that initiated posting guidelines. Did you really want that 20 page discussion I had with mdecoy in the main thread because that’s where it was in past years. We had the same talk this year only it didn’t clog up the pattern discussion. Progress.

There are 3 discreet windows showing on the gefs and eps. The epo block and ridge across Canada is forcing the system next weekend further south than you would typically expect where it starts out. After that a threat early the following week. Look at the ridge axis out west as the next system dives in. Good ridge bridge over the top. Classic look. Last threat is around day 15. Southern branch feature that cuts under the western ridge and across as the blocking relaxes. Classic.

Eps Mean for next weekends storm.

Eps is another weenie run. Better for next weekend. Significantly. Good looks after also. Supports the idea of HL blocking day 8-13

That one will have a hard time accumulating on roads in the district during the day! We will need some heavy rates to overcome solar, which by then the sun will be like 3” from our face according to Avant Regent.

Euro goes berserk with HL blocking day 7-10 also.

This is the weenies snow mean for a run when all the snow is week 2.

This look right here showes up A LOT as a precursor to mid atlantic snows when I did my examination of each one. A strong ridge near Baffin with ridge bridge fading to a ridge west of the Hudson was a pretty common snow look. After that @showmethesnowpointed this out and gefs continues to show the jet undercutting the western ridge which is a much better look that a full latitude ridge.

The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event.

I knew you were kidding. Im not totally shocked to see the suddenly flip up top. It fits the analogs that did turn better. It also fits phase 7. The same processes that are helping progress the pac ridge also pressure the TPV. So it makes sense. Just highlights the nwp can’t resolve the HL past about day 10 with any accuracy.

I’m sure you will get a calm level headed response.

The gfs had a suppressed storm most runs of the last couple days there. Don’t worry too much about discreet features at day 12 on an op run.

I’m going to spend the rest of the day worried about the Uber block cutter on the op gfs at day 12

2 weeks ago when I looked at past similar pac patterns and how they progressed it struck me how almost all the comps that evolved to a good look were accompanied by at least a period of blocking in the AO or NAO domain during the transition. A few days ago when the guidance showed the pattern progressing to an Epo ridge without a flip in the NAM state I was like “that’s not how it’s happened before but that works”. Now suddenly a more historically supported progression is showing up on guidance. As usual climo beats guidance at long range most of the time.